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Article: Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll

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#21 JW24

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 11:55 AM

 

Gloating over a lopsided deal makes zero sense either. The terms you described are exactly the terms that could leave Polanco very very frustrated. Think Berrios and Buxton, for instance, notice? My only point is that taking your best players isn't likely to help you much.

What do you do if you're Polanco or his agent?

 

Polanco was not forced to sign that offer. He decided to take the stability of the contract rather than try to cash in down the road. For a guy coming off an 80 PED suspension last year along with questions regarding how likely he will remain at SS, Polanco did pretty well for himself. If he massively outperforms his contract, then both sides benefit.

 

If I am Polanco and his agent, I am happy every single payday to see that check hit the account.

 

As for Buxton and Berrios, everything depends on when they sign. They both will likely cost more than what it took to extend Polanco and Kepler.

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#22 Tomj14

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 12:07 PM

 

Thorpe could take his spot in the rotation next year and provide the same performance at a fraction of the price.

Wait, you are expecting Thorpe next year to pitch as well as Gibson this year? If other front offices believe that they Twins could trade him straight up for just about any pitcher outside of Thor today.

It seems very unrealistic that guy that has pitched in 1 major league game could do that next year. (I really, really hope he does and it is on the Twins, but in no way am I expecting anything near that from him next year, maybe not even pitching in the majors next year)

 

To me this is pie in the sky expectation, very similar to the talk about May becoming a starter for the Twins this year.

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#23 Jham

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 12:52 PM

Polanco was not forced to sign that offer. He decided to take the stability of the contract rather than try to cash in down the road. For a guy coming off an 80 PED suspension last year along with questions regarding how likely he will remain at SS, Polanco did pretty well for himself. If he massively outperforms his contract, then both sides benefit.

If I am Polanco and his agent, I am happy every single payday to see that check hit the account.

As for Buxton and Berrios, everything depends on when they sign. They both will likely cost more than what it took to extend Polanco and Kepler.


If he's cool making a fourth of what he's worth because the Twins took advantage of their leverage (rookie deals Polanco didn't get to negotiate), them good for him. Pro athletes are competitive by nature. History indicates few players are able to ignore being underpaid in relation to performance. Other players watch how our management treats players and negotiations. Polanco is one of our best players. Maybe he'll be happy with the deal going forward, maybe not. But the situation should be on the radar, imo.

#24 SwainZag

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 01:14 PM

 

If he's cool making a fourth of what he's worth because the Twins took advantage of their leverage (rookie deals Polanco didn't get to negotiate), them good for him. Pro athletes are competitive by nature. History indicates few players are able to ignore being underpaid in relation to performance. Other players watch how our management treats players and negotiations. Polanco is one of our best players. Maybe he'll be happy with the deal going forward, maybe not. But the situation should be on the radar, imo.

 

Jorge's deal breaks down as follows:

 

2020: $3.8M

2021: $4.3M

2022: $5.5M

2023: $7.5M

2024: $10.5M

2025: $12M

 

That's certainly not a bad contract for someone with just over 1000 PA who hit had a slash line of .272/.329/.420 slash line and had some pretty questionable defense at SS thus far in his career.Like JW stated, he also had the 80 game suspension last year and another screw up and he's gone for a year.Yes, the Twins had leverage, but they also took on risk he would improve as a player.So far this season it looked like they took a good risk, but the extension doesn't kick in until next season.This is literally a non-issue.

Edited by SwainZag, 19 July 2019 - 01:19 PM.

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#25 JW24

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 01:50 PM

 

Wait, you are expecting Thorpe next year to pitch as well as Gibson this year? If other front offices believe that they Twins could trade him straight up for just about any pitcher outside of Thor today.

It seems very unrealistic that guy that has pitched in 1 major league game could do that next year. (I really, really hope he does and it is on the Twins, but in no way am I expecting anything near that from him next year, maybe not even pitching in the majors next year)

 

To me this is pie in the sky expectation, very similar to the talk about May becoming a starter for the Twins this year.

 

Kyle Gibson has been worth .8 WAR this season in 19 starts (105.1 innings). My opinion is that Thorpe could be that good (average?), yes.


#26 yarnivek1972

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:04 PM

I would be really surprised if the Twins do not extend Buxton this offseason. Considering the front office did not call him up last September, resulting in an extra year of team control (a move I was in favor of and got somewhat roasted on Twitter for supporting), offering Buxton an extension to buy out his remaining years of arbitration and then some should be a priority. Does an extension like Acuna's get the job done (8 years, $100M)? I suspect that is not enough, but I think Buxton deserves a big contract at this point.

