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#1 labcrazy

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:04 PM

If the Mets were to be willing to move him to the Twins what sort of package would it take? Would something like Graterol, Javier and Larnach be enough? That too much? What do you think?


#2 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:09 PM

 

If the Mets were to be willing to move him to the Twins what sort of package would it take? Would something like Graterol, Javier and Larnach be enough? That too much? What do you think?

If Graterol was healthy, I think that'd be close to a fair price, though the Mets may want a fourth throw-in from the low minors.

 

With Graterol down... *shrugs*

 

Not likely.

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#3 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:12 PM

I don't think he's going to be traded. Almost no way.

 

I'd think you need a top 50, top 80, and two more in the 100-150 prospect range. So, Lewis or Kiriloff another guy you don't want to give up, and two from their depth of OF or SS prospects.

 

Your deal would probably be fair if Gaterol were not injured. Now? I doubt it.

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#4 labcrazy

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:14 PM

 

If Graterol was healthy, I think that'd be close to a fair price, though the Mets may want a fourth throw-in from the low minors.

 

With Graterol down... *shrugs*

 

Not likely.

Ok maybe we keep Graterol and put in Balazovic (sp?)

Edited by labcrazy, 16 July 2019 - 07:17 PM.


#5 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:15 PM

 

Ok maybe we keep Graterol and put in Balosavic (sp?)

 

I really think Lewis or Kiriloff needs to be in there. 

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#6 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:17 PM

 

I really think Lewis or Kiriloff needs to be in there. 

I tend to agree but the Mets might want pitching. Hard to say.

 

Probably a no to Lewis but maybe to Kirilloff.


#7 labcrazy

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:19 PM

 

I really think Lewis or Kiriloff needs to be in there. 

Boy, that would make it hard to do. 


#8 Thrylos

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:34 PM

I think that it will take the equivalent of Humber (top 50 BA&BP), Mulvey, Gomez,(~ 50 BA&BP) & Guerra (top 50 BA).

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#9 Sconnie

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:39 PM

I think that it will take the equivalent of Humber (top 50 BA&BP), Mulvey, Gomez,(~ 50 BA&BP) & Guerra (top 50 BA).

agreed, Johan in reverse sounds about right
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#10 DocBauer

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:46 PM

IF he was on the market, it would also depend on near ML ready talent vs farther off but equal or better prospects.

I will get pushback, and that's fine, but in any major trade, I think I'd almost rather trade Lewis than Kiriloff. And understand, I dont want to trade Lewis! And I know OF/1B depth, but I just feel Kiriloff is going to be special. And with Polanco, Arreaz and some others, I just think I'd move Lewis first, if forced to.

The initial proposal is mostly fair, but if I were the Mets, I'd be looking to sweeten the deal for Gordon or Blankenhorn to give me some infield depth.

That also might let me look at someone lower on the pitching rung like Alcala or Duran or even possibly Enlow.

5 to 1 hurts! That usually means it's a good trade for both parties.

And yet, almost all of the top 10 stays intact for the Twins.
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#11 dgwills

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 07:56 PM

Syndergaard hasn't had a great year so far. May drive down the price a bit. If he's available the Twin's absolutely need to make a deal. Hate to lose Lewis or Kirriloff (which would be necessary), but if would be a good move.


#12 Thrylos

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 08:08 PM

 

Syndergaard hasn't had a great year so far. May drive down the price a bit. If he's available the Twin's absolutely need to make a deal. Hate to lose Lewis or Kirriloff (which would be necessary), but if would be a good move.

 

a. .376 BABIP and 56.8 LOB% in wet and cold April really drag his numbers.

b. something is up with his slider; he lost 4 mph this season.

c. Mets changed their pitching coach about a month ago

d. That clubhouse is a zoo.

e. That fanbase belongs in a zoo.

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#13 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 08:59 PM

If I'm the Mets

 

I'd keep Syndergaard to pair with Degrom for the next two years at least and try to continue what they started. 

 

If they want to do something shocking selling. Instead of moving Thor... Consider trading Conforto for Pitching instead.

 

They have more depth on the offensive side so they can absorb Conforto easier than Syndergaard. 

 

I wouldn't tear down the Mets just yet. 

