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Josh Johnson

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#121 biggentleben

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 11:12 AM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='biggentleben'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']Johnson has been "hurt" 1 of the past 4 years. I'm not sure what your point exactly is, by the way, why are you trolling Twins boards anyways? I thought you were a Braves fan?[/QUOTE]

You've been shown your "hurt" comment is incorrect, so that's not worth arguing.

I've been conversing with many on this board back to the days on ESPN, and I'd hardly consider what I do trolling. I also participate in a Mets message board as well, and though they're a rival, I've never once been accused of trolling on their site either. Holding fast to arguments that are continually proven false would be a much closer definition of trolling.[/QUOTE]

Ur trollface.[/QUOTE]

My trollface? ;) I am trollface? Bueller?
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#122 Willihammer

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 11:59 AM

Some of these guys who run into shoulder issues after TJ just need to get on and stay on a strength and conditioning program and they are more or less ok. I know JJ was put on a shoulder strength program after he was shut down with shoulder issues in 2011 and came back strong for 2012, although his velocity did dip a little. There is risk there and a high ceiling too. It would be very un Twins like to bring a guy like JJ on board out of free agency but I would be pleasantly surprised if they did.

#123 kab21

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 08:01 PM

The Marlins are going to go through a complete rebuilding effort, all indications are the Twins will not, otherwise why bring back Gardy/Anderson for one more year?

Also keep in mind, Marlins fans are apathetic no matter what, if the Twins want to keep butts in the seats at Target Field they realize they need to turn things around sooner then later.

I'm not saying gut the entire farm system for a win now campaign, but this team needs top of the rotation pitching now and moving forward. There are three ways to get that.
1. Overspend in free agency- Probably not the best idea, since you will also often times lose a draft pick and end up bidding against Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels etc.
2. Draft/Bring up through your system- Other then Berrios the Twins don't have a true "ace" or "ace-lite" pitcher in the minors at this point, and he is at least 3-4 years away. I like Gibson as a #2 but you need more than that, everyone else projects as a#3-#5.
3. Trade for one- A guy like Shields I still maintain is going to cost significantly more then Johnson and more then the Twins will want to give up. So trading Rosario sucks, but if you can get 4-5 years of Josh Johnson back for it I think you have to consider making that move, otherwise the Twins will literally go into 2013 with a #3 type pitcher as their ace.


You are proposing to do #1 and #3 if you trade for Johnson with a huge extension. The Twins would be better off not giving up prospects and paying a little more for Greinke. Greinke might not be as good as Johnson but he's significantly more durable.

I like how people are quick to say that they knew something was wrong with Baker last year when Johnson typically misses a couple of starts a season and was shut down for most of one season due to arm issues. there is absolutely no way that the Twins should give a guy like Johnson a 4/75+ extension even if they didn't have to give up any prospects.

#124 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 08:13 PM

Only reason that the Twins would be in the bidding for Johnson is cause of his pending FA/arm troubles.
MN has NEVER been one to take a chance like this....so it will be interesting if they enter the bidding.
What will other teams offer up as a gamble for him. If its one high end prospect (Rosario or Arcia for ex) and a mid-tier (Benson or Hermsen) like ANA did for Grienke....its well worth the shot, even if they want a legit MLB player like Span or Revere. It is a HUGE gamble, but this team has never gone 'all in' & management may want to finally take a shot.

#125 kab21

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 09:18 PM

[COLOR=#333333]but this team has never gone 'all in' & management may want to finally take a shot.[/COLOR]


This makes no sense at all. Why would they choose this year? They have lost 90 games in two consecutive seasons and they need WAY MORE than JJ to be a good team.

The best course of action is not doing anything to screw up the future. Things that will screw up the future is trading good prospects and signing average players to long contracts. For now the team needs to target guys on reasonable 2-3 yr deals like Willingham and it is going to have to take its lumps. Rebuilding awful teams doesn't happen in one offseason.

#126 old nurse

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 11:27 PM

3 of his past 4 seasons. 33, 31, 28 starts. Yes, that is not EVERY start but its not like he is missing huge chunks of time.

There is a huge difference between Johnson and Pavano, for one Johnson actually is able to strike people out and a top of the rotation type guy, Pavano was/is a back end of the rotation type guy.

Also Johnson was "hurt" in 2007/2008 because he was having Tommy John surgery. It's not like he was going on and off the disabled list for various aliments Pavano Yankee style.

The point was the Twins cannot afford to had a player making that kind of money hurt and not playing. Johnnson's career is not about playing a full season. Can I make it any simpler for you. By innings pitched per year with starts per year, Johnson does not rate that kind of money from an organization like the Twins. I won't clutter things up with examples of how this works because it only seems to confuse you.