I really like Rosario, but I don't think the Twins can extend everyone, and I think he is the odd man out at this point, given the OF depth the Twins have coming up through the minors. Kirilloff and Larnach should help offset Rosario's offensive production at a much lower price tag in coming years. I can't see the Twins trading Rosario this season, but another year in the minors for Kirilloff and Larnach might have them ready to take over next year when Rosario still has 1.5 years of control.

Really good write-up. The Twins front office has done, in my opinion, an awesome job creating flexibility in how they will spend moving forward. They have a lot of options, which is a good thing.


What kind of a contract are you willing to give a guy that could be a couple more wall collisions from his career being over?

#27 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:11 PM

 

Jorge's deal breaks down as follows:

 

2020: $3.8M

2021: $4.3M

2022: $5.5M

2023: $7.5M

2024: $10.5M

2025: $12M

 

 

The '24 and '25 option have increased by $500k too because of his All-Star appearance. Can go up another $500k with another one too.

 

But I agree: Non-issue.


#28 JW24

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:12 PM

 

What kind of a contract are you willing to give a guy that could be a couple more wall collisions from his career being over?

 

I would offer him a contract on par with Acuna's to start. I don't know if Buxton would take it. The risk of injury is always going to be there but I don't think the Twins should try to low-ball him with that being their excuse.

 

How about 6 years, $100M. $10M per year of arbitration remaining, then $20M for the 4 years after. The Twins should be getting the absolute best and most productive years of Buxton's career at that point, and he would hit the market again as a 31-year-old in position to cash in at least one more time.


#29 Jham

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:20 PM

Jorge's deal breaks down as follows:

2020: $3.8M
2021: $4.3M
2022: $5.5M
2023: $7.5M
2024: $10.5M
2025: $12M

That's certainly not a bad contract for someone with just over 1000 PA who hit had a slash line of .272/.329/.420 slash line and had some pretty questionable defense at SS thus far in his career. Like JW stated, he also had the 80 game suspension last year and another screw up and he's gone for a year. Yes, the Twins had leverage, but they also took on risk he would improve as a player. So far this season it looked like they took a good risk, but the extension doesn't kick in until next season. This is literally a non-issue.

Ok... I think I may have figured or why we're disagreeing.

The final $22 million of that contract isn't guaranteed. Almost half of it. Year 6 is a vesting option that almost certainly benefits the team. Year 7 is a team option, which again, is only picked up if it benefits the team. His AAV the team is on the hook for is just over $5mil/yr for 5 years. And it's back loaded sho he doesn't even get the benefit of present value (imagine the Twins investing his remaining contract vs Polanco investing from day 1).

For the record, I wasn't saying it wasn't a fair deal at the time. I'm questioning whether we'll still consider it a fair deal going forward and for how long.

Edited by Jham, 19 July 2019 - 02:21 PM.


#30 Tomj14

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:22 PM

 

Kyle Gibson has been worth .8 WAR this season in 19 starts (105.1 innings). My opinion is that Thorpe could be that good (average?), yes.

For pitchers with more than 60 innings in the American League
Per FanGraphs

25th in innings pitched
23rd in K/9
25th in BB/9
24th in HR/9
37th in BABIP
25th in ERA
22nd in FIP
10th in xFip
18th in WAR

Which puts him at the very bottom of a number two starter and the top of the number 3 starters.
You are expecting Thorpe to put up these numbers next year, and can't do it in AAA this year?
If Thorpe was expected to do this next year in the majors every since person that does a prospect list would have him in the top 50 prospects in all of baseball and probably 3rd in the Twins?
On top of it took Berrios close to three years to do it?

As much as Gibson drives me nuts quite a bit of the time, in 2019 he is a pretty good starting pitcher and way undervalued by Twins fans (including me)

Edited by Tomj14, 19 July 2019 - 02:25 PM.

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#31 Major League Ready

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:26 PM

 

Kyle Gibson has been worth .8 WAR this season in 19 starts (105.1 innings). My opinion is that Thorpe could be that good (average?), yes.

 

Depends on if you are looking at bWAR or fWAR. Fangraphs has Gibson at 2.1 / Odorizzi at 2.2 and Berrios at 2.9 WAR. Regardless, Thorpe has not been nearly as dominant as Smeltzer in terms of MiLB performance. Why would you favor him over Smeltzer? 


#32 TouchEmAllGuy

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:33 PM

The Pohlad's won't increase payroll just because revenue is up. It is a business to them. IMO

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#33 jokin

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:40 PM

 


Also I personally did not realize Rosario only has 2.5 years left with us, he is someone we need to lock up. He finds a way to impress me year after year.