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#14 spycake

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 06:19 AM

I think that it will take the equivalent of Humber (top 50 BA&BP), Mulvey, Gomez,(~ 50 BA&BP) & Guerra (top 50 BA).


Before anyone gets the wrong idea from this post, no, Humber was no longer a top 100 prospect anywhere by the time we acquired him. (He had been ranked sporadically previously.)

#15 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 06:24 AM

 

Before anyone gets the wrong idea from this post, no, Humber was no longer a top 100 prospect anywhere by the time we acquired him. (He had been ranked sporadically previously.)

Thank you for the clarification because that didn't seem right in my head. Guerra and Gomez highlighted that deal in my mind.

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#16 Bavarian

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 10:34 AM

I think some of the trade scenarios are for a Syndegaard that's still tearing up the league. He's not. He has injury concerns. I don't think Kiriloff is required in such a deal nor do I think they dangle him. We've got some solid secondary OF options. We also have some good IF options that not many can match. Must we throw in one of our top 2 pitching prospects? If we must, I pass on the deal.

Edited by Bavarian, 17 July 2019 - 10:38 AM.

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#17 jaimedude2

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 05:01 PM

 

If the Mets were to be willing to move him to the Twins what sort of package would it take? Would something like Graterol, Javier and Larnach be enough? That too much? What do you think?

They want great players back and the kitchen sink Think Larnach, Lewis, Blankenhorn, Balozivic, Graterol, type talent plus probably some major league eligible pitching back, think Berrios and or some combination like that. I like this pitcher but we are not getting him 


#18 Linus

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 06:47 PM

I would include Lewis in a heartbeat. Syndergaard is better than anybody in the Twins system will ever be and he has team control. I would protect Graterol before Lewis. If he gets moved off SS which many scouts think he will his value is diminished greatly
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#19 gunnarthor

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 09:52 PM

Honestly, I think the price would be pretty high. He's arguably a true ace, only 26 years old and 2.5 more years of control at reasonable cost. MLBtraderumors reported the Mets want an arm and a leg. Thor and Berrios would be a tremendous 1-2 punch in the playoffs. Thor isn't as good as Chris Sale but he's younger. He has half a season team control left when Boston made that big trade. Mets will start in that neighborhood. Chicago got the #1 prospect in baseball along with another top prospect, Michael Kopech (Mayo had him #17 pre-2017 season although others had him in the 30-50 range). Plus another top 10 Red Sox prospect and a lottery ticket. An equivalent trade might be Lewis, healthy Graterol, Duran and Rijo.

 

My guess is that there isn't a way we could do it without one of Lewis or Kiriloff. It also might be a trade where we give four prospects but also get a low level lottery ticket back. I don't think Falvine would make this kind of trade.


#20 spycake

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 10:05 AM

From the tangent in the other thread:

One other thing that should be noted about deGrom is that the Mets are paying him like a 5+ WAR pitcher and he has met that threshold that all of once in his career. Sure, there's a chance he'll reach that mark this year but probably not by much and it's far from a given.

He's not Clayton Kershaw. He's not even Chris Sale.

On top of the other issues that come with looting the farm for an expensive pitcher, I don't have a ton of faith he's going to be great going forward given his age and just how much of an outlier 2018 was compared to the rest of his career.

Good? Sure. Very good? Probably. Great? Eh... that's a hard one to answer.


Are you using fWAR?

deGrom has two 5+ bWAR seasons through age 30, despite not debuting until age 26. The same number as Greinke through the same age, and just one fewer than Scherzer, despite both debuting earlier.

Age 26-30
deGrom: 18.2 WAA, 25.3 WAR (24.4 fWAR) in 139 GS (he was first called up in his age 26 season)
Scherzer: 15.3 WAA, 24.7 WAR (24.7 fWAR) in 163 GS
Greinke: 8.8 WAA, 17.2 WAR (20.9 fWAR) in 155 GS (to be fair, Greinke's big year was age 25)

Sale so far: 14.5 WAA, 22.9 WAR (27.4 fWAR) in 141 GS
Kershaw: 21.6 WAA, 29.0 WAR (30.6 fWAR) in 134 GS

https://www.fangraph...tdate=&enddate=

I think deGrom fares pretty well in this comparison, no?