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#21 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:34 AM

In my opinion, it’s not a collapse in the sense of win percentage, but it’s definitely a collapse in the sense that the front office probably assumed that they had this thing wrapped up with a bow tied around it.

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:35 AM

I don't like how things are currently turning out, but honestly, had the Twins run away with the division like they appeared to be doing early in the year, I wouldn't have felt terribly comfortable come the playoffs. I like that they have to face sustained adversity. If they battle through it and come out on top, I'm going to feel better about their chances of winning a playoff series.

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#23 Woody Wins

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:40 AM

This possible ending would be historic, but not as bad as it seems to have been made out to be:

 

1978 Yankees down 14 games on July 20th

1995 Mariners down 13 games on Aug 3rd

1993 Braves down 10 games on July 23rd

1969 Mets down 10 games on Aug 14th 

And the mentioned Giants down 13 games on Aug 12th

 

But I believe the Twins will rally and when everyone is healthy by Aug 26th, they will roll on and win the division.

 

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#24 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:41 AM

 

Detroit went 13-16 in August, 12-16 in September/October. They lost their last four regular season games to cough up a division lead.

 

So yeah, collapse. Whether you end up with 95 games or 85, matters not. A collapse is a collapse.

 

Not to mention, their division lead was 3.5 on May 27th. Just not over the Twins.

 

If the Twins end up not winning the ALC, there's really no other way to describe it, IMO. An 11.5 game lead. 

 

I'll probably wait to see the final win totals. The Twins were never going to win 120 games; in my opinion whether you win 95 games or 85 games matters a great deal.

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#25 Dantes929

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:45 AM

 



For those that say it's not a "collapse". It's potentially a historic collapse.

Ok, that is a rather misleading but interesting fact. I know for certain the Twins were 12 games back on July 15, 2006 and ended up in 1st place. Turns out it is factually true because the Twins were in 3rd place at the time. In fact. on August 7th the Twins were 10.5 games out of 1st place and still in 3rd place at the time. Makes me wonder if other teams were as far behind and in 3rd or even 4th place before making their come backs which would make this whole conversation a historical oddity rather than historic collapse. If the Twins, like the Tigers that year, gave up that big a lead but still got to the WS will we call it a historic collapse?

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#26 Dantes929

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:51 AM

 

I'll probably wait to see the final win totals. The Twins were never going to win 120 games; in my opinion whether you win 95 games or 85 games matters a great deal.

This.In theory the twins could end up 111-51 and still end up in 2nd place. I guess everyone has their own standards but in my opinion you can have a historic comeback without having a historic collapse and vice versa.

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#27 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 10:59 AM

This possible ending would be historic, but not as bad as it seems to have been made out to be:
 
1978 Yankees down 14 games on July 20th
1995 Mariners down 13 games on Aug 3rd
1993 Braves down 10 games on July 23rd
1969 Mets down 10 games on Aug 14th 
And the mentioned Giants down 13 games on Aug 12th
 
But I believe the Twins will rally and when everyone is healthy by Aug 26th, they will roll on and win the division.

Good post. Hopefully this helps explain why I was so bothered by them selling last July.

There are also plenty of near misses.

The 2005 season might be a good comp. In 2005, the White Sox had a 15.0 game lead on Cleveland on August 1st. By late September, that lead got as slim as 1.5 games, with a season ending series against Cleveland looming. Alas, Cleveland could not make up that final difference, and the Sox won the division and then the World Series.
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#28 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:05 AM

Ok, that is a rather misleading but interesting fact. I know for certain the Twins were 12 games back on July 15, 2006 and ended up in 1st place. Turns out it is factually true because the Twins were in 3rd place at the time. In fact. on August 7th the Twins were 10.5 games out of 1st place and still in 3rd place at the time. Makes me wonder if other teams were as far behind and in 3rd or even 4th place before making their come backs which would make this whole conversation a historical oddity rather than historic collapse. If the Twins, like the Tigers that year, gave up that big a lead but still got to the WS will we call it a historic collapse?


I read a stat that 35% of all stats are misleading to prove a point...

Just like here! It's amazing the stats and mental gymnastics to justify blowing an 11.5 game lead in 2 months isn't a big deal.
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#29 ashbury

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:15 AM

I don't like how things are currently turning out, but honestly, had the Twins run away with the division like they appeared to be doing early in the year, I wouldn't have felt terribly comfortable come the playoffs. I like that they have to face sustained adversity. If they battle through it and come out on top, I'm going to feel better about their chances of winning a playoff series.

