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Article: What Will It Take to Acquire Marcus Stroman?

marcus stroman minnesota twins mlb trade rumors trevor larnach toronto blue jays
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#21 GCTF

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 10:28 AM

I doubt the Jays have much interest in Gordon since they have Bichette and Biggio up the middle.

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#22 JLease

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 10:42 AM

Some of it depends on what the Jays are looking for, of course. But Larnach seems to be a logical starting point, along with 2-3 other guys. I like Griffin Jax quite a bit and he could be very interesting to a team like Toronto...or they might not think he has much of a future at all. Someone like Gonsalves is a bit of a "sell low" right now, but there's also enough minor league track record to make a team think "we can get him back on track and make them look foolish".

 

Considering some of the 40-man crunch that's pending, the Twins could be looking to package together more of a quantity deal with only 1 top-end player (like a Larnach). 

 

How much has Lewin Diaz or Travis Blankenhorn's stock risen with their performances this season?

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#23 USAFChief

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 10:45 AM

What will it take?

 

Courage.

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#24 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:42 AM

 

While the thread is "what will it take," I do agree that questions surrounding the nebulous term "makeup" could reduce Stroman's trade value more than analytic tools would suggest. An extreme amount of due-diligence would be expected from my evaluation team, regarding this point. My manager unconsciously shaking his head while pondering how to answer my question might be enough of a veto.

 

A corner outfielder should be the headliner of a trade if at all possible, and Larnach is a logical candidate. Almost certainly an arm has to be offered as well. Problem is that rebuilding teams want high-end pitching prospects, and if another contender is prepared to offer a top-rated arm, it may be necessary to follow suit, and in that case Larnach is almost too much to pair with that.

 

I've been skeptical about loading up with corner position players in the draft as "safer" picks than pitchers, because when it comes time to trade... other teams will reply "we've got somebody of our own who is about that good." Luckily, Toronto might consider themselves a little thin in that department.

 

I might try Larnach, Alcala, and Gordon, if my relationship with Toronto is cordial enough that it can withstand an offer being laughed at, and then try to go from there. I add Celestino instantly, which the tradevalues site then considers an overpay, and maybe ask for a lottery-pick prospect in return as well to rebalance things. Alcala may not be of interest to them, though - then we haggle over better arms and it starts getting painful.

 

Or... that's where Giles comes into the conversation...

I've got to think some of this winter's Rule V guys would fall into play... as would some of our excess on the 40 man. I believe Alcala fits that bill, and I think someone like Gonsalves might be a good option as well. Gonsalves isn't high end, but his pedigree says he could be a decent ML pitcher and just needs developing (which Toronto has ample room to do).

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#25 Riverbrian

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 12:04 PM

 

Need Bullpen Help Now!! Starters aren't our problem.

 

Yet

 

Lose one and the scenario will change on a dime. 

 

 

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#26 ashbury

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 12:23 PM

Yet

 

Lose one and the scenario will change on a dime. 

"Two truths throughout baseball history. No team ever made any money, and you never have too much pitching." -- Donald Fehr, paraphrased

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#27 spycake

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 12:44 PM

 

I think your trade proposal of Larnach, Thorpe, and Gordon, plus Jeffers or another good prospect could get us Boyd from Detroit.

I don't know about that. That's not a bad package (and it passes at baseballtradevalues.com), but I think Detroit will be looking for more quality than just quantity with their best trade asset. And with 3.5 years of control remaining, they have some time to decide too.

 

Unless of course Detroit suspects Boyd's 2019 K rate is just a mirage (or won't translate into sustained success) and want to cash him in now, in which case maybe *we* don't want to make that deal...


#28 spycake

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 12:53 PM

 

I doubt the Jays have much interest in Gordon since they have Bichette and Biggio up the middle.

Yeah. Biggio is getting deployed as a utility guy right now, but the Jays probably wouldn't prioritize adding another MLB-ready middle infield prospect like Gordon right now (unless they really, really like him, of course).

 

I could see them wanting to replace Gordon with a pitcher, an outfielder, or a catcher.


#29 spycake

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 12:56 PM

 

Does KC have any other decent BP arms that would allow the Twins to take on some extra Ian Kennedy salary to entice for two decent relievers (Ian plus one)?

Not really. Diekman, maybe? But I'd be wary of adding too many current KC relievers if I am try to compete right now!

