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Article: Trade Deadline Thread: How Far Would You Go to Add an Ace?

noah syndergaard byron buxton royce lewis alex kirilloff derek falvey
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#41 spycake

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 09:46 AM

The problem is that there seems to be no decision on whether they are buyers or sellers. You trade prospects during the offseason for Diaz/Cano. That would indicate that you are in "win now mode". For the last month you're in sell mode as you're actively looking to move Syndergaard, Wheeler and Diaz. Then you turn around and grab Stroman for prospects. Then you flip Vargas. Taken in a vacuum all these moves make sense. But they're not in a vacuum. One leads to another and you've got a team flipping back and forth between selling and buying. THEN you've got players and coaches going after reporters, you've already fired one of your coaches and your manager is probably out at the end of the year. Now maybe I'm reading too much into it but there definitely doesn't seem to be a current strategy to make the Mets organization better. As someone posted earlier, another exec has compared their organizational strategy to "a kindergarten student finger painting". You can disagree with that characterization if you want, but I feel pretty comfortable with stating that I'm not sure they have a plan.

Also don't know why you brought the buxton thing up. I've never mentioned it.


The Mets were buyers last offseason, and are still buyers for 2020 and beyond, but have become sellers for 2019 as they have fallen out of the race. Every move they have made is perfectly consistent with that. Buyer/seller doesn't have to be a static, binary thing.

Keep in mind they're not "actively shopping" Syndergaard with any kind of urgency -- they are looking for an elite return on him (i.e. Mackenzie Gore, or Lewis/Kirilloff), which again makes sense given their position.

Sorry for mentioning the Buxton thing, but a lot of posters seem to be using that as a cue to bash the Mets FO right now.

#42 Tom Froemming

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 09:49 AM

 

Have you considered the possibility that asking about Buxton was perhaps the Mets way of giving the Twins "a dose of our own medicine"? It's still quite possible the Twins were unwilling to commit two top prospects to a Syndergaard package, you know. (Especially given the delayed, Twins-sided reporting of this Buxton thing.)

Sure, but my overall stance is if the Mets are engaging in conversations about Syndergaard, just keep things moving. The way La Velle's source painted it is the Mets asked for Buxton and the Twins disengaged and view him as no longer viable. 

 

I'm not trying to suggest that plan I laid out would work, but if I'm the Twins I'm going to be talking to the Mets for as long as they're willing to listen. 

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#43 spycake

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:02 AM

Sure, but my overall stance is if the Mets are engaging in conversations about Syndergaard, just keep things moving. The way La Velle's source painted it is the Mets asked for Buxton and the Twins disengaged and view him as no longer viable.

I'm not trying to suggest that plan I laid out would work, but if I'm the Twins I'm going to be talking to the Mets for as long as they're willing to listen.


That's fine, but I strongly suspect the Buxton inquiry came after the Lewis/Kirilloff question. If you want to re-engage, I suspect the Twins just need a different answer to the Lewis/Kirilloff question, rather than a counter to the Buxton thing.
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#44 Dantes929

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:12 AM

 

That's what people said about the beginning of the M and M era. There are no guarantees of health. This team has one legit starting pitcher under contract for next year....

2002-2010 was a pretty long window and I enjoyed it immensely. The starting pitching is concerning so I would be willing to give up some minor league quality depth to get Thor and/or Lynn and resign Pineda and maybe Gibson if reasonable.  

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#45 mikelink45

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:13 AM

I can only say this isn't even s negotiation it is a discussion of a robbery. Pitchers are so volatile I'm always concerned about how they will turn out on any kind of way trade or long-term signing. The Mets know he has not performed as expected. If he had the discussion wouldn't even happen.

I am surprised at how many list Garver in their trade scenarios. I value a catcher as high as a pitcher.

Looking at Lewis and Kiriloff The question is which of them will we need in the next 3 years? Both of their positions are well covered right now, but do we expect Sano to stay at 3rd? Both are extremely valuable but if there isn't room for them on the roster then they become expendable. Right now they both have a potential to be that which makes them more available for trades. However putting both in one trade is not something I would consider
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#46 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:34 AM

Wow, Mets asked for Buxton in the Syndegaard deal? Seriously that's just wrong on so many levels.

And the Blue Jays' asking price for Stroman demanded that one of either Lewis or Kiriloff be included? And then they took the garbage pile prospects from the Mets? I don't get it.

MLBTradeRumors article says Twins have pivoted to look for more bullpen arms now. Okay, okay, let's get some already and play ball!


Of course, actual scouting services rate Kay as a pretty good prospect, not garbage.

#47 jud6312

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:39 AM

 

Most people seem to think the Mets did all right in the Stroman trade, even if the timing was a bit of a surprise. The Vargas salary dump seems fine. The deGrom extension is all right in its early stages.

They did poorly in the Cano trade for sure, although that was basically just a massive overpay for a closer.

 

It's not just the Cano/Diaz trade, but Lowrie and Familia; the stuff with Callaway, Vargas, and the reporter; the chair throwing meeting a few weeks back; tossing the pitching and bullpen coaches from the already sinking ship, only to not have improved results. 

 

If you look at the New York media's coverage, it's pretty much been a train wreck aside from committing to some of their younger talent (Alonso and McNeil, more specifically).


#48 bighat

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:42 AM

 

Of course, actual scouting services rate Kay as a pretty good prospect, not garbage.

 

Neither are listed in the Top 100 prospect list from MLB pipeline. I think Kay is just outside the top 100, and you're right he's not garbage. But still a shocker from my perspective and I don't think I'm alone.


