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#41 DaveW

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 02:21 PM

Payroll's going down, not up, and even for one year, that would be hard to swallow, given the fact that we arguably need 3 OK starters more than we need one good one.

As much as guys like Joe Saunders kind of suck, you could stitch together an argument that it would make a bigger difference in the win/loss

Johnson is due 13.75 million, and he isn't a "good" pitcher he is an ace. You argue you would rather have 3 good pitchers instead of Johnson, please let me know which 3 pitchers you are going to get for $13 million.

Joe Saunders does suck, I want nothing to do with a Joe Saunders on this staff.

Lastly, as I mentioned, you trade for Johnson and try to sign him to a 4 year extension while his value isn't at his peak. Perhaps he would be willing to give a bit of a discount (not a ton) to come back to Minnesota. Absolute worst case scenario is that he walks at the end of the year and you end up with draft pick compensation.

My ideal beginning to the off-season:
Trade Span for some high upside pitching in the minors. (Or if you can get a nice SS like Andrus or something, think about that as well, even though Andrus isn't getting any cheaper...)
Trade Rosario+ C prospect or two for Josh Johnson.
Sign Johnson to 4 year, 70-75 million extension.
Sign Scott Baker to 1 year, 3 mil base (3 more million in incentives)

Starting rotation:
Johnson
Baker
Diamond
Gibson
Hendriks

At this point the Twins would still have quite a bit more money to play with. (+13.75 mil to Johnson, +3 mil to Baker, -4.75 mil Span, -3 mil Nishi) heading into the off-season the Twins were looking at the very minimum of 20 million to spend, more then likely 25+ million. At this point you would still have at least another 10-11 million to spend if you want to bring in another "good" SP or find some INF help.

Edited by SpiritofVodkaDave, 08 October 2012 - 02:24 PM.


#42 JP3700

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 02:28 PM

People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical.

Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation.


I just wanted to say great post Nick and I completely agree. Verlander and Sabathia are probably the two most prototypical aces I can think of. Sure they have great stuff, but the thing that makes them great and allows them to be thought of so highly is the fact that they make every start and go deep into every game they have the ball. Comparing a "healthy Scott Baker" to James Shields is like saying a "healthy Kerry Wood" is comparable to Roger Clemens. Most great pitchers say that the most important stat at the end of a season is IP.. Not ERA, SO or any other sabermetric stat. Can't go wrong with 6 straight seasons with 200 IP.. He also got his team to the 6th inning in every start in 2012.

Sorry went off the topic a little, but as far as Josh Johnson.. He would be a great fit as well.. Why not go after both he and Shields? Only problem I see is they don't really have a need in the OF.. They have Stanton, Bonifacio, Ruggiano and Morrison. Their need is more in corner IF and young starting pitching. So maybe Parmelee, Plouffe or Hendriks might interest them.. So maybe a package with 1 of the 3 and a couple of mid level prospects.

#43 CharacterGroove

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 02:42 PM

I would trade Span/Revere and a prospect for Johnson even if the chance of getting him to sign an extension is slim to none.

The Twins need to stop the bleeding. And I don't think they're that far off. The devil's in the details, of course, (which prospect) but with its core group the Twins have to play for 2013.

Worst case scenario, other than Johnson getting injured, is that the team sucks again and Ryan turns around and deals Johnson before the deadline. But at least in that case there's an effort to compete.

#44 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 04:05 PM

I would trade Span/Revere and a prospect for Johnson even if the chance of getting him to sign an extension is slim to none.


The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point.

#45 notoriousgod71

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 04:51 PM

Trade for them both. Who cares if we deal Span and/or Revere? There are comparable players that players that can replace them. Parmelee? Plouffe? Rosario? Meh.

Starting pitching is the most import part of a team so even if the offense is garbage we're still better off than we are now. I would not trade Sano, Hicks, or Arcia but everyone else is expendable.