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#30 spycake

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 01:04 PM

 

I would definitely do that deal. Do the Jays have a lefty reliever they can throw in too?

Tim Mayza, maybe? He has some good numbers vs LHB, although his K% is actually lower vs LHB than RHB. And he might be a bit too much of a project for a pennant race acquisition...


#31 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 02:43 PM

MLB.com suggests that getting Stroman will require a Chris Archer type package.

 

Another intriguing guy from the Blue Jays would be Daniel Hudson. Control is a little iffy, but he has been pretty good since June 1st.


#32 twinstalker

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 09:57 PM

The idea that Gordon is MLB-ready is just funny. Remember that when he finally gets called up to some team. My over/under for him being MLB-ready is about 2-3 years after he gets his first call.


#33 SwainZag

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 10:06 PM

 

MLB.com suggests that getting Stroman will require a Chris Archer type package.

 

Another intriguing guy from the Blue Jays would be Daniel Hudson. Control is a little iffy, but he has been pretty good since June 1st.

 

Stroman is and never has been the quality of pitcher that Archer was before the trade.That would be a drastic overpay IMO


#34 Bart07

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 04:35 AM

What if we built a trade around Stroman and Giles. What do you think that would cost? Both have one and half years of control left.

 

I think then your getting into looking at Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol as the headliner. I am guessing they would be looking at Graterol as the only arm coming through their system at the moment looks like Pearson.

 

So maybe a package of Graterol, Larnach, Duran and Gordon would work? But giving away one of Graterol, Kirilloff or Lewis will haunt us for the next 10 years plus, so it's about weighing up whether you can win the World Series with a Stroman and Giles?

 

Giles in my eyes is an elite closer in the right situation so I personally would just be looking at Giles, to give us a 1-2 punch of Rogers and Giles at the back of the pen for this and next year.


#35 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 05:26 AM

 

The idea that Gordon is MLB-ready is just funny. Remember that when he finally gets called up to some team. My over/under for him being MLB-ready is about 2-3 years after he gets his first call.

 

to be fair, that's true of most minor leaguers.

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#36 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 05:28 AM

 

What if we built a trade around Stroman and Giles. What do you think that would cost? Both have one and half years of control left.

 

I think then your getting into looking at Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol as the headliner. I am guessing they would be looking at Graterol as the only arm coming through their system at the moment looks like Pearson.

 

So maybe a package of Graterol, Larnach, Duran and Gordon would work? But giving away one of Graterol, Kirilloff or Lewis will haunt us for the next 10 years plus, so it's about weighing up whether you can win the World Series with a Stroman and Giles?

 

Giles in my eyes is an elite closer in the right situation so I personally would just be looking at Giles, to give us a 1-2 punch of Rogers and Giles at the back of the pen for this and next year.

 

I think you're overpaying by throwing Duran in there personally. I think a lower 3rd piece could get it done. I'd be pushing more for a Gonsalves/Acala type. But that's just me.

 

That said, I'm not a huge Stroman fan, so perhaps that's part of the problem.


#37 spycake

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 06:10 AM

Stroman is and never has been the quality of pitcher that Archer was before the trade. That would be a drastic overpay IMO


Are you sure about that? At the time of the trade, Archer had a career 107 ERA+ and his three most recent season marks were 100, 103, 97.

Stroman has a 113 career mark, and his three most recent are 145, 76, 148.

#38 spycake

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 06:25 AM

And at Fangraphs, Archer had a career 92 ERA- / 87 FIP- / 84 xFIP-, compared to Stroman's 89/85/84.

https://www.fangraph...date=2019-12-31

Previous 3 years by ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-
Archer
98/93/80
96/80/76
104/88/86

Stroman
71/88/82
130/92/91
67/78/88

#39 Bart07

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 06:52 AM

Yea I would be pushing for Giles! I like the idea of a lefty (Rogers), righty (Giles) combo at the closer role. So you can bring either Rogers or Giles in depending on the situation. Just think the Blue Jays will ask a lot for him.


#40 nicksaviking

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 07:03 AM

If Stroman doesn't start missing more bats, I'd rather look elsewhere. I don't trust pitchers who intentionally pitch to contact here in 2019.

 

If the Rockies are listening to Charile Blackmon, that probably means they'd listen on Jon Gray. He's a name I haven't heard much of but I like to rescue from Colorado.

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