#127 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 11 October 2012 - 11:48 PM

3 of his past 4 seasons. 33, 31, 28 starts. Yes, that is not EVERY start but its not like he is missing huge chunks of time.

There is a huge difference between Johnson and Pavano, for one Johnson actually is able to strike people out and a top of the rotation type guy, Pavano was/is a back end of the rotation type guy.

Also Johnson was "hurt" in 2007/2008 because he was having Tommy John surgery. It's not like he was going on and off the disabled list for various aliments Pavano Yankee style.

The point was the Twins cannot afford to had a player making that kind of money hurt and not playing. Johnnson's career is not about playing a full season. Can I make it any simpler for you. By innings pitched per year with starts per year, Johnson does not rate that kind of money from an organization like the Twins. I won't clutter things up with examples of how this works because it only seems to confuse you.

Didn't the twins give 184 million a couple year ago to a guy who had "injury issues"?? Also they gave a 3 year contract to Pavano as well, who has had a few injury issues of his own ;)

Also you aren't confusing me at all, champ. Keep trying to make me out to be the simpleton who doesn't understand baseball...it won't end well for ya.

Yes in 2011 he was hurt, but in the 3 years surrounding that he averaged over 190 IP, which actually is quite a bit more then ANY pitcher pitched for our 2012 Twins ;)

Edited by SpiritofVodkaDave, 11 October 2012 - 11:50 PM.


#128 old nurse

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 06:54 AM

[quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='old nurse'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']3 of his past 4 seasons. 33, 31, 28 starts. Yes, that is not EVERY start but its not like he is missing huge chunks of time.

There is a huge difference between Johnson and Pavano, for one Johnson actually is able to strike people out and a top of the rotation type guy, Pavano was/is a back end of the rotation type guy.

Also Johnson was "hurt" in 2007/2008 because he was having Tommy John surgery. It's not like he was going on and off the disabled list for various aliments Pavano Yankee style.[/QUOTE]
The point was the Twins cannot afford to had a player making that kind of money hurt and not playing. Johnnson's career is not about playing a full season. Can I make it any simpler for you. By innings pitched per year with starts per year, Johnson does not rate that kind of money from an organization like the Twins. I won't clutter things up with examples of how this works because it only seems to confuse you.[/QUOTE]
Didn't the twins give 184 million a couple year ago to a guy who had "injury issues"?? Also they gave a 3 year contract to Pavano as well, who has had a few injury issues of his Also you aren't confusing me at all, champ. Keep trying to make me out to be the simpleton who doesn't understand baseball...it won't end well for ya.

Yes in 2011 he was hurt, but in the 3 years surrounding that he averaged over 190 IP, which actually is quite a bit more then ANY pitcher pitched for our 2012 Twins ;)[/QUOTE]

You mention the problems in the Twins contracts with players with injury history and still can't see giving that large of contract?

It won't end well for me? ??? Threatning people?

#129 biggentleben

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 08:42 AM

You mention the problems in the Twins contracts with players with injury history and still can't see giving that large of contract?

It won't end well for me? ??? Threatning people?


Typical Dave decompensation rant. Once proven incorrect and unable to sway just by overly repeating the same incorrect argument, he'll decompensate to cursing and then threatening. Lovely.
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#130 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:15 AM

You mention the problems in the Twins contracts with players with injury history and still can't see giving that large of contract?

It won't end well for me? ??? Threatning people?


Typical Dave decompensation rant. Once proven incorrect and unable to sway just by overly repeating the same incorrect argument, he'll decompensate to cursing and then threatening. Lovely.


Sigh, you bore me. I wasn't threatening him at all.

#131 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:18 AM

[quote name='old nurse'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave'][quote name='old nurse'][quote name='SpiritofVodkaDave']3 of his past 4 seasons. 33, 31, 28 starts. Yes, that is not EVERY start but its not like he is missing huge chunks of time.

There is a huge difference between Johnson and Pavano, for one Johnson actually is able to strike people out and a top of the rotation type guy, Pavano was/is a back end of the rotation type guy.

Also Johnson was "hurt" in 2007/2008 because he was having Tommy John surgery. It's not like he was going on and off the disabled list for various aliments Pavano Yankee style.[/QUOTE]
The point was the Twins cannot afford to had a player making that kind of money hurt and not playing. Johnnson's career is not about playing a full season. Can I make it any simpler for you. By innings pitched per year with starts per year, Johnson does not rate that kind of money from an organization like the Twins. I won't clutter things up with examples of how this works because it only seems to confuse you.[/QUOTE]
Didn't the twins give 184 million a couple year ago to a guy who had "injury issues"?? Also they gave a 3 year contract to Pavano as well, who has had a few injury issues of his Also you aren't confusing me at all, champ. Keep trying to make me out to be the simpleton who doesn't understand baseball...it won't end well for ya.

