Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene for............

  • Please log in to reply
84 replies to this topic

#41 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Twins World Champions in 2019

  • Member
  • 10,134 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:22 AM

 

 

Sure, but none of that was in his post, or how I responded. He would not trade Lewis for Giolito? He thinks they should only take a trade for an ace,I think that's his point.

I was pretty clear, I have no idea what Boyd is going ahead....

 

Lewis is one thing, Lewis + Rooker is another.As I explained above, I would have a hard time trading Rooker because he is rarer in the organizatation. My issue is trading within the division.I would have to see these guys in a White Sox or Detroit uniform.

 

-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#42 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:26 AM

Why are the Rockies dealing a guy with that much control?

When was the last time a guy like that was dealt mid season?

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#43 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:32 AM

Kevin
1:16 You are the Astros GM- trade Tucker for pitching?Is a Tucker- Boyd trade good for both teams?

Keith Law
1:16 I think it's fair.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#44 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Twins World Champions in 2019

  • Member
  • 10,134 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:39 AM

 

Why are the Rockies dealing a guy with that much control?

When was the last time a guy like that was dealt mid season?

 

Gausman had one less year of control was he was dealt with O'Day from the Os to the Braves last season.

 

Roberto Osuma had exactly the same years of control when traded from Toronto to the Astros last season

 

Pham had exactly the same amount of control when he was dealt from St Louis to Tampa last season.

 

All were about to be pretty expensive in arbitration.

 

It happens

Edited by Thrylos, 11 July 2019 - 11:43 AM.

-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#45 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:43 AM

 

Gausman had one less year of control was he was dealt with O'Day from the Os to the Braves last season.

 

Pham had exactly the same amount of control when he was dealt from St Louis to Tampa last season.

 

All were about to be pretty expensive in arbitration.

 

It happens

 

gausman had been terrible, and was on a rebuilding team that needed to give up.

 

I'm assuming that the Rockies don't want to trade actual good players.

 

I have no idea why Pham was dealt, but he's not a pitcher.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#46 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,889 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:11 PM

 

The big difference is half a year control versus three and a half. No one thinks Boyd has the cache of Verlander.

I mean, you'd control Boyd for almost as long as a rookie. If he's even a number three, that's a very valuable player.

 

Verlander was traded in 2017 and was under control through 2019 ( 2 1/2 years) In addidition, Detroit paid $8M/yr for 2018 and 2019. (see below).

 

https://www.mlb.com/...nder-c251757752

Edited by Major League Ready, 11 July 2019 - 12:11 PM.


#47 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:14 PM

 

Verlander was traded in 2017 and was under control through 2019 ( 2 1/2 years) In addidition, Detroit paid $8M/yr for 2018 and 2019. (see below).

 

https://www.mlb.com/...nder-c251757752

 

well then I'm an idiot! thanks for the correction. sigh.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#48 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:17 PM

As for why there haven't been any trades much.....I have actually done the research on this one.

 

Since 2013, almost no big name players are traded in June....if they are, it is about salary dumps for the most part. In the first two weeks of July, there have been three large trades (though I need to double check that......) in the last few years. 

 

So, it is around 50-60% of the time that a big time player is traded in the first two weeks of July.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#49 Major League Ready

Major League Ready

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,889 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:21 PM

 

well then I'm an idiot! thanks for the correction. sigh.

 

Easy mistake to make, Mike. Most of these deals are rentals. I sure wish there was a similar deal out there to be made but how many guys continue to be elite like Verlander at 36 years of age. Just another great decision by Houston.

Edited by Major League Ready, 11 July 2019 - 12:22 PM.

  • Mike Sixel likes this

#50 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    G.O.A.T.

  • Moderator
  • 14,514 posts
  • Locationthe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:22 PM

 

You might be right but I would be on the phone hot and heavy to get into the Mets stable of arms. 

 

Syndergaard is who I would target. I would trade one of Lewis or Kiriloff + 1 other guy. Or, heck, give us Zack Wheeler also and you add another 2 good prospects. These are the types they should target. Power arms. Not this crafty lefty 90-91 mph stuff. Bring in one or both of those studs and lets roll. 

 

Not against going after Wheeler as a rental either. I like both of these guys WAY more than Bumgartner, the cat from Detroit, or the Toronto Blue Jay guy.

 

Boyd as outperformed Syndergaard by a considerable margin... and he pitches in the AL, not the NL... No way I give up Lewis for Syndergaard. 

 

I wouldn't argue against Wheeler, but he's an FA next season and doesn't really solve any problems for us long term.


#51 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:22 PM

hendu
2:18 What type of player does Zach Wheeler likely bring back?

 

Craig Edwards
2:20 A back-end top-100 guy or maybe a guy just outside of that plus another, lower prospect. Something like the Happ deal or a bit less than Darvish.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#52 USAFChief

USAFChief

    Bad puns. That's how eye roll.

  • Moderator
  • 25,311 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:27 PM

 

Easy mistake to make, Mike. Most of these deals are rentals. I sure wish there was a similar deal out there to be made but how many guys continue to be elite like Verlander at 36 years of age. Just another great decision by Houston.

heh.

 

From the "Go Get Verlander" thread, 2017:

 

Major League Ready, 21 Aug 2017:

 

Bingo.It's short-sighted.Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

http://twinsdaily.co...r/?hl=verlander

  • Sconnie and curt1965 like this

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#53 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:30 PM

 

heh.

