This season is going to come down to 3 more stretches;
From now through July 28, the Twins play 13 games against both NY squads, Oakland, and the White Sox; combined winning percentage of .538 (87 win pace).
From July 30 through August 18, the Twins play 19 games against Miami, KC, Atlanta, Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Texas; combined winning percentage of .492 (80 win pace).
From August 19 through September 15, the Twins play 25 games against the White Sox, Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, and Washington; combined winning percentage of .469 (76 win pace).
During these same periods, here's how the Indian's schedule looks;
In period 1, 14 games against Detroit, KC, Toronto; combined winning percentage of .344 (56 win pace)
In period 2, 20 games against Houston, LA Angels, Texas, Minnesota, Boston, and the Yankees (of note--these 20 games are in 20 days); combined winning percentage of .587 (95 win pace)
In period 3, 25 games against Mets, KC, Detroit, Tampa, White Sox, Minnesota, and LA Angels; combined winning percentage .492 (80 win pace)
At that point, the Twins get their final 13 games of the season against the dregs of the central, combined winning percentage of .368 (60 win pace).If the Indians are more than 3-4 games out after the game on September 15, it will be almost impossible for them to catch us.Therefore, expect the following to happen; Indians close to 3 or 4 games before the end of the month.The Twins make it all up in the next 20 games to push the lead back to the 7-9 game range, where it stays for the next month.The Twins enter their last 4 series with the Central all but locked down, and clinch at home against KC on September 22.