Yes in 2011 he was hurt, but in the 3 years surrounding that he averaged over 190 IP, which actually is quite a bit more then ANY pitcher pitched for our 2012 Twins ;)[/QUOTE]

You mention the problems in the Twins contracts with players with injury history and still can't see giving that large of contract?

It won't end well for me? ??? Threatning people?[/QUOTE]

I never said that Johnson would be the "typical" Twins signing, in fact he would go against the grain quite a bit, which would actually be a good thing. Give me the high risk high reward signing of Josh Johnson rather then paying close to the same amount for the low risk low reward Shawn Marcum or the like. You were the one who said the Twins wouldn't give out a big contract to a player with injury history, I provided two examples of players they did give multi year deals to that had significant injury histories.

In 3 of the past 4 years he pitched either 200 IP or very close to that, yes, he isn't going to give you every start every year but as long as he gives you 28-30 I would certainly live with that, again give me the high risk, high reward.

#132 old nurse

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 10:59 AM

[/QUOTE] never said that Johnson would be the "typical" Twins signing, in fact he would go against the grain quite a bit, which would actually be a good thing. Give me the high risk high reward signing of Josh Johnson rather then paying close to the same amount for the low risk low reward Shawn Marcum or the like. You were the one who said the Twins wouldn't give out a big contract to a player with injury history, I provided two examples of players they did give multi year deals to that had significant injury histories.

In 3 of the past 4 years he pitched either 200 IP or very close to that, yes, he isn't going to give you every start every year but as long as he gives you 28-30 I would certainly live with that, again give me the high risk, high reward.[/QUOTE]


If Marcum gets Josh Johnson kind of money you would have a point. He won't get that kind of money, so you don't have a point

#133 Linus

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 12:59 PM

The Twins farm system is bereft of starting pitching and middle infielders. The only trades that makes sense are ones where we deal from a position of strength or surplus, which means your only trade options are one of: Span / Revere / Hicks / Arcia or either Morneau / Parmelee. Trading Rosario would be a huge mistake in my book as he is the only legit MI prospect they have (don't even talk about Dozier, et al); they are marginal prospects with little chance of being plus major league players). Worsening holes in your system to plug other holes doesn't solve problems long term. If you can trade two of the above mentioned for long term pitching help (feel free to throw in marginal prospects), we have to make the deal. The likely return will not be a pitcher as good as Johnson or Shields but so long as they they are reliable and reasonably consistent then we have at least fixed one spot in the rotation. Then you still have to spend some money on reasonable 2 FA SP on 3 year deals to bridge the gap to the first class of real pitching prospects in our system. Only way to be competitive next year and still not mortgage the farm for the future.

#134 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 01:31 PM

"If Marcum gets Josh Johnson kind of money you would have a point. He won't get that kind of money, so you don't have a point"

Marcum will get 4 years at close to 13 mil a season this off season. I am advocating grabbing Johnson and paying him 17 million a year in an extension. Yes Johnson would cost more money, but the upside is so much greater and worth it.

Also

#135 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 01:50 PM

This makes no sense at all. Why would they choose this year? They have lost 90 games in two consecutive seasons and they need WAY MORE than JJ to be a good team.

The best course of action is not doing anything to screw up the future. Things that will screw up the future is trading good prospects and signing average players to long contracts. A.


Why wouldnt they choose this year? Needing WAY MORE than JJ doesn't mean you shouldn't start assembling WAY MORE. They're going to need starting pitching, from outside the organization, in 2013 AND 2016. Do you think it's realistic they can just sit around until YOU decide they're good enough to get better, and at that point both the pitchers to acquire and the assets to acquire them will magically step forward?

Sitting back and thinking the moon and stars are going to align in some undefined magical year far off in the future is how you become the KC Royals. You're perpetually trading the present for the future, until one day you wake up and you realize you're 20 years into a 4 year rebuilding plan with nothing to show for it, and you're farther away than you were 20 years ago.

if they can get a Josh Johnson for a reasonable price, including trading some minor league assets, AND sign him to an extension, they absolutely should do so.

#136 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 01:57 PM



This makes no sense at all. Why would they choose this year? They have lost 90 games in two consecutive seasons and they need WAY MORE than JJ to be a good team.

