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Article: Lottery Tickets

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 11:07 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...Lottery-Tickets

#2 nfisch22

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 11:41 PM

Ok let's be honest the chances of the twins even thinking about Sanchez is 0%. The twins love control pitchers who pound the strike zone. Unless Ryan is willing to change philosophies I don't see that one happening. The other ones are intriguing I'd love to see Hernandez (formerly Carmona) in a twins uniform. I think his problem this season was the fact he didn't get a full spring training with the Indians staff. After an off season of healing and a solid spring to get ready he could be a steal for the twins.

#3 Shane Wahl

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Posted 09 October 2012 - 11:45 PM

These pitchers are all terrible aside from Hernandez, and who knows how he will be in the future. If the Twins sign Bartolo Colon, I will stop being a Twins fan.

#4 stringer bell

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 02:53 AM

I've always liked Carmona/Hernandez. In 2011, when both were struggling mightily, I thought a Delmon for Fausto trade made sense. Now, a year and a half later, I think taking a flyer on the guy would make sense.

#5 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 05:07 AM

I'm on the Hernandez bandwagon for sure. I think he'll get a big-league deal, but Cleveland can't wait to send him on his way and I would think he would jump at the chance to get to face them a bunch next season.

Other than that, none of those guys do anything for me. In fact, I'd rather watch the same group as last year pitch over the other guys.

#6 BD57

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 05:10 AM

Please tell me there are better "realistic" options ....

#7 Brandon

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 05:40 AM

Don't forget to add Minnesota's own Carl Pavano to the list of pitchers looking at minor league deals this offseason.

#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 06:48 AM

No doubt two of guys like this are signed. I anticipate losing interest in the twins before the season even starts. I am exactly the kind of fan this team should be worried about right now.

#9 Higuys

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 08:02 AM

I just have this feeling that if we sign Hernandez/Carmona, that he'll turn out to be another Jason Marquis (in his stint w/ the twins)

#10 spideyo

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 08:02 AM

I think Hernandez might be worth a "nothing guaranteed-incentive heavy" contract. Chances are they'll know prettty quickly wether he'll be worth throwing out there or not pretty early in the season, if not before the end of spring training.

Although, it would have been much better if he was still Fausto, that's a much cooler name.

#11 StormJH1

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 09:10 AM

I hadn't really put much thought into Jonathan Sanchez, but I really thinking that signing 2 or 3 guys with high upside like THAT is a better formula for success than signing 2 or 3 Jason Marquis/Roberto Hernandez types that aren't really going to miss any bats.

Everybody knows that the Twins had bad starting pitching and injury problems with starters this year, but the dirty little secret is that the rest of the team was surprisingly healthy. You're not realistically getting anything BETTER than you got out of Mauer/Morneau/Willingham in 2013. It's very possible you'll get something worse. And to sign just a couple of placeholder starters that just throw innings and put the ball in play...I'm not really seeing how that formula makes this any better than a 70-win team next year. On the other hand, Jonathan Sanchez COULD figure things out and miss enough bats to be a Liriano-esque starter. And lets face it, if you try these high risk guys out and they implode, you'll just be sticking DeVries/Deduno/Blackburn/Walters/whoever in their spot again by June.

#12 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 09:17 AM

I am sure everyone understands that fans scruntinize players on our favorite team more than we do players on other teams.

That said, Cleveland Indians fans would LOVE to have a shot at Francisco Liriano and be forever over the roller coaster that is Fausto Robert Carmona Hernandez! These two guys are the biggest teases available in FA.

All the talent in the world with inconsistent mechanics and very little mental toughness. Who am I describing? Both, Liriano and Hernandez. Maybe he gets a deal that includes an invite to Spring Training.

Caution: Other than the slider vs. sinker philosophy, these guys can be brilliant one start and terrible the next. If the Twins get on the Hernandez roller coaster, expect fans to be having Liriano-type de ja vu!

#13 Dave T

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 09:38 AM

Man, that list reminds me too much of our originally-projected starting rotation for last year. Baker, Pavano, and Blackburn are three more Lottery Tickets. I sure hope Ryan's crystal ball is still working.

#14 fslbaseball

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 10:09 AM

Like most people that play the lottery. You hope to win big and in the end you only wasted your money. It is pretty sad that year after year the Twins draft big pitchers with great arms only to see them injured before the majors. Like other posts have pointed out the recoveries are delayed by 6 months as the team either misdiagnoses or waits for a miracle.

#15 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 11:46 AM

dont know how many minor league starters Mn 'can' sign if they get 2 legit starters out of the offseason. I see Blackburn, DeVries, Gibson & probably either Walters or Deduno will start in AAA.
The 4 listed are almost 'legit' style MLB pitchers....not the Walters/Deduno style of retread.
If Mn has to sign a 5th starter type out of this group, Id probably go Colon as he's shown the past 2 yrs...performance enhancing or not....that he can give a team a few months of good starts.