The team hasn't felt like they're ready to win, for some time. They feel more like 1984 than 1987 to me, if you want an analogy. I think the scenario you describe is unlikely, but would be a better indication of being ready to win than the first two months of the season were.

So, in conclusion, what was your question again?


#30 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:16 AM

I read a stat that 35% of all stats are misleading to prove a point...

Just like here! It's amazing the stats and mental gymnastics to justify blowing an 11.5 game lead in 2 months isn't a big deal.


I mean the Twins are only a little bit below .500 since June 2nd. They obviously have no fault in this whatsoever.
When you play almost .500 ball and that's still not good enough, you just have to tip your cap to the other team.
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#31 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:17 AM

I think it's simple. If they continue playing .500 baseball the last 40 games they are likely are not going to make the playoffs, imo.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:33 AM

I mean the Twins are only a little bit below .500 since June 2nd. They obviously have no fault in this whatsoever.
When you play almost .500 ball and that's still not good enough, you just have to tip your cap to the other team.


Is this sarcasm?

#33 SwainZag

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:42 AM

 

I mean the Twins are only a little bit below .500 since June 2nd. They obviously have no fault in this whatsoever.
When you play almost .500 ball and that's still not good enough, you just have to tip your cap to the other team.

 

Twins are 2 games over .500 since June 2nd, fwiw.

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#34 Dome Dogg

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:50 AM

 

Going all the way back to the first Terry Ryan years..... Certainly since this front office got here.

Going into next year they have Berrios and?

Hey I am really expecting Gibby to turn the corner in his age 32 season next year. Honestly drives me nuts how some people still see/treat him like some young prospect. 

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#35 bighat

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 11:57 AM

 



For those that say it's not a "collapse". It's potentially a historic collapse.

 

It's also a historic run by the Indians, and history may focus more on their unbelievable hot streak. Because if they do win the division, it certainly will be referenced a ton.

 

"Folks, while this 2026 Charlotte Marlins team is a whopping 10 games out of first, just remember those 2019 Indians came back from a bigger hole, so there's a chance folks". It's something you'll hear for ages.

 

Losing the division looked so improbable earlier this season that there were many articles on many websites that discussed the Twins playoff rotations. Heck there was even one here last week!

 

There's a real chance this team does not make the playoffs. This team may be fighting for their post-season lives by next week.

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#36 scottz

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:06 PM

 

Not allowing a no-out grand slam in the 10th inning would have also helped.

 

I'm kinda done with the whole Diaz thing, horse was dead by Sunday night. It's Tuesday morning already! Let's win today!

I have my own horse though. There was still some labored breathing this morning, so I gave it another thump.

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#37 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:17 PM

Very misleading, intentionally...……..but hey it worked.


This is only teams with a lead that big "over the 2nd-place team!"

Got it?— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1161280452491173888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw[/quote]

' class="bbc_url">@[quote]
I knew people would misunderstand this note. There's a longer list of teams have been 11 1/2 games back and finished first. Different list!

This is only teams with a lead that big "over the 2nd-place team!"

Got it?— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/1161280452491173888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw[/quote]


Yes I read that. He's describing the exact situation the Twins are in this year, no? Don't see the White Sox making a triumphant come back.

#38 Number3

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:18 PM

Twins are 15-14 post All Star. Indians, recent class of the Central have been on an inevitable roll Can't call it a collapse until Sep 30. As the famous historian said,"Its not over till its over". No question, if the Twins can't make up some lost ground against certain teams left on their schedule and hold their own against the other teams it would be fair to say that they over achieved early and made up for it later.

 

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#39 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:28 PM

 

I mean the Twins are only a little bit below .500 since June 2nd. They obviously have no fault in this whatsoever.
When you play almost .500 ball and that's still not good enough, you just have to tip your cap to the other team.

Yeah, because that's what people are saying. It's disingenuous comments like this that just create a lot of nonsense on this board. Anyone with half a brain understands that the Twins play over the last 2 months has played a part in them dropping to 2nd place. Apparently it takes the other half to consider that the Indians playing at an over .700 clip in the same span is also very significant. 

 

But hey, no middle ground, pick a side and grab the pitch fork. 

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#40 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:30 PM

 

Yes I read that. He's describing the exact situation the Twins are in this year, no? Don't see the White Sox making a triumphant come back.

 

Sure, but it's hardly historic to blow and 11 1/2 game lead. Unless its historic semantics. 

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