#46 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:03 PM

I would trade Span/Revere and a prospect for Johnson even if the chance of getting him to sign an extension is slim to none.


The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point.


100% Agree with this. Do we really think the twins will be a contender next year with Josh Johnson? This team has many holes. More than likely Johnson will not give the Twins a discount just because he is from here when it comes to an extension. He will be looking for that big paycheck like most other MLB Players. Not all MLB players have loyalty like Joe Mauer.

#47 biggentleben

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:04 PM

Think what was given up for Josh Beckett. Expect that much of a return. Hanley was part of that deal as was Anibal Sanchez. I'd not be surprised if one of the top 2-3 prospects would absolutely have to be involved to come to the table.

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#48 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:09 PM

[quote name='AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS'][quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='CharacterGroove']I would trade Span/Revere and a prospect for Johnson even if the chance of getting him to sign an extension is slim to none.[/QUOTE]

The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point.[/QUOTE]

100% Agree with this. Do we really think the twins will be a contender next year with Josh Johnson? This team has many holes. More than likely Johnson will not give the Twins a discount just because he is from here when it comes to an extension. He will be looking for that big paycheck like most other MLB Players. Not all MLB players have loyalty like Joe Mauer.[/QUOTE]

If he's willing to take a hometown discount, talk to him next November. With Morneau's salary coming off the books, the Twins will have the money for Johnson.

#49 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:11 PM

Make a run at every available pitcher out there. Get one or two on your terms. Josh Johnson would be a nice fit, but I would prefer Shields if I had to choose. Work on him to sign an extension. Short term fixes are fine, but you can't destroy the payroll or the farm system to do it. That is why you see the Carroll/Doumit type signings, instead of huge dollar investments.

I would be willing to move one of the big name prospects if it means having a staff ace for the next 5-7 years.

#50 clutterheart

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:27 PM

It would take a very high quality prospect to land Shields. Johnson might be cheaper but they would a player like Hicks not Revere

#51 JP3700

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:37 PM

I agree with the posts of acquiring Josh only if he agrees to an extension, not as a rental. I also agree that he wouldn't fix the problem, so if we were to go for him, he can't be the only piece we add, we have to really go for it. Just a thought but what if..
- Trade Hendriks & Plouffe for Johnson and sign to a 3 year extension with a 4th year option in addition to 2013
- Trade Span for Tommy Hanson who has 3 years of club control left
- Re sign Baker to an incentive laden deal with club option(s)
- Sign Jeff Keppinger as the everyday third baseman 2-3 years to bridge to Sano

Lineup of:
Revere CF
Keppinger 3B
Mauer C
Willingham LF
Morneau 1B
Doumit DH
Parmelee RF
? 2B
? SS

Mastroianni off the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. Carroll playing 3-4 days a week in the utility role.

Pitching:
Johnson, Baker, Diamond and Hanson in the rotation with Duensing, Burton and Perkins at the back end of the bullpen.

Sounds like a competitive team to me and would be in the low 90M budget if we fill the roster with minimum salaries. Arcia and Hicks hopefully being ready by 2014 where another 20M coming off the books with Morneau, Blackburn and Carroll. Parm moves to 1B and Arcia or Hicks takes over in RF. I'm not a GM so who knows if this is all possible but it sure is fun to think about :)

#52 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 05:48 PM

I agree with the posts of acquiring Josh only if he agrees to an extension, not as a rental. I also agree that he wouldn't fix the problem, so if we were to go for him, he can't be the only piece we add, we have to really go for it. Just a thought but what if..
- Trade Hendriks & Plouffe for Johnson and sign to a 3 year extension with a 4th year option in addition to 2013
- Trade Span for Tommy Hanson who has 3 years of club control left
- Re sign Baker to an incentive laden deal with club option(s)
- Sign Jeff Keppinger as the everyday third baseman 2-3 years to bridge to Sano

Lineup of:
Revere CF
Keppinger 3B
Mauer C
Willingham LF
Morneau 1B
Doumit DH
Parmelee RF
? 2B
? SS

Mastroianni off the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. Carroll playing 3-4 days a week in the utility role.

