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Article: Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll

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#41 howeda7

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 05:40 PM

 

I would offer him a contract on par with Acuna's to start. I don't know if Buxton would take it. The risk of injury is always going to be there but I don't think the Twins should try to low-ball him with that being their excuse.

 

How about 6 years, $100M. $10M per year of arbitration remaining, then $20M for the 4 years after. The Twins should be getting the absolute best and most productive years of Buxton's career at that point, and he would hit the market again as a 31-year-old in position to cash in at least one more time.

Wow. Hard pass on that. I'm not paying $20 million per year for a guy who will likely never play more then 120 games.

 

And his offense makes it unlikely he'll get $10 million/year in arbitration. I'd be willing to go something like 4/$44 starting at $8 million/year and escalating $2 million per year. Buying out two FA years for $26 million.

Edited by howeda7, 19 July 2019 - 05:42 PM.


#42 nater79a

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 10:24 PM

 

You didn't mention Matt Boyd, but that's probably a top name for a rotation piece next year.

 

I'd argue that one or both of Gibson/Odorizzi should be potential QO/extension candidates... Pineda is slowly moving into that group too. 

 

 

I think Jeremy was just listing names that wouldn't tie up any payroll thru arbitration beyond next season.

 

Believe Matthew Boyd has three seasons of arbitration coming up (potentially).


#43 JW24

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 09:25 AM

 

Wow. Hard pass on that. I'm not paying $20 million per year for a guy who will likely never play more then 120 games.

 

And his offense makes it unlikely he'll get $10 million/year in arbitration. I'd be willing to go something like 4/$44 starting at $8 million/year and escalating $2 million per year. Buying out two FA years for $26 million.

 

If the Twins offer Buxton that contract, they are telling him they are moving on from him. That would be insultingly low.

 

The idea isn't to pay him his arbitration value in his arbitration years; it is to pay him above arbitration value for those years in order to get some of his free agency years at a discount. 2.5 years from now, $20M per year will be a discount for Byron Buxton, based on both what his performance will be and what the free agent market grows to be.


#44 Elliot

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:35 AM

(not sure of numbers too lazy to verify, but they are close)
Twins with Byron Buxton, 52 wins 23 losses (.693). Twins w/o Byron Buxton 7 wins 14 losses (.333). I know, SSS ... but it sure seems as if what he brings to the team far exceeds what the numbers would seem to say. Very important extension, with the caveat that he has missed 20% of the games ytd.

#45 ashbury

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:47 AM

(not sure of numbers too lazy to verify, but they are close)
Twins with Byron Buxton, 52 wins 23 losses (.693). Twins w/o Byron Buxton 7 wins 14 losses (.333). I know, SSS ... but it sure seems as if what he brings to the team far exceeds what the numbers would seem to say. Very important extension, with the caveat that he has missed 20% of the games ytd.

Look at 2018 and 2017 too. You won't be disappointed. :)

So, in conclusion, what was your question again?


#46 howeda7

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:55 PM

 

If the Twins offer Buxton that contract, they are telling him they are moving on from him. That would be insultingly low.

 

The idea isn't to pay him his arbitration value in his arbitration years; it is to pay him above arbitration value for those years in order to get some of his free agency years at a discount. 2.5 years from now, $20M per year will be a discount for Byron Buxton, based on both what his performance will be and what the free agent market grows to be.

Let him earn it then. I don't see teams lining up to pay him $20 million year for multiple years. 


#47 JW24

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 08:43 AM

 

Let him earn it then. I don't see teams lining up to pay him $20 million year for multiple years. 

I agree with the idea of letting him earn the money, but looking at his improvements from last season to this season offensively, the only thing he needs to do to be worth $20M per year is to stay healthy and play about 150 games.

 

Other teams don't have the luxury the Twins do with the 2 years of control after this season, but I would be willing to bet when Buxton is eligible for free agency, he would have 29 other teams willing to pay him $20M per season. Ok, maybe not the Rays.


#48 howeda7

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 07:12 PM

 

I agree with the idea of letting him earn the money, but looking at his improvements from last season to this season offensively, the only thing he needs to do to be worth $20M per year is to stay healthy and play about 150 games.

