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Keith Law Midseason Top 50

alex kirilloff royce lewis jordan balazovic
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#1 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:07 AM

Keith Law has posted his midseason top 50 prospect list. 

 

Is behind the Insider paywall: https://www.espn.com...rospects-update

 

Three Twins accounted for:

 

#15 - Alex Kirilloff - Says bat still there, just slowed by the injuries. (#11 preseason)

 

#34 - Royce Lewis - I don't recall where he previously had him, but doesn't like the changes to his swing that occurred and calls him below average at SS, better suited for center field. (was at #9 in preseason list, so a good fall)

 

#44 - Jordan Balazovic - After pitching to his highest workload yet so far, enough has been seen to vault him up almost 60 places. 4-pitch mix with above average to plus command and remaining projection. (#102 preseason)

 

edits: included the preseason rankings.

Edited by Steve Lein, 11 July 2019 - 02:35 PM.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#2 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:13 AM

Wow. That's a huge drop for Lewis. I wonder where Gaterol would be if healthy .....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#3 amjgt

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:18 AM

If I remember correctly, Law wasn't very high on Graterol in his preseason rankings


#4 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:22 AM

Have we confirmed if these changes to Lewis's swings were done by himself, or if he was directed to do this from the Twins coaching staff?


#5 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:19 AM

 

Wow. That's a huge drop for Lewis. I wonder where Gaterol would be if healthy .....

 

Graterol was #108 preseason (in his "just missed" group with Balazovic). I would think he's moved up despite the injury.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#6 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:20 AM

Graterol was #108 preseason (in his "just missed" group with Balazovic). I would think he's moved up despite the injury.


Thanks.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#7 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:20 AM

 

If I remember correctly, Law wasn't very high on Graterol in his preseason rankings

 

On Graterol from the preseason, where he was #108: "Scouts see no projection here and a delivery that probably points to a power-reliever role."

 

https://www.espn.com...-missed-top-100

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#8 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:23 AM

 

Have we confirmed if these changes to Lewis's swings were done by himself, or if he was directed to do this from the Twins coaching staff?

 

I only have recollections of people saying Lewis made changes, but that doesn't mean I'm right. A few articles/notes out there now talking about a lot of moving parts (leg kick) and complexity to it.

 

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#9 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:33 AM

I don't know how much validity to put into a system that accounts so heavily for a half-season of minor league stats (Lewis dropping from 9 to 34). 

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#10 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:39 AM

 

I don't know how much validity to put into a system that accounts so heavily for a half-season of minor league stats (Lewis dropping from 9 to 34). 

 

What makes you think it is only based on half a season? Also, we learn more as time goes on, maybe it's that he's been in high A for a year, and hasn't hit well? Maybe it's that KLAW still doesn't think he's a SS, and his fear is more real than it was? It could be lots of things.

 

Also, maybe LOTS of guys stepped up, and just passed him. 

 

Really, half a year is a lot of data to see if you hunch/belief/projection from the past is good or not.

 

Or, you can ignore the lists, also an option. I find them mostly entertaining. Also, they are based on conversations with scouts and others around the leagues, so they probably hold some weight as to industry consensus.....

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#11 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:41 AM

 

I don't know how much validity to put into a system that accounts so heavily for a half-season of minor league stats (Lewis dropping from 9 to 34). 

 

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#12 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:50 AM

mike sixel
1:47 Royce Lewis.....is his fall mostly that your fears of him at SS are confirmed? A year of not hitting in A+? Clearly his change to his hitting is not going well. Did he do that on his own? Thanks,

 

Keith Law
1:48 Much more about not hitting/visible changes to his mechanics. I have never bought into the claims that he'll stay at short: He's not good there, and he could be very good in CF, maybe a 70 or better defender there. Most organizations would probably have moved him but the Twins have an 80 defender in center in the majors, so that may be one reason why they haven't.

 

http://meadowparty.c...awchat-7-11-19/

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#13 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:00 PM

What makes you think it is only based on half a season?

Because then Law’s preseason ranking would have had Lewis closer to 34 than to 9, for all the same reasons—doesn’t like his swing, didn’t hit well in high A to finish 2018.

Three months of stat lines is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not necessarily predictive of where he will finish the year, either.

#14 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:02 PM

 

Because then Law’s preseason ranking would have had Lewis closer to 34 than to 9, for all the same reasons—doesn’t like his swing, didn’t hit well in high A to finish 2018.

Three months of stat lines is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not necessarily predictive of where he will finish the year, either.

 

That's not how predictions about the future work. They aren't absolute, they come with all kinds of projections. As we gather more data, some of those are confirmed, or refuted. 

 

In three months, we'll only have three months more data than we do now, why would that be enough to change your mind from where it is now?

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#15 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:23 PM

In three months, we'll only have three months more data than we do now, why would that be enough to change your mind from where it is now?

That’s exactly the question I’d have for Law :)

#16 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:24 PM

 

That’s exactly the question I’d have for Law :)

 

As I said, he'll have more data to either confirm or refute his beliefs. He also talks to scouts and others around the game to do these. I'm guessing we both know his answer. Go ask him if you want.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#17 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:26 PM

Woah, look at Royce's build.

 

He filling out that man-body he talked about not having as an 18 year old.

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#18 Han Joelo

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:30 PM

Not sure how many players "graduated" off of his list, but a 25 spot slide could be even greater than it seems if given that context.

 

Law's not afraid to have an opinion, I'll give him that.

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#19 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:56 PM

 

Graterol was #108 preseason (in his "just missed" group with Balazovic). I would think he's moved up despite the injury.

Why? An injury is pretty big deal. And to his shoulder? Cripes, that's a pretty big flag. If he only pitches 47 innings this year, which is likely, after throwing 60 last year, I'd think his status has taken a huge hit. He'd be a injury plagued bullpen guy with a big arm. 

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#20 Jaykay

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:58 PM

 

Not sure how many players "graduated" off of his list, but a 25 spot slide could be even greater than it seems if given that context.

 

Law's not afraid to have an opinion, I'll give him that.

 

I didn't see the list, but I would assume it includes guys who were just drafted as well?




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