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Morin DFAed

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#41 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 07:13 AM

 

 and not the opener bit we often see high profile MLB arms get when they want to ensure they get some work in prior to a call up. 

Telephone call for Mr. Allen.

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#42 In My La-Z-boy

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 08:07 AM

 

agreed, even though I don't really trust him, he is the 2nd/3rd best relief pitcher they have right now and getting rid of him means they did a complete over haul of their pen and I don't see that happening

Trevor has improved. 4 weeks ago he couldn't drop a curve for a strike. That made the 96mph fastball very hitable. Now he just needs to take the next step in controlling the curve. If he would have dropped it in the dirt Sunday he'd have had a K - rather than giving up a bomb. He reminds me of Pressly before Pressly became Pressly. I'm optimistic about Trevor. I think he will handle playoff high leverage situations for us this year before its all said and done.

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#43 nicksaviking

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 08:19 AM

 

Agreed. And to see if there is anything left in the tank.

I'm thinking there is not.

His best shot is to finish at AAA somewhere, work hard in the offseason, and hope for an invite for 2020 somewhere. I'd like him to be a fixable steal, but just dont see it.

 

I think he's probably toast, but I'll wait until I hear some velocity readings. If he can somehow get back to 94-96ish where he used to have success, I'll probably be interested in giving him a shot. 


#44 jokin

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 01:29 AM

 

agreed, even though I don't really trust him, he is the 2nd/3rd best relief pitcher they have right now and getting rid of him means they did a complete over haul of their pen and I don't see that happening

 

What do you think they're doing.... as we speak?

 

3 (M)a down...

1 to go... May

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Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#45 jokin

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 01:35 AM

 

zero chance.

 

 

Right now he’s the second best reliever the Twins have. Even if they manage to acquire two that are better, he becomes the 4th best. So, how does trading him IMPROVE the bullpen? The reason you get new guys is to get rid of the guys at the bottom, not one of your best.

 

No one came on to revise and extend their remarks after May's 7th inning debacle against the Mets? Followed by another melt-down by Magill?

 

The dead weight is being aggressively removed by the front office. The 3 obvious "M"s are now gone. Have you looked at May's peripherals? I'm thinking the FO has noticed. Big moves down from 2018- when he wasn't even fully healthy- as we presume he now is. His FIP is up by a full run- even with a marked decline in his 2019 BABIP (.272) vs. 2018 (.298).

 

And it's not like he's "settled in" to some kind of a groove- over his last 12 games, he's throwing more strikes and less balls which is a positive, but it has come at a huge cost, as his overall effectiveness and consistency has practically fallen off the cliff:

 

First 28 games-

LD%- 21% Hard hit- 23% HR/FB- 4% BABIP- .274 FIP- 3.60

 

Last 12 games-

LD%- 30% Hard hit- 49% HR/FB- 30% BABIP- .267 FIP- 4.87

 

 

Those are some alarming, almost "batting practice-like" numbers for the "Twins 2nd best RP option." And the BABIP comp suggests it isn't related to luck.

 

Perhaps another team (like Pittsburgh has in the past with Twins pitchers) sees enough in May's stuff to think they can make some adjustments and revive his full potential, either as a starter or reliever. But, speaking as a past supporter of May, I don't see how he (and Wes) turn this around enough to become a reliable 6th/7th inning option down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Edited by jokin, 19 July 2019 - 03:10 AM.

 

Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#46 yarnivek1972

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 01:52 PM

No one came on to revise and extend their remarks after May's 7th inning debacle against the Mets? Followed by another melt-down by Magill?

The dead weight is being aggressively removed by the front office. The 3 obvious "M"s are now gone. Have you looked at May's peripherals? I'm thinking the FO has noticed. Big moves down from 2018- when he wasn't even fully healthy- as we presume he now is. His FIP is up by a full run- even with a marked decline in his 2019 BABIP (.272) vs. 2018 (.298).

And it's not like he's "settled in" to some kind of a groove- over his last 12 games, he's throwing more strikes and less balls which is a positive, but it has come at a huge cost, as his overall effectiveness and consistency has practically fallen off the cliff:

First 28 games-
LD%- 21% Hard hit- 23% HR/FB- 4% BABIP- .274 FIP- 3.60

Last 12 games-
LD%- 30% Hard hit- 49% HR/FB- 30% BABIP- .267 FIP- 4.87


Those are some alarming, almost "batting practice-like" numbers for the "Twins 2nd best RP option." And the BABIP comp suggests it isn't related to luck.

Perhaps another team (like Pittsburgh has in the past with Twins pitchers) sees enough in May's stuff to think they can make some adjustments and revive his full potential, either as a starter or reliever. But, speaking as a past supporter of May, I don't see how he (and Wes) turn this around enough to become a reliable 6th/7th inning option down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Yes, May is still the second best reliever on the roster. That hasn’t changed. Duffey has been horrible all year. Parker has been up and down. Harper’s numbers look good, but he’s smoke and mirrors. Harper’s FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. Parker’s is almost 2 runs higher. Mays’ is about 1/4 of a run higher than his ERA. Suggests that Harper and Parker have been exceptionally lucky. Harper has allowed 13 of 29 inherited runners to score. Parker just 1 of 9. May just 1 of 15. Even Rogers has allowed 4 of 12.

