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Article: What Will It Take to Acquire Marcus Stroman?

marcus stroman minnesota twins mlb trade rumors trevor larnach toronto blue jays
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#61 Darius

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:38 PM

The Mets must not think Kay is going to be much of a starter. You would not trade 6 years of a mid rotation starter for one full year of a front line starter. A high ceiling with a long shot of being a star. The other pitcher is in the low minors, also a high ceiling with a remote chance to get there. So the answer to your question is the Twins do not have to high ceiling pitching prospects that another team believes is but the Twins do not.

I think a lot of the franchises willing/able to spend (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, maybe a few others....Mets apparently) would willingly trade 6 years of a potentially mid to back-end back end guy for one year of a front-line guy.

First, you’re getting known for an unknown. Second, teams like that can grab a mid-rotation guy in free agency every single year. They don’t care about the cost. They don’t need to delay arbitration and think about the future. They don’t need to wait in the hope that prospects for one small window at s World Series. They want to win, and they want to win now. They want to win every year. They often do also.

Edited by Darius, 28 July 2019 - 07:41 PM.


#62 spycake

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:46 PM

I think it's a near lock that Bauer is traded, if he isn't moved at the deadline.


Could be, but I could see preferring Stroman, especially at a lower arb salary than Bauer. Not to mention, "a bird in the hand" and all that -- might be worth a little premium now to lock in one rather than hope the other is still around later. Who knows, maybe the Mets already know Cleveland wouldn't take these two prospects for Bauer.

#63 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 10:09 PM

 

Could be, but I could see preferring Stroman, especially at a lower arb salary than Bauer. Not to mention, "a bird in the hand" and all that -- might be worth a little premium now to lock in one rather than hope the other is still around later. Who knows, maybe the Mets already know Cleveland wouldn't take these two prospects for Bauer.

Definitely possible and frankly, I like what the Mets gave for Stroman. I just don't like what the Mets are thinking right now, and it seems most of baseball agrees.

 

But also, why didn't the Twins offer a comparable package?

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#64 old nurse

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 03:12 AM

 

Definitely possible and frankly, I like what the Mets gave for Stroman. I just don't like what the Mets are thinking right now, and it seems most of baseball agrees.

 

But also, why didn't the Twins offer a comparable package?

Trades are weird when they involve prospects.What is comperable value in Toronto's mind?The view on prospects is different enough from evaluation group to another the further down from the top you get.Would you give up the 3 and 6 from the TD poll of prospects for Stroman (Graterol and Balazovic)? So the choice becomes one of many choices. It could be there issomething the Blue Jays see in these prospects that others are not. Equally possible is thatRoss Atkins get the "Bill Smith Bad Trade" traveling trophy from Neak Hunnington. The answer will not be known for years.

There is this to consider.If Van Wagenen can get somebody to pay more for Stroman, he is ahead. If he gets someone to pay way more for Thor, he is ahead. If he can now get something of value for Wheeler, he may be ahead.

Edited by old nurse, 29 July 2019 - 03:13 AM.


#65 TFRazor

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 06:11 AM

So yeah, hiring an agent to run your FO seems like a genius level move. We should look into it.


#66 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 07:34 AM

That was an underwhelming return for Stroman... An offer the Twins could have easily beat. Doesn't make me hopeful that an impact trade is on the horizon.
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#67 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 11:31 AM

That was an underwhelming return for Stroman... An offer the Twins could have easily beat. Doesn't make me hopeful that an impact trade is on the horizon.


Just out of curiosity, what would be your offer that would easily beat it?

#68 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 11:43 AM

Just out of curiosity, what would be your offer that would easily beat it?


If Toronto wants pitching probably Duran and Thorpe.

#69 spycake

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 12:39 PM

 

If Toronto wants pitching probably Duran and Thorpe.

It could be competitive but I don't know about "easily beat". Fangraphs has these two at 50 and 40 FV, while both of the Mets guys were 45 FV. MLB Pipeline seems to grade higher, and has them all at 50.

 

(Another factor could be that Thorpe is on the 40-man right now and Duran will need to be added this winter. The older of the Mets guys will need to be added this winter, while the younger one won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2022 season. Again, not a deal-breaker or anything, but it could be a factor.)


#70 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 01:02 PM

It could be competitive but I don't know about "easily beat". Fangraphs has these two at 50 and 40 FV, while both of the Mets guys were 45 FV. MLB Pipeline seems to grade higher, and has them all at 50.

(Another factor could be that Thorpe is on the 40-man right now and Duran will need to be added this winter. The older of the Mets guys will need to be added this winter, while the younger one won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2022 season. Again, not a deal-breaker or anything, but it could be a factor.)


I threw out those names with the assumption the Mets wanted near ready MLB pitching prospects. If they prefer keeping players off the 40 for a couple of years, we all know the team is littered with those guys too... Enlow, Colina, Alcala, Canterino, etc.

