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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/4): Twins Cap Off The Sweep - Smeltzer Style

devin smeltzer jake cave jason castro luis arraez eddie rosario
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#21 Aerodeliria

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 08:43 PM

The Polka-man delivers. Strike up the music and have a good time!


#22 Aerodeliria

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 08:46 PM

I love winning the low scoring games.

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#23 IndianaTwin

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 08:54 PM

...Looking forward, does Smeltzer take Pineda's fifth spot in the ro? Based on today's performance, heck yeah! Is Pineda sitting on a hard innings limit for this season? If so, then I pick Smeltzer for #5, with Thorpe and Stewart on deck. I'd even keep Thorpe in the bullpen. Long relief is valuable.


Assuming Pineda’s IL stint is short and just precautionary, no, Pineda doesn’t come out of the rotation. Ten of his last 14 starts were quality starts, and three of the remainder were three runs in 5 innings or more. He’s six outs from having 13 of 14 QS. He has a 3.48 ERA in that stretch and nearly a 5:1 k/bb rate.

Perez would probably be the odd man out if they do want to keep Smeltzer and no one is hurt. If Smeltzer throws well in his next start, I actually predict an IL stint for Perez once Pineda is back.
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#24 jorgenswest

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 09:05 PM

Next up for Smeltzer is the Indians.

A quality start should earn him several more.

#25 IndianaTwin

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 09:07 PM

Note also that we’ve reached the point where there are only 25 more games until rosters expand and Smeltzer can stay up, even if they keep both Perez and Pineda in the rotation.

#26 Monticore

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 09:09 PM

Smeltzer, Duffy, Romo, Rogers, a winning formula.
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#27 jokin

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 10:24 PM

 

Assuming Pineda’s IL stint is short and just precautionary, no, Pineda doesn’t come out of the rotation. Ten of his last 14 starts were quality starts, and three of the remainder were three runs in 5 innings or more. He’s six outs from having 13 of 14 QS. He has a 3.48 ERA in that stretch and nearly a 5:1 k/bb rate.

Perez would probably be the odd man out if they do want to keep Smeltzer and no one is hurt. If Smeltzer throws well in his next start, I actually predict an IL stint for Perez once Pineda is back.

 

This is right about how I see it.

IL for Perez or BP. His next start against the Braves is probably make or break for him.

After that, he is scheduled to start against the Brewers a week from Tuesday, the SAME day that Pineda could first pitch coming off of the IL list.

Edited by jokin, 04 August 2019 - 10:25 PM.

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#28 jimbo92107

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 10:34 PM

 

 If Smeltzer throws well in his next start, I actually predict an IL stint for Perez once Pineda is back.

Exactly, because Perez hurt that arm-kinda ankle thing again. ;-)

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#29 Riverbrian

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 05:49 AM

 

Assuming Pineda’s IL stint is short and just precautionary, no, Pineda doesn’t come out of the rotation. Ten of his last 14 starts were quality starts, and three of the remainder were three runs in 5 innings or more. He’s six outs from having 13 of 14 QS. He has a 3.48 ERA in that stretch and nearly a 5:1 k/bb rate.

Perez would probably be the odd man out if they do want to keep Smeltzer and no one is hurt. If Smeltzer throws well in his next start, I actually predict an IL stint for Perez once Pineda is back.

 

Why mess with the IL?

 

Doesn't Perez in the pen... potentially improve the pen? 

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#30 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 05:51 AM

Smeltzer's BABIP? .208. Lucky.

#31 DutchFarmer

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 06:32 AM

Do you think the Royals version of this site had their headline say something like, "Royals swept in an unfortunate Smeltzing accident."? 


#32 rdehring

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 06:58 AM

As impressed as I was in his first start against the Brewers.Can he repeat it next time out against the Indians?If I recall, he wasn't as good last time in his second start...also against the Indians, wasn't it?Regardless, I really like what I see.Reminds me of those Braves pitchers back whenever, Maddux and Glavine.Neither threw all that hard, but were the definition of being pitchers.Let's hope the Twins got some lightening in a bottle in that Dozier trade and get to go ahead and release it on the American League.

 

But let's not forget the other rookie who made nearly an equal contribution yesterday, Mr. Arraez.After a couple games where I thought he struggled a bit, was back doing what he does so well.Anyone who thinks he won't be on the 25-man roster and playing regularly over the next seven weeks is going to be proven wrong.Add one very fine defensive play and you have one big contribution to a win over a tough KC team.