 

From the "Go Get Verlander" thread, 2017:

 

Major League Ready, 21 Aug 2017:

 

Bingo.It's short-sighted.Why on earth would you take on the last years of this type of contract and give up prospects.If you are going to spend the money associated with this type of SP, go get one next year that is 3-5 years younger and hold on to our prospects to boot.Don't spend $28M/yr and only get the years that they are very likely to decline.Go get someone still in their prime and keep the prospects.

 

http://twinsdaily.co...r/?hl=verlander

 

As I've told MLR in private conversations, being wrong when you post here does not mean you are wrong next time. Like he said, it's kind of hard to predict a man that old will still be good.

 

But, as you and I agree, I'd take that chance a lot more than the Twins seem willing to do. Prospects are nice, flags are nicer.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#54 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:36 PM

Chris
2:30 The stroman to braves Twitter storm sure is fun!! What would it take for it to actually happen?

 

Craig Edwards
2:33 As for Stroman's trade value generally, he's the best, most realistic option out there for every team. He isn't Syndergaard, but he's really good and arb eligible next season at a low rate which opens the number of suitors. He will need to make a few more starts because he hasn't started this month. I would imagine it would take one top-50ish prospect plus somebody else near the back of the top-100 to get a deal done assuming Stroman shows he's healthy.

 

https://blogs.fangra...chat-7-11-2019/

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#55 curt1965

curt1965

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 786 posts
  • LocationLuverne, Minnesota

Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:10 PM

I have no idea where the market is but my guess is that this would be a severe overpay by the Twins. 
 
Royce Lewis was the first pick overall and he is only 20 years old, plus he's a consensus Top 10 overall prospect. 
 
Nobody should let a so-so year at High A while being 20 years old taint his value to this degree.  
 
Royce Lewis by himself better be an extreme overpay. If he isn't an overpay by himself, there is no reason to pay attention to the MLB draft anymore. This is what a 1st pick overall is worth at age 20?
 
If you offer Royce Lewis by himself... the Tigers say yes in less than a second, they don't wait for a better offer to come along




Hey Brian-
Everybody hope that Royce will be “that guy!” But no one needs to remind you that he is no guaranteed superstar. And being the #1 overall pick also has had some failures. Do these stars(?) from the last 10 years of Twins #1 picks become stars or front line players?
2008- Shooter Hunt
2009- Matthew Bashore
2010- Alex Wimmers
2011- Levi Michael
2011- Travis Harrison
2011- Hudson Boyd
2012- Luke Bard
2013- Kohl Stewart
2014- Nick Gordon
2015- Tyler Jay
2016-2019- TBD

Granted, Buxton and Berrios have been very good. But do you know these #1 overall picks since 2000?

2002- Bryan Buffington
2004- Matt Bush
2006- Luke Hochevar
2008- Tim Beckham
2013- Mark Appel
2014- Brady Aiken

Most of us think, hope, pray- that Royce will be a superstar. But I will submit, just by looking at past percentages of stars, this might be a reach!

#56 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Member
  • 6,531 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:19 PM

As I've told MLR in private conversations, being wrong when you post here does not mean you are wrong next time. Like he said, it's kind of hard to predict a man that old will still be good.

But, as you and I agree, I'd take that chance a lot more than the Twins seem willing to do. Prospects are nice, flags are nicer.


It would be like expecting Jack Morris to rebound at age 36 after his two worst seasons.

Oh, wait. 😎
  • Mike Sixel likes this

#57 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Moderator
  • 22,212 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:17 PM

Hey Brian-
Everybody hope that Royce will be “that guy!” But no one needs to remind you that he is no guaranteed superstar. And being the #1 overall pick also has had some failures. Do these stars(?) from the last 10 years of Twins #1 picks become stars or front line players?
2008- Shooter Hunt
2009- Matthew Bashore
2010- Alex Wimmers
2011- Levi Michael
2011- Travis Harrison
2011- Hudson Boyd
2012- Luke Bard
2013- Kohl Stewart
2014- Nick Gordon
2015- Tyler Jay
2016-2019- TBD

Granted, Buxton and Berrios have been very good. But do you know these #1 overall picks since 2000?

2002- Bryan Buffington
2004- Matt Bush
2006- Luke Hochevar
2008- Tim Beckham
2013- Mark Appel
2014- Brady Aiken

Most of us think, hope, pray- that Royce will be a superstar. But I will submit, just by looking at past percentages of stars, this might be a reach!


Totally understand the frequency of the swing and miss with the MLB draft.

However, in this case. 1st pick overall, Age 20, Top Ten Prospect consensus today. His trade value better be in the upper levels of the stratosphere.

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate

 

I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!


#58 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,566 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 05:06 PM

 

Totally understand the frequency of the swing and miss with the MLB draft.

However, in this case. 1st pick overall, Age 20, Top Ten Prospect consensus today. His trade value better be in the upper levels of the stratosphere.

 

He's not top ten by KLAW or Baseball Prospectus any more.....

  • darin617 likes this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#59 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Touch ‘em all!

  • Moderator
  • 5,268 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 11 July 2019 - 06:37 PM

Please don't put in links that are locked behind a paywall.

it’s worth every penny of that $5 per month.

Trueblood thinks Boyd has sustainability due to an overhaul of his slider, change and four seems to all tunnel together, as well as track record of health. He went so far as to compare Boyd to Sale. If you were a subscriber you might recall Trueblood also predicted Gibson breaking out, so.... TBD I guess.
  • diehardtwinsfan likes this

#60 Diesel

Diesel

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 294 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:04 PM

I'd rather have Stroman, Madbum, or Syndergaard/Wheeler. Royce Lewis seems like too much. Seems like a 2000s Twins pickup