Pitching:
Johnson, Baker, Diamond and Hanson in the rotation with Duensing, Burton and Perkins at the back end of the bullpen.

Sounds like a competitive team to me and would be in the low 90M budget if we fill the roster with minimum salaries. Arcia and Hicks hopefully being ready by 2014 where another 20M coming off the books with Morneau, Blackburn and Carroll. Parm moves to 1B and Arcia or Hicks takes over in RF. I'm not a GM so who knows if this is all possible but it sure is fun to think about :)


Ha this makes me excited to play some MLB the show! The offseason is an exciting time for hopes and predictions in video games and reality. :)

#53 mnfireman

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 06:06 PM

Dreamers, dreamers, dreamers. If trades were that easy and GM's were that agreeable to get screwed, maybe these trades would happen. Span or Revere plus prospects might land one of Johnson, Shields or Hanson, not 2 or all 3. Plouffe, Parmalee, etc... lands minor league prospects at best. This year the team needs to go after FA's or risk another losing season or emptying the minors to land a frontline starter who will have no one to play behind him.

#54 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 06:11 PM

I wouldn't mind either Johnson or Shields. Johnson shoudl be cheaper and is the type of guy I could see them going after. If the Marlins want a decent prospect though, they are going to have to eat a bad contract (like say Blackburn)...

#55 PseudoSABR

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 06:33 PM

Josh Johnson is precisely the kind of player the Twins should target in Gardy's lame duck year, given his JJ's one year contract. I'd certainly start discussion on extension with Johnson in the offseason if he acquired, but he'd be a valuable trade asset at the deadline, along with Willingham and Morneau if the team struggles. I'm not sure the Marlins would want major league level talent, and their asking price might be too high in the offseason--given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

#56 JP3700

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 07:18 PM

Dreamers, dreamers, dreamers. If trades were that easy and GM's were that agreeable to get screwed, maybe these trades would happen. Span or Revere plus prospects might land one of Johnson, Shields or Hanson, not 2 or all 3. Plouffe, Parmalee, etc... lands minor league prospects at best. This year the team needs to go after FA's or risk another losing season or emptying the minors to land a frontline starter who will have no one to play behind him.


Who's getting screwed in the trades I mentioned? If anything in a Hanson for Span swap the Braves would have to add to the trade. As far as a Josh Johnson trade, you mention a Span or Revere plus prospects trade and don't realize they have zero need for outfielders. 2 of their 3 best prospects are outfielders and they have 4 players on their ML team that are capable as well. They don't have a 3B and want young starting pitching to add to Turner and Eovaldi. Plouffe and Hendriks fits what they're looking for, have good upside and have plenty of team control left. Seems like a fair trade to me given their current needs.

#57 biggentleben

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:16 PM

The first challenge is trying to understand the Marlins' motives. I dont' follow the Marlins closely but from here it looks like their owner(s) are awfully impulsive and may be less than hardcore baseball fans. Who's to say they wouldn't deal a Johnson or Buehrle just as a salary dump?


They didn't salary dump in 2012. They traded for big prospect hauls. You can criticize not getting a particular top prospect in their deals, but they did get a good haul in each deal, and they'll be looking for top prospects in any deal they do.

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#58 Giles Ferrell

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:24 PM

Having Johnson would be nice, but would the Twins really give up some prospects to get him? As much as putting a winning MLB team on the field is needed, they need to keep stocking up the farm system. I would think a Span for Shields trade is more likely because there would be fewer, if not any, prospects involved.

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#59 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 08:57 PM

These two performed among the top 25 pitchers last year.

Pitchers the caliber of Johnson and Shields return top 50 prospects. That's Sano territory.

#60 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 October 2012 - 09:28 PM

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.


Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.