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Article: Using Derek Falvey and Thad Levine's Past to Forecast the Minnesota Twins' 2019 Trade Deadline

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#21 rdehring

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:14 PM

 

(Also, and this is the worst bit, until recently the Pohlads were the regional bottler for Pepsi. Gross.)

What is bad about being a Pepsi bottler?I don't get it?


#22 USAFChief

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:28 PM

 

What is bad about being a Pepsi bottler?I don't get it?

It's not Coke.

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#23 rdehring

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:36 PM

 

It's not Coke.

On that I agree. 

 

But the tone of where this discussion has trended is that there is something legally or morally wrong with being a Pepsi bottling company. 

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#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:57 PM

 

I'm not sure that's true. Cleveland sold off parts and reduced payroll this offseason despite being the defending division champs and the favorites to repeat.

Yep. And I don't think even the Pohlads forced the front office to do that during their 2000s run.

 

Cleveland fans should be furious right now. They're piecing together a run now but could easily be right in the mix had they spent for a few more wins in the first half of the season.

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#25 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:57 PM

 

It's not Coke.

I know. It's better than coke... so again, what's so bad about being a Pepsi bottler?


#26 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 03:15 PM

In my experience, pepsi is more likely to be on sale at my local grocery store.

#27 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 03:30 PM

I think this is hugely misunderstood. I don't know what the other ownership regimes they worked under were like, but I think people mischaracterize the Pohalds.

Let me start by saying I loathe what the Pohlads stand for in many ways. Since the next generation took over, however, they have made it clear that they are not "baseball people", and say it regularly in front of staff and even fans.

They always delegated the responsibility of payroll to Terry Ryan or Billy Smith, who were running the team under the mindset Carl ran the team on, when they were far less profitable.

They continue to delegate all responsibility to their new regime, and that regime says they spend whenever asked on infrastructure and development (I asked this directly of them at a STH meeting).

The problem with them is that they don't exude a desire to win to the fans. When the people they delegate to are budget conscious, it makes them look bad, and they have literally zero PR skills as an organization outside of cheesy feel good marketing campaigns.


Well for starters, we have a Twins Daily writer, in a different thread, confirming that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment, something 23 other teams did last year, even though it would only cost them a $1 million penalty.
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#28 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 03:31 PM

I'm not from Minnesota. What is it that the Pohlads stand for which is so lothesome?


Might have something to do with conspiring with Bud Selig to attempt to contact the franchise.
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#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 03:34 PM

 

Well for starters, we have a Twins Daily writer, in a different thread, confirming that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment, something 23 other teams did last year, even though it would only cost them a $1 million penalty.

 

which if true is sadly embarrassing.

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#30 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 03:43 PM

 

Might have something to do with conspiring with Bud Selig to attempt to contact the franchise.

Don't forget the stupid moving to North Carolina saga

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#31 Danchat

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 03:59 PM

This feels like it was written by the Twins PR department.

Until the Twins show that they'll make significant payroll additions, we should correctly assume they won't. This FO refused to add to a playoff caliber team two years, so, until they do, we should assume they won't.

My guess is that the Twins do a few minor moves to bring in bullpen help - maybe even taking on a little salary - and losing some prospects in the 15-30 range but nothing bigger than that. I think we'll hear rumors that the Twins are interested/close to making a big move but it won't pan out.


The 2017 team was ok but certainly not playoff caliber, in my opinion. They snuck into a wildcard game and got pounded, and stood little chance of winning a playoff series even if they advanced.

I believe in pushing in the chips when the time is right, and I think that time is now. I don’t think 2017 was the right time to buy expensive rental players. And I believe Falvey and Levine will get multiple players who are going to help this team. Plus, without the luxury of August trades, it raises the chance of more moves happening.
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#32 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:27 PM

 

Well for starters, we have a Twins Daily writer, in a different thread, confirming that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment, something 23 other teams did last year, even though it would only cost them a $1 million penalty.

Link?

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#33 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:30 PM

Link?


http://twinsdaily.co...e-3#entry875138

Steve's post on this page.

#34 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:41 PM

 

http://twinsdaily.co...e-3#entry875138

Steve's post on this page.

"Impression from his (Darren Wolfson's) responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool."

 

Painting that as a Twins Daily writer confirmed that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment is a bit of a stretch.

 

Here's a link to that original Tweet. Nowhere is it stated that the Twins/Pohlads refuse to go over the slot allotment. 

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#35 Matt Braun

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:43 PM

 

What was the price they paid for their new players would be interesting to know. Who were they and how highly regarded/ranked were they? Maybe that would give us Falvey and Levine s risk reward tolerance to project what they would be willing to give up.

Now that would have been a great addition to the article. Unfortunately my knowledge of Texas Rangers prospects from 2010 is limited but the full trade was Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson for Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe. Smoak was a pretty good prospect at the time if I recall correctly but I can't speak about the other guys.

 

The Andrew Miller trade on the other hand was Cleveland giving up great prospects in Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield along with some throw ins in Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen. It would be like if the Twins traded Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, and more for Felipe Vazquez. 

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#36 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:49 PM

 

... the full trade was Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson for Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe. Smoak was a pretty good prospect at the time if I recall correctly but I can't speak about the other guys.

Justin Smoak entered the 2010 season as the No. 13 overall prospect according to Baseball America and No. 17 per Baseball Prospectus. 

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#37 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 05:09 PM

"Impression from his (Darren Wolfson's) responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool."

Painting that as a Twins Daily writer confirmed that the Pohlad's refuse to authorize the FO to overspend their draft allotment is a bit of a stretch.

Here's a link to that original Tweet. Nowhere is it stated that the Twins/Pohlads refuse to go over the slot allotment.


I mean.... Have they ever gone over their draft allotment in team history?

#38 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 05:11 PM

 

I'm not sure that's true. Cleveland sold off parts and reduced payroll this offseason despite being the defending division champs and the favorites to repeat.

Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too:

 

- traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+)

- traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89)

- traded Alonso (55 OPS+)

 

I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years.

 

On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.

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#39 Tom Froemming

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 05:38 PM

 

Cleveland indeed lowered payroll, but I don't think they did it by "selling off parts", at least not in a negative way -- their 3 big offseason trades are pretty easy to justify as "baseball moves" too:

 

- traded Yan Gomes (58 OPS+)

- traded Encarnacion (117 OPS+) and Yandy Diaz (117) for Carlos Santana (149) and Jake Bauers (89)

- traded Alonso (55 OPS+)

 

I think they'd like Diaz back with that production, but it's hard to argue with what Santana is doing right now, cheaper and more flexible than Encarnacion. And the other two deals are the kind that some folks here have applauded the Twins for making the past couple years.

 

On the free agency front, yeah, they definitely should have tried harder to bring back Michael Brantley -- that was the clear, questionable money-conserving move. But otherwise, letting Allen and Miller go seem like more solid baseball moves.

Would you agree with this?: "One thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play."

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#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 05:48 PM

 

Would you agree with this?: "One thing that the Indians and Rangers didn't/don't have is an ownership group like the Pohlads. That is the one factor that I think we need to remember as being in play."

 

I'm not sure I see a real difference between MN and CLE ownership in terms of payroll over the years. What difference do you see?

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