The best course of action is not doing anything to screw up the future. Things that will screw up the future is trading good prospects and signing average players to long contracts. A.


Why wouldnt they choose this year? Needing WAY MORE than JJ doesn't mean you shouldn't start assembling WAY MORE. They're going to need starting pitching, from outside the organization, in 2013 AND 2016. Do you think it's realistic they can just sit around until YOU decide they're good enough to get better, and at that point both the pitchers to acquire and the assets to acquire them will magically step forward?

Sitting back and thinking the moon and stars are going to align in some undefined magical year far off in the future is how you become the KC Royals. You're perpetually trading the present for the future, until one day you wake up and you realize you're 20 years into a 4 year rebuilding plan with nothing to show for it, and you're farther away than you were 20 years ago.

if they can get a Josh Johnson for a reasonable price, including trading some minor league assets, AND sign him to an extension, they absolutely should do so.


I'm digging your ideas these days Chief, now if I could only bring you over to the church of DeRosa...

#137 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 03:07 PM

Oh...so getting is an ace is only a matter of trading marginal prospects and convincing them to take less money?

Well damn. Why don't we get five of them? Perhaps we should (dare I say) try this approach with middle infield as well? Do you think a bag of balls and two hot chicks will get us Elvis Andrus for the next 17 years?

Jesus offseason fan speculation can get obnoxious.

#138 biggentleben

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 03:26 PM

Do you think a bag of balls and two hot chicks will get us Elvis Andrus for the next 17 years?


Woah, woah, woah! TWO hot chicks?! No way we should give up the second hot chick to bring him in. Maybe a 9 and a 6 along with a bag of balls, but Andrus is nowhere near worth 2 10's. Why don't we just trade away Mauer and eat his entire contract as well while we're at it if we're going crazy talk with two 10's.
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#139 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 04:59 PM

jesus lev can get obnoxious.


ftfy.

#140 old nurse

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 05:30 PM

[quote name='USAFChief'][quote name='kab21']


Sitting back and thinking the moon and stars are going to align in some undefined magical year far off in the future is how you become the KC Royals. You're perpetually trading the present for the future, until one day you wake up and you realize you're 20 years into a 4 year rebuilding plan with nothing to show for it, and you're farther away than you were 20 years ago.

if they can get a Josh Johnson for a reasonable price, including trading some minor league assets, AND sign him to an extension, they absolutely should do so.[/QUOTE]

Or you become the Oakland A's. Look at their roster and see the talent they aquired by trading good players frooor prospects.

You make trades like a catcher for a closer, a tantalizing prospect, and a guy you were flat out wrong on.

The Twins have to figure outt how to develop pitchers. Why would a free agent come here at this time? One would be that they were offered more here than anywhere else. Two would be they did not get an offer they like and had good numbers when pitching a Target Field so a year pitching there would get them a better paycheck. Three is no one else would sign them. Four is they believe they can carry a team to a championship and what better team than the Twins? The least likely of them all for a reason they would sign here: I lived here when I was real young so I am going to sign for a huge discount.

#141 TheLeviathan

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 07:53 PM

jesus lev can get obnoxious.


ftfy.


Awww somebody didn't like their absurd suggestions being called out!

We all want better pitchers, let's start with developing them better rather than targeting questionable short-term (much less longterm) options under questionable premises.

#142 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 08:25 PM

We all want better pitchers, let's start with developing them better


Well thats great and all for the 2015 and 2016 Twins...but some of us want to talk about how to improve this team for 2013 and 2014.

#143 johnnydakota

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 12:51 AM

the difference between shields and baker is shields has an out pitch , and gives you 200+ innings where scotty , well not lately....did johnson ever recover his velocity he lost mid season? to me its shield ove johnson , id trade our minor leaque pitcher of the year and span for him

#144 righty8383

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 01:31 AM

the difference between shields and baker is shields has an out pitch , and gives you 200+ innings where scotty , well not lately....did johnson ever recover his velocity he lost mid season? to me its shield ove johnson , id trade our minor leaque pitcher of the year and span for him


Especially considering our minor league pitcher of the year has a ceiling of a #5 starter.

#145 TheLeviathan

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 05:56 AM

Well thats great and all for the 2015 and 2016 Twins...but some of us want to talk about how to improve this team for 2013 and 2014.


I don't shell out a ton of money and the prospects it will likely require in the real world (not this fantasy world the thread has devolved into) to get a guy who has a trending velocity chart like this one and a career ERA a run higher away from his pitcher's paradise at home. I'm all for talking about realistic options (Span for Shields is realistic with some tweaking) but the couple of posts these last few pages are just obnoxious.