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#33 puckstopper1

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 07:00 AM

 

Just curious. Does anyone know why the Twins haven't used their home whites yet this homestand or at all in the last one?

 

My understanding is that the Starting Pitcher gets to choose the uniforms.I guess they feel more comfortable in the colored jerseys at this time.

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#34 Doctor Wu

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 07:47 AM

The newly improved bullpen? Well, at least Romo has looked good so far. Count me as one that's still a bit nervous about the effectiveness and stability of this bullpen.


#35 Trov

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 09:03 AM

What I like best about Smeltzer is his willingness to do what is asked of him and to adjust.When Twins acquired him he stated he wanted to start, and Twins told him what he needed to make it happen.He worked his butt off and it is paying off.  

 

Some feel entitled to positions, or will not listen to the adjustments needed to succeed, he is not one of them.Kid is clearly a fighter, I will take a fighter over someone who profiles as a top guy.Here is to hoping his first few starts are not just smoke and mirrors but he can keep it up. 

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#36 spycake

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 10:43 AM

Smeltzer has certainly impressed so far.

 

But does anyone get a 2009-2010 Duensing vibe from Smeltzer? Down the stretch in 2009, Duensing was pretty strong as a SP -- 5-1, 2.73 ERA in 9 starts -- before he finished with an uninspiring start vs NYY in the playoffs.

 

2010, Duensing was moved to the rotation again just before the trade deadline and almost certainly contributed more to our division title (7-2, 3.05 ERA in 13 starts) than Matt Capps. But Duensing then capped it off with another poor start in the postseason vs NYY.

 

I guess Smeltzer did neutralize NYY once already, albeit in a mop-up appearance. Cleveland should be an interesting test, he gave up 4 HR to them last time.

 

ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-

2009 Duensing 62/88/99 (as a SP)

2010 Duensing 73/95/93 (as a SP)

2019 Smeltzer 49/98/100

 

https://www.fangraph...tdate=&enddate=


#37 jorgenswest

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 10:58 AM

Duensing was 26 when he arrived so there was a lot less time to improve as a major leaguer. I also don’t think using ERA or its estimators which require a very large sample is helpful in comparing.

If Duensing is his floor though it is a good return for a Dozier rental.

#38 Doomtints

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 11:11 AM

 

Smeltzer's BABIP? .208. Lucky.

 

It's true that yesterday's game was won with defense. It's nice to see the Twins can play defense once in a while.

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#39 spycake

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 11:20 AM

 

Duensing was 26 when he arrived so there was a lot less time to improve as a major leaguer. I also don’t think using ERA or its estimators which require a very large sample is helpful in comparing.

If Duensing is his floor though it is a good return for a Dozier rental.

I'm not picking on Smeltzer, or the Dozier trade, or trying to project him to Duensing type career. And obviously Smeltzer only has 27 MLB IP so far, so we're not at a great confidence level with any of these stats.

 

Just noting the similarities, and pumping the brakes in my head on the thought that he should be a permanent rotation member right now, especially in the postseason.

 

Here's another stat look, K% vs league SP K%

2009 Duensing 15.3% vs 16.6%

2019 Smeltzer 20.4% vs 21.9%

 

Same comparison for first AAA season

2007 Duensing 17.8% vs 18.2% (age 24)

2019 Smeltzer 23.1% vs 22.7% (age 23)


#40 Doomtints

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 11:21 AM

 

 

Smeltzer has certainly impressed so far.

 

But does anyone get a 2009-2010 Duensing vibe from Smeltzer? Down the stretch in 2009, Duensing was pretty strong as a SP -- 5-1, 2.73 ERA in 9 starts -- before he finished with an uninspiring start vs NYY in the playoffs.

 

2010, Duensing was moved to the rotation again just before the trade deadline and almost certainly contributed more to our division title (7-2, 3.05 ERA in 13 starts) than Matt Capps. But Duensing then capped it off with another poor start in the postseason vs NYY.

 

I guess Smeltzer did neutralize NYY once already, albeit in a mop-up appearance. Cleveland should be an interesting test, he gave up 4 HR to them last time.

 

ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-

2009 Duensing 62/88/99 (as a SP)

2010 Duensing 73/95/93 (as a SP)

2019 Smeltzer 49/98/100

 

https://www.fangraph...tdate=&enddate=

 

I don't know where the Duensing comp comes from, that's an interesting choice.

 

It is unlikely that Smeltzer would start a playoff game for the Twins.

 

I will say this, he has enough stuff to where hitters are still trying to figure him out. He has a nice number of "strikes looking." As a flyball pitcher, if this piece changes he may not fare so well.

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