#16 Boom Boom

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 11:52 AM

If and when the Twins pitching acquisitions don't work out, I hope we're not supposed to take consolation in knowing they didn't spend a lot of money.

#17 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 12:11 PM

If we sign one of these guys and they have success as Peter Griffin would say "Oh my god i just took a shot in the dark" haha

#18 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 01:55 PM

None of these guys have a better upside than Pavano, Blackburn, or Walters...for each of them...best thing that could happen is to actually pitch in AAA next spring and do well and get a shot...odds are that one of them could come back and win 10-12 games...but which one.

I would much rather see Twins give shots to Gibson, Hendricks and Deduno.

#19 Rick Blaine

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 05:18 PM

I understand your thinking-- not really in favor of it. Dumpster diving has never proven that successful. I agree with others that say you can add Pavano, Baker and Liriano to this list. We could always try Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz and/or Sidney Ponson again. Not sure we will like the results regardless.

#20 Rick Blaine

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 06:11 PM

[COLOR=#333333]quoting StormJH1 "You're not realistically getting anything BETTER than you got out of Mauer/Morneau/Willingham in 2013. It's very possible you'll get something worse."

I agree with you on this and it makes me nervous. All three have had a history of injuries and in 2012 all three were relatively healthy. I think we may be playing on borrowed time. Even though Justin Morneau is one of my all time favorite Twins, and I loved what Josh Willingham brought to the team--- I think you trade them now while their value is high. They are both on the wrong side of 30 and both have spent a lot of time on the DL during their careers. Both could fill the coffers with prospects and MLB ready players. The Twins may have to eat some of Justin's salary.

I would do it now before they get hurt in April or May and then we're stuck. I doubt Joe Mauer could ever get traded unless his contract is re-negotiated ---and why would he do that![/COLOR]

#21 Thrylos

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 06:21 PM

Don't forget to add Minnesota's own Carl Pavano to the list of pitchers looking at minor league deals this offseason.


Marquis, too...

(and he did better than the others last season ;) )
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#22 Nick Nelson

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 07:38 PM

I understand your thinking-- not really in favor of it. Dumpster diving has never proven that successful.

It's possible to find useful players on minor-league contracts. The Twins had success finding relief arms through that avenue last offseason. The Orioles found a starter who as I type this is currently shutting down the Yankees in Game 3 of an ALDS series. It's all about making good evaluations and getting a little lucky.

The article is called "Lottery Tickets" for a reason. No one is suggesting that you give any of these guys a major league deal or guaranteed rotation spot. There's little downside to bringing them to spring training - and maybe even sending them to Rochester to start the season - and seeing what they have.

#23 deanlambrecht

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 08:25 PM

Also available as of today, Jesse Litsch (Blue Jays), who profiles as a Twin from a cost/past-performance perspective: http://www.baseball-...www.typepad.com

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

#24 old nurse

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Posted 10 October 2012 - 11:47 PM

for a baseball junkie to come up with these for options is disheartening. Not quite as bad though as mortgaging the future fore an oft injured pitcher that will take a good chunk of your payroll

#25 Nick Nelson

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 09:28 AM

for a baseball junkie to come up with these for options is disheartening.

Minor. League. Contracts.

#26 Twins Twerp

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 02:44 PM

I want Terry Ryan to take this aproach...Sign ALL of them to minor league deals if you can. EVERY SINGLE ONE. If one makes it then it is all worth it. Add Carl Pavano, Marquis, Scott Baker, Blackburn (already stuck with him anyway), Kevin Slowey, and any other reject who may have the stuff in there somewhere. Our pitching staff would suck if we played in the Independent League. The Fargo Red Hawks have a better staff than the Twinks

#27 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 02:52 PM

I understand your thinking-- not really in favor of it. Dumpster diving has never proven that successful.

It's possible to find useful players on minor-league contracts. The Twins had success finding relief arms through that avenue last offseason. The Orioles found a starter who as I type this is currently shutting down the Yankees in Game 3 of an ALDS series. It's all about making good evaluations and getting a little lucky.

The article is called "Lottery Tickets" for a reason. No one is suggesting that you give any of these guys a major league deal or guaranteed rotation spot. There's little downside to bringing them to spring training - and maybe even sending them to Rochester to start the season - and seeing what they have.


The entire Orioles team is more or less dumpster diving and buying low. They have done a fantastic job of such this year.

#28 Rick Blaine

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 07:13 PM

True-- but the Orioles dine at gormet dumpsters!

#29 old nurse

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 07:50 PM

for a baseball junkie to come up with these for options is disheartening.

Minor. League. Contracts.


The disheartning part is that I would have expected a gem to be uncovered by you guys. Maybe I will have to wait until you guys talk about the Rule 5 draft..

The Twins can't have too many minor league contracts, there would be those complaining that the older playerr is blocking a prospect.