#49 Dantes929

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:43 AM

I was going to post what a difference it is to have a minor league system like we have now vs the system we had back in 2012 and then I was going to compare and contrast but that system had Sano, Rosario, Hendriks, Hicks, Dozier, Gibson and Kepler. Little of it was major league ready on a team that really needed major league players but still does serve as a counter to those that say you can't count on prospects. That was a poorly rated system back then.

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#50 Mike Sixel

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:48 AM

I was going to post what a difference it is to have a minor league system like we have now vs the system we had back in 2012 and then I was going to compare and contrast but that system had Sano, Rosario, Hendriks, Hicks, Dozier, Gibson and Kepler. Little of it was major league ready on a team that really needed major league players but still does serve as a counter to those that say you can't count on prospects. That was a poorly rated system back then.




It's also about context. You can reasonably count on good prospects, but how many playoff wins do they have from not trading? There aren't likely many years where this franchise will be on pace for 95 wins.
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#51 spycake

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:12 AM

It's not just the Cano/Diaz trade, but Lowrie and Familia; the stuff with Callaway, Vargas, and the reporter; the chair throwing meeting a few weeks back; tossing the pitching and bullpen coaches from the already sinking ship, only to not have improved results.

If you look at the New York media's coverage, it's pretty much been a train wreck aside from committing to some of their younger talent (Alonso and McNeil, more specifically).


There wasn't anything confusing about the Lowrie and Familia deals, though.

They haven't worked out well, which might be a strike against the Mets evaluators, but the motivations behind the deals were fairly clear and sensible.

The off-field stuff was a circus, for sure, but to date it hasn't really affected their transactions.

#52 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:21 AM

Neither are listed in the Top 100 prospect list from MLB pipeline. I think Kay is just outside the top 100, and you're right he's not garbage. But still a shocker from my perspective and I don't think I'm alone.


It's fair to speculate, and have opinions, we all do and should.

But we have no idea where the Jays rank these guys.
For all we know, the Jays have him as a top 50 prospect.

Again, totally fair to have opinions and speculate, but far too many people across multiple threads are making declarative posts like, "the Twins could have easily beat that deal with prospects x and z".

#53 Doomtints

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:27 AM

 

I think you'd have been shouting the same thing about Gerrit Cole in his last year with the Pirates. Look at him now. Syndergaard has one of the most elite arsenals in the game. Put him in a situation to be comfortable and give him the information he needs to succeed and you've got an ace on your hands.

 

With the Twins infield defense being what it is, I question Minnesota being the right place to transform a pitcher into an ace.

 

On the other hand, put Berrios in front of a good defense and see what happens.....

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#54 bighat

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:30 AM

 

It's fair to speculate, and have opinions, we all do and should.

But we have no idea where the Jays rank these guys.
For all we know, the Jays have him as a top 50 prospect.

Again, totally fair to have opinions and speculate, but far too many people across multiple threads are making declarative posts like, "the Twins could have easily beat that deal with prospects x and z".

 

Yeah, I agree - don't think the Twins could have beat that deal: primarily because the Jays didn't think our deal was any good. They wanted either Lewis or Kiriloff, and if they were firm on that, Twins had no chance to make a trade.

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#55 SwainZag

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:31 AM

 

With the Twins infield defense being what it is, I question Minnesota being the right place to transform a pitcher into an ace.

 

On the other hand, put Berrios in front of a good defense and see what happens.....

 

Berrios ERA is outperforming his FIP by nearly a run and his BABIP sits at a below league average .281.In terms of total defense fielding percentage and errors, the Twins are just a shade lower than league average.


#56 Dantes929

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:38 AM

 



It's also about context. You can reasonably count on good prospects, but how many playoff wins do they have from not trading? There aren't likely many years where this franchise will be on pace for 95 wins.

Of course, it is the age we live in. No one tries to build solely from the farm anymore since free agency. I always looked at the lack of playoff wins being due to our highly rated guys not doing the job rather than not being able to do the job.We had a highly rated bull pen those years and if you look back the losses were ofteny due to guys like Rincon, Nathan, and Santana giving up runs.You can trade all you want but Nathan is still going to be your closer.  

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#57 Blake

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:41 AM

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned, but I think the ask from the Mets is ridiculous to the point I'd be wondering if it's really worth dealing with them. 

 

I think it would be pretty close to, "Nice chatting with you and good luck with your future endeavors" and then move on.


#58 spycake

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:45 AM

Yeah, I agree - don't think the Twins could have beat that deal: primarily because the Jays didn't think our deal was any good. They wanted either Lewis or Kiriloff, and if they were firm on that, Twins had no chance to make a trade.


This earlier report suggests the Jays may not have required Lewis or Kirilloff, and/or the Twins reticence extended beyond Lewis and Kirilloff:


#59 USAFChief

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:49 AM

 

Of course, it is the age we live in. No one tries to build solely from the farm anymore since free agency. I always looked at the lack of playoff wins being due to our highly rated guys not doing the job rather than not being able to do the job.We had a highly rated bull pen those years and if you look back the losses were ofteny due to guys like Rincon, Nathan, and Santana giving up runs.You can trade all you want but Nathan is still going to be your closer.  

Highly rated like Jason Tyner taking DH ABs in the post season?

 

 

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#60 luckylager

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 11:51 AM

Is it possible that asking for Buxton was done in response to a equally ridiculous, low-ball offer from the Twins? Just saying, we don't know the whole conversation. 




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