 

Tough decisions coming for the FO, with Rosario the most important of the position players. If they think that Kiriloff will be ready by mid-season 2020, Rosario will likely be the one moved while there's still trade value. Hard to imagine, but they probably can't afford to extend Rosario and replace/re-up all of the departing/extended Starting Pitchers.

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#34 JW24

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:41 PM

 

Depends on if you are looking at bWAR or fWAR. Fangraphs has Gibson at 2.1 / Odorizzi at 2.2 and Berrios at 2.9 WAR. Regardless, Thorpe has not been nearly as dominant as Smeltzer in terms of MiLB performance. Why would you favor him over Smeltzer? 

 

I think Thorpe's velocity gives him an advantage over Smeltzer in regards to staying in a MLB rotation. He is also still on the comeback trail from TJ, and I am assuming he will continue to improve from what we saw from his one outing. Again, just my opinion here.

 

As to Tomj14's point, I agree Gibson is undervalued. However, with his contract coming up at the end of this year, I think the Twins can replace his spot in the rotation and get similar results for a fraction of the price.


#35 SwainZag

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:43 PM

 

Ok... I think I may have figured or why we're disagreeing.

The final $22 million of that contract isn't guaranteed. Almost half of it. Year 6 is a vesting option that almost certainly benefits the team. Year 7 is a team option, which again, is only picked up if it benefits the team. His AAV the team is on the hook for is just over $5mil/yr for 5 years. And it's back loaded sho he doesn't even get the benefit of present value (imagine the Twins investing his remaining contract vs Polanco investing from day 1).

For the record, I wasn't saying it wasn't a fair deal at the time. I'm questioning whether we'll still consider it a fair deal going forward and for how long.

 

AH it was a 7 year extension, I should have noticed that.They didn't go to ARB this year.So they bought out all 4 years of his arbitration and gave him a 3 year extension onto that with 2 being team options.The contract will work out for both of them.If he doesn't play well, he probably won't vest that option and be able to hit FA after 2023.If he is good, he will earn the 10M and 12M, and hit FAafter 2024.

 

 

 


#36 Tomj14

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:49 PM

 

 

As to Tomj14's point, I agree Gibson is undervalued. However, with his contract coming up at the end of this year, I think the Twins can replace his spot in the rotation and get similar results for a fraction of the price.

Last comment(s) because I have to go for the day, have a good weekend.

 

The Twins tried buying that last year with Ordo and Lynn and didn't get it, and may other teams did as well (the Cubs for example)

the Twins have tried that they last two years with Rookies and haven't gotten it either, so I don't think it is that simple to just pick up a top end #3 starter.

But I am hoping and praying Thorpe turn out close to as good as Gibson for his and the Twins (fans) sake next year and in the future.

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#37 JW24

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:53 PM

 

Last comment(s) because I have to go for the day, have a good weekend.

 

The Twins tried buying that last year with Ordo and Lynn and didn't get it, and may other teams did as well (the Cubs for example)

the Twins have tried that they last two years with Rookies and haven't gotten it either, so I don't think it is that simple to just pick up a top end #3 starter.

But I am hoping and praying Thorpe turn out close to as good as Gibson for his and the Twins (fans) sake next year and in the future.

 

I agree that finding a solid #3 is not easy, and I don't take Gibson for granted (despite how my opinions may sound). 

 

Nice to chat with you, have a good weekend as well!

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#38 bighat

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:59 PM

 

Wait, you are expecting Thorpe next year to pitch as well as Gibson this year? If other front offices believe that they Twins could trade him straight up for just about any pitcher outside of Thor today.

It seems very unrealistic that guy that has pitched in 1 major league game could do that next year. (I really, really hope he does and it is on the Twins, but in no way am I expecting anything near that from him next year, maybe not even pitching in the majors next year)

 

To me this is pie in the sky expectation, very similar to the talk about May becoming a starter for the Twins this year.

 

I have to agree, and sticking to that theme we should also feel similarly about guys like Larnach and Kiriloff to be honest. "Larnach should fill in for Rosario" is assuming a LOT.

 

Don't get me wrong, this was a great post from the OP and I love getting into the details here. But I do think it's wise to remind everyone that minor league talent is no good to the professional team unless they can play at the MLB level. We simply don't know that yet.


#39 operation mindcrime

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 04:22 PM

Don't forget that Addison Reed's $8.5 million will come off the books! :)

#40 Thrylos

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 04:58 PM

They are still paying Addison Reed $8.5M not to pitch.That cash can go long way towards covering a set up guys' salary in 2020.

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