 

Other teams don't have the luxury the Twins do with the 2 years of control after this season, but I would be willing to bet when Buxton is eligible for free agency, he would have 29 other teams willing to pay him $20M per season. Ok, maybe not the Rays.

That's like saying Sam Bradford is a $20 million quarterback when healthy. Maybe he is, but it's irrelevant. If he does that a coupletimes between now and FA, then you'll be right. But if he doesn't (which is more likely) then he'll be lucky to find one team willing to do so (who are the Arizona Cardinals of MLB)?

Edited by howeda7, 21 July 2019 - 07:14 PM.

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#49 JW24

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 07:18 AM

 

That's like saying Sam Bradford is a $20 million quarterback when healthy. Maybe he is, but it's irrelevant. If he does that a coupletimes between now and FA, then you'll be right. But if he doesn't (which is more likely) then he'll be lucky to find one team willing to do so (who are the Arizona Cardinals of MLB)?

I don't know if this comparison really makes sense. There isn't a position in all the rest of sports that compares to the importance of QB.

 

Looking at the contracts players that hit free agency are signing, the market rate per 1 WAR is approximately $7M. In the one season Buxton has played more than 100 game, he was worth 5.1 bWAR (3.5 fWAR). This season he has been worth 2.7 bWAR (2.3 fWAR). This production is worth $20M per year, and if he hits the market as a free agent, someone will pay it.

 

I respect your opinion that his future contract is predicated on Buxton staying healthy. If I am the in the Twins front office, I would pay him assuming he will.


#50 yarnivek1972

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 07:34 AM

Nelson Cruz was a 2.9 bWAR player last year.

He’s not making over $20 mil.

#51 alarp33

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 08:55 AM

 

Nelson Cruz was a 2.9 bWAR player last year.

He’s not making over $20 mil.

 

Contracts are not signed to pay a player for their previous season contributions, they are signed to pay a player their expected value going forward. Nelson Cruz is 39 years old, his market is not the same as a 26 year olds when signing a FA deal

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#52 USAFChief

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 09:09 AM

 

Contracts are not signed to pay a player for their previous season contributions, they are signed to pay a player their expected value going forward. Nelson Cruz is 39 years old, his market is not the same as a 26 year olds when signing a FA deal

I huge portion of Buxton's WAR comes from defense. The methodology used to derive that defensive "worth" is pretty questionable, IMO.

 

I guess we'll see, in a couple years, if Buxton remains essentially same player, whether or not MLB front office put that kind of value on UZR.

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#53 alarp33

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 09:45 AM

 

I huge portion of Buxton's WAR comes from defense. The methodology used to derive that defensive "worth" is pretty questionable, IMO.

 

I guess we'll see, in a couple years, if Buxton remains essentially same player, whether or not MLB front office put that kind of value on UZR.

 

I'm not really making an argument either way on Buxton, more so pointing out the flaw of saying Cruz signing for less than $7 million per WAR means something for Buxton. 

 

Because of Buxton's unique skill set, but also extensive injury history, it will probably be hard to agree on a real long term deal. Maybe the Twins can offer something to buy out just 1 year of FA that makes sense for both parties

 

 

"The game has changed since I've entered, it's for bright, energetic negotiators moreso than anything I possess." - Terry Ryan 2007


#54 howeda7

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 10:27 AM

 

I don't know if this comparison really makes sense. There isn't a position in all the rest of sports that compares to the importance of QB.

 

Looking at the contracts players that hit free agency are signing, the market rate per 1 WAR is approximately $7M. In the one season Buxton has played more than 100 game, he was worth 5.1 bWAR (3.5 fWAR). This season he has been worth 2.7 bWAR (2.3 fWAR). This production is worth $20M per year, and if he hits the market as a free agent, someone will pay it.

 

I respect your opinion that his future contract is predicated on Buxton staying healthy. If I am the in the Twins front office, I would pay him assuming he will.

This is the crux of our disagreement. I'm not paying a player with 3 + years of service time assuming he will do something he's never done. He's also never sustained reasonable offensive production for more than 2-3 months at a time, and always takes awhile to get it going again when coming back from injuries.

Edited by howeda7, 22 July 2019 - 10:29 AM.




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