#71 spycake

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 01:17 PM

 

I threw out those names with the assumption the Mets wanted near ready MLB pitching prospects. If they prefer keeping players off the 40 for a couple of years, we all know the team is littered with those guys too... Enlow, Colina, Alcala, Canterino, etc.

And those guys are all rated at 40 FV or lower at Fangraphs, below the two Mets guys.

 

Obviously we don't exactly how the Jays view all of these guys, but it's not clear-cut that we could have easily beat it.

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#72 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 01:27 PM

And those guys are all rated at 40 FV or lower at Fangraphs, below the two Mets guys.

Obviously we don't exactly how the Jays view all of these guys, but it's not clear-cut that we could have easily beat it.


A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

#73 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 01:47 PM

 

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

 

Was it a competition this team really wanted to win? Seems like half of the posters her are luke warm on him at best.

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#74 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 01:52 PM

Was it a competition this team really wanted to win? Seems like half of the posters her are luke warm on him at best.

There are reasons not to love Stroman, lots of them. I’d still take him, though.

But given how the front office seemed so lukewarm on him given their reported interest, there’s probably something they don’t like about him (also notice the Astros appeared to have no interest as well, not a great sign).
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#75 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 02:06 PM

Was it a competition this team really wanted to win? Seems like half of the posters her are luke warm on him at best.


So.... Status quo in TD Land? We could acquire Mike Trout and half of the members would be lukewarm about the prospects given up to acquire him.

Edited by Vanimal46, 29 July 2019 - 02:06 PM.


#76 drivlikejehu

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 02:06 PM

Any time the Mets value someone the highest, that tells you something. 

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#77 spycake

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 02:07 PM

 

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.

I mean, we certainly could have beat it. If not Balazovic and Duran, then Graterol plus one of those two,I would think those offers could have topped the Mets. (Not to mention, Lewis or Kirilloff could do it too!) The question is, do you want to beat it by offering that much? I'm not sure, for Stroman. Especially if those prospects could be part of a Syndergaard deal instead.

 

Now, maybe a Syndergaard deal is a long shot at best and we should have grabbed Stroman instead. It's worthy of debate. Hopefully the next few days give us some more data.

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#78 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 02:41 PM

 

There are reasons not to love Stroman, lots of them. I’d still take him, though.

But given how the front office seemed so lukewarm on him given their reported interest, there’s probably something they don’t like about him (also notice the Astros appeared to have no interest as well, not a great sign).

 

The Astros also got Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Wade Miley to drop or reduce their 2 seamer usage, and appeared to have no interest in reuniting with Dallas Keuchel. 

 

My theory has been that the Twins don't like their starters using that pitch very much and it wouldn't surprise me if they've been taking their queues from Houston.

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#79 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 03:48 PM

A top 10 MLB farm system can't easily beat out 2 45 FV prospects in a bottom 10 farm system. Got it.


Of course they could beat it.
My point was to illustrate that in order to "easily" beat it, as you suggested, would almost certainly require sending Graterol or Balazovic, or even both, depending on how much value the Jays place on proximity to the majors.
I'm ok moving one of those guys, but I'd prefer we aim a little higher than Stroman if we do.

The Twins aren't going to gut their system, no matter how much some posters may want them to. Which means any deal involving one of their "big 3" (Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol), is likely to be the only big time player acquired.

If the deadline passes with nobody better than Romo acquired, I'll be right there with you questioning why they didn't try to top the Mets for Stroman.
But if they passed because they know they only plan on firing one bullet from their big 3, and that 1 bullet is for a player they like more than Stroman, then I totally get it.
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#80 Vanimal46

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 03:55 PM

Of course they could beat it.
My point was to illustrate that in order to "easily" beat it, as you suggested, would almost certainly require sending Graterol or Balazovic, or even both, depending on how much value the Jays place on proximity to the majors.
I'm ok moving one of those guys, but I'd prefer we aim a little higher than Stroman if we do.

The Twins aren't going to gut their system, no matter how much some posters may want them to. Which means any deal involving one of their "big 3" (Lewis/Kirilloff/Graterol), is likely to be the only big time player acquired.

If the deadline passes with nobody better than Romo acquired, I'll be right there with you questioning why they didn't try to top the Mets for Stroman.
But if they passed because they know they only plan on firing one bullet from their big 3, and that 1 bullet is for a player they like more than Stroman, then I totally get it.


Maybe it's just me, but I have a higher value placed on Duran, a 21 year recently promoted to AA, over a 24 year old who's struggling in AAA and an 18 year old rookie ball pitcher. It didn't require Balazovic or Graterol to easily beat this deal.

I first mentioned Duran and Thorpe. If they wanted someone further away from 40 man consideration substitute Thorpe for Enlow, Leach, Berroa, Sands, etc.



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