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Article: Wouldja? Trading For Giants Closer Will Smith

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 09:06 PM

It’s easy to say we want the Twins to go out and get a top shelf reliever, but what exactly would one cost? Last year’s trade market can provide some hints. Eight high-level relievers were traded last June and July, giving us some idea how teams value relievers and their own prospects. Let’s look at one, compare them to players this year, and see if you would make that deal.7/26/18 - Chicago White Sox trade Joakim Soria to Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Wilber Perez

Five days before the trade deadline, the Brewers got their shutdown setup man. Joakim Soria had been the White Sox closer, posting a tidy 2.56 ERA with the requisite stats (11.4 K/9) to match. He was purely a rental as he had a player option at the end of the year which he was sure to exercise, making him a free agent.

That sounds a lot like Will Smith, the left-handed closer for the Giants, who is one of the more highly sought relievers at the deadline. Both have fantastic stuff, both have been closers this year, but are probably better used as setup men. Both are veterans, and (most importantly) both will be free agents. I suspect most would probably rather have Smith over Soria, so we’ll make sure the second half of the trade upgrades the prospects a bit, too.

To get Soria, the Brew Crew had to give up two minor league arms:

Kodi Medeiros was a former first round draft pick (12th overall) who had struggled in the minors, especially with his control. But the 22-year-old was doing better, both with his control (3.9 BB/9) and with the results (3.14 ERA) in AA.

Kohl Stewart (#37 on Twins Daily’s midseason prospect list) is not a terrible comp for him in the Twins system. He was also a high draft pick, and also struggled. Has also bounced back a little, and is level higher and two years older. I think most would choose Stewart, but we need to upgrade the package a little anyway.

Wilber Perez was a 20-year-old right-hander who was pitching in the Dominican Summer League at the time he was acquired. He has had success there (1.92 ERA) and to a lesser extent this year in Low A (3.92 ERA), but he reportedly has about a 91 mph fastball, so this is not a fire-thrower.

Twins prospect Edwar Colina is a level higher, two years older, and has a little more success, so he’s a rich man’s Perez. Colina is also the #24 Twins prospect in our 2019 midseason prospect ranking. But we’re trying to upgrade the package, so let’s keep him as the comp.

So, would you trade Stewart and Colina to get Giants closer Smith? You can tell us below, just register and give us your breakdown.

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#2 Jaykay

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 09:46 PM

Yes

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#3 beckmt

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:02 PM

Yes

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#4 beckmt

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:04 PM

Qualifier,think Giants are looking more for infield and outfield prospects than pitchers, but nice comparison. Maybe Gordon, plus low level prospect or just Gordon.

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#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:06 PM

Already giving up Stewart, I don't see why it would take a RHP prospect in AA who hits triple-digits too. 

 

To be fair, a 20-year-old still in the DSL isn't even a prospect anymore... 

 

then again, maybe it's just me... I have Colina as my #13 Twins prospect, and I might have a thing for your pitchers capable of being a starter who hits 100 mph pretty much every game and has three or four pitches and is already at AA.

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#6 Han Joelo

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:07 PM

How about Prelander Berroa instead of Colina?


#7 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:48 PM

Giants can probably do better.


#8 Otwins

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 11:00 PM

Thanks for the research. I only saw Colina pitch two innings in spring training but I would not trade him. I would try some combination of two of Stewart, Gonsalves, Gordon, Larnach  

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#9 jokin

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 01:08 AM

 

Thanks for the research. I only saw Colina pitch two innings in spring training but I would not trade him. I would try some combination of two of Stewart, Gonsalves, Gordon,          Larnach  

 

Larnach for a rental RP? I sure hope not.

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Joyous, fact-based and tireless Twins fan for 40+ years, who unfortunately has been characterized as-

 

"forcing Twins fans to endure more bitter, baseless, and tiresome cheap shots about the Twins FO."


#10 the_brute_squad

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 05:02 AM

I like it. I don't see Stewart panning out for us so this is as good a time to cut bait with him as any.


#11 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 05:25 AM

Colina isn't a good comparison. As Seth said, a 20 year old in the DSL isn't really a prospect at that point. That's 3 seasons of not getting promoted... I'm guessing that's a bit high.

 

That siad, I'd do it. 


#12 Tomj14

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 05:43 AM

The Twins get a great relief pitcher and swap out a guy on the 40, umm yes please.

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#13 David HK

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 05:49 AM

Did you hear that?

 

That was the heartbeat that went by when considering this question.

 

Yep.


#14 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:00 AM

Giants can probably do better.


Agreed. That seems like a pretty cheap price.

#15 lukeduke1980

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:04 AM

Giants are closing in on wildcard. Maybe they trade no one.
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#16 Lunger

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:05 AM

I would do that deal in a New York minute


#17 spycake

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:12 AM

A few things:

Soria is a RHP, Smith is LHP.

Soria was 5 years older.

Sofia was making twice as much in salary.

Soria's career K/9 is only 9.8. He was likely due to regress from his 2018 numbers (and he has). Smith's career mark since moving to the pen is 12.0, so 2019 is well in line.
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#18 spycake

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:19 AM

A few more differences:

Kodi Medeiros is a LHP; Stewart is a RHP.

Neither Medeiros or Perez was on the 40-man roster at the time. (Although the White Sox did add Medeiros after the season.)

#19 spycake

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:40 AM

Finally, there is a difference between the price the Giants wind up accepting to move him somewhere, versus the price the Twins may have to pay to specifically bring him here.

Put another way: the Giants may wind up settling for a return like Stewart + filler. But, there are probably a dozen teams willing to make that kind of offer. The Twins making that offer too doesn't actually give them good odds of landing the player. If the Twins can take him or leave him, that may be fine, but if the Twins actually want to land Smith, they may need to make a better offer that could beat other offers.
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#20 Bavarian

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 06:45 AM

That's not enough! Come on now.

 

If that happened, I'd do cartwheels.

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