May still has the second best K rate, HR rate, extra base hit rate, and THE BEST inherited runner stand rate among the five relievers that have been at the MLB level more or less all year.

So, yes, May is still number two. There is simply an enormous drop from 1 to 2.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 19 July 2019 - 01:55 PM.

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#47 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:51 PM

Yes, May is still the second best reliever on the roster. That hasn’t changed. Duffey has been horrible all year. Parker has been up and down. Harper’s numbers look good, but he’s smoke and mirrors. Harper’s FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. Parker’s is almost 2 runs higher. Mays’ is about 1/4 of a run higher than his ERA. Suggests that Harper and Parker have been exceptionally lucky. Harper has allowed 13 of 29 inherited runners to score. Parker just 1 of 9. May just 1 of 15. Even Rogers has allowed 4 of 12.
May still has the second best K rate, HR rate, extra base hit rate, and THE BEST inherited runner stand rate among the five relievers that have been at the MLB level more or less all year.
So, yes, May is still number two. There is simply an enormous drop from 1 to 2.

With relievers and their inherent small sample we can probably pick stats to fit any narrative. Did you know that Duffey has not allowed an inherited runner to score this year? Did you know he has an xFIP- of 81? I will add that his K%-BB% of 22.4% is well above league average and only Rogers is better on the Twins.

That narrative is very different from a horrible pitcher. My point isn’t that he is a valuable reliever but only that it is very difficult to use the result based stats available to us to argue one way or the other about the value of a reliever. At Duffey’s 133 batters faced the only result based stats starting to stabilize are strikeout rate and walk rate but even then I don’t think it is enough sample to project the next few months reliably.

Edited by jorgenswest, 19 July 2019 - 02:52 PM.


#48 stringer bell

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 05:08 PM

Inherited runners is an interesting but misleading stat. If a pitcher comes in with the bases loaded and none out and allows a run to score, was he ineffective? If another reliever comes in with two outs and a man on first, it’s just not the same and allowing that runner to score is ineffective.
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#49 howeda7

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 05:47 PM

At the moment, I have the 2nd most confidence in Littell. Which is scary. Send help, Falvine.

Edited by howeda7, 19 July 2019 - 05:48 PM.

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#50 yarnivek1972

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 06:16 PM

Inherited runners is an interesting but misleading stat. If a pitcher comes in with the bases loaded and none out and allows a run to score, was he ineffective? If another reliever comes in with two outs and a man on first, it’s just not the same and allowing that runner to score is ineffective.


I suspect that has a tendency to balance out. FWIW, May has an average leverage index of about 1.4 (third highest among active relievers behind Rogers and Parker) while Harper is just under 1, which means May has been called upon in more critical situations.
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#51 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 08:26 AM

Morin traded to the Phillies for cash considerations.
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#52 Rigby

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 08:30 AM

 

Morin traded to the Phillies for cash considerations.

 

Last 4 trades all for cash considerations - Morin, Jay, Andreoli and Rosales. Building that war chest a nickel at a time....

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#53 rdehring

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 08:32 AM

 

Morin traded to the Phillies for cash considerations.

Anyone know if it is cash, like in a check or wire transfer, or cash as-in International dollars?

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#54 ashbury

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 08:37 AM

Anyone know if it is cash, like in a check or wire transfer, or cash as-in International dollars?

Covering the tip, next time they have dinner together.

 

 

/ edit - and, just to kill the joke by explaining it, the intended subtext is "this is a really small transaction", not "teh Pohladzes are teh cheap." :)

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#55 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 08:38 AM

Last 4 trades all for cash considerations - Morin, Jay, Andreoli and Rosales. Building that war chest a nickel at a time....


All of that cash will be used 2 years from now when (insert ace FA pitcher name here) becomes a free agent.
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#56 Shaitan

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 08:41 AM

 

Anyone know if it is cash, like in a check or wire transfer, or cash as-in International dollars?

I feel like they'd specify if it was international dollars.

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#57 gil4

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:26 AM

 

I feel like they'd specify if it was international dollars.

I'm not sure it's even dollars (plural) at all. 

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#58 gil4

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:31 AM

 

What do you think they're doing.... as we speak?

 

3 (M)a down...

1 to go... May

 

Do they just hate guys with last names that start with M? They got rid of Mauer and Molitor in the offseason before starting on the bullpen.

Edited by gil4, 20 July 2019 - 10:31 AM.

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#59 ashbury

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:35 AM

Do they just hate guys with last names that start with M? They got rid of Mauer and Molitor in the offseason before starting on the bullpen.

Woah.

 

364eh8.jpg

 

Tim Melville, Darin Mastroianni, Tommy Milone... the list literally goes on, the further back you go. It's a long-term pattern with this team, perhaps spanning decades! Further research is called for. How did we miss this pattern? The signs were all there!

 

Trevor May is indeed a marked man.

 

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#60 GCTF

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Posted 20 July 2019 - 10:42 AM

 

Woah.

 

364eh8.jpg

 

Tim Melville, Darin Mastroianni, Tommy Milone... the list literally goes on, the further back you go. It's a long-term pattern with this team, spanning decades! How did we miss this pattern? The signs were all there!

 

Trevor May is indeed a marked man.

Mitch, Miguel, Max and Marwin should be OK, seems to be a last name thing. Trevor May, however, shouldn't buy any green bananas.

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Endut! Hoch Hech!