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Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene for............

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#21 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 08:50 AM

Boyd is having a good year but I doubt GMs would consider today's Boyd anywhere near a comparable pitcher to Verlander when he was traded. Verlander is exactly the type of player that can take a team to the next level and and make a deep playoff run. Boyd has nowhere near proven he can be that guy.


The big difference is half a year control versus three and a half. No one thinks Boyd has the cache of Verlander.

I mean, you'd control Boyd for almost as long as a rookie. If he's even a number three, that's a very valuable player.
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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:05 AM

Verlander didn't cost more. The headliner was the Astros' #3 prospect, who had a 54/84 ranking on BA/BP top 100, respectively. He wasn't even on the MLB.com list that year.


Thanks for the correction.

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#23 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:18 AM

 

Boyd is having a good year but I doubt GMs would consider today's Boyd anywhere near a comparable pitcher to Verlander when he was traded. Verlander is exactly the type of player that can take a team to the next level and and make a deep playoff run.Boyd has nowhere near proven he can be that guy. 

I think it depends on whether or not they think that what Boyd is doing is sustainable. He's young enough that this could be his break out season. It's certainly worth the gamble if I'm MN. It's not like he was bad last year, and we've only got Berrios and Perez in the rotation for sure next season. 


#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:26 AM

 

Thanks for the correction.

No worries, the deal is still likely a little bit light because of the control of Boyd/Greene.

 

Which is why I'm not crazy about packaging two players like that, particularly a reliever. Sure, you get a lot of control over Greene, but does anyone really want to pay that much for control over a reliever? I really struggle with the idea of paying that much for a 30 year old reliever who could fall to pieces at pretty much any moment. Look at Addison Reed. He was a match (or slightly better) than Greene and a year or two younger when he came to Minnesota. The dude straight up fell to pieces and will likely be out of baseball permanently.

 

Starters carry a similar risk but they're so much harder to acquire or develop that you kinda have to take on that risk from time to time... but I don't feel the same need with relievers. If you need a reliever, go get a rental or maybe a guy with 1.5 years of control. Don't pay through the nose for 2+ years of control because there's a very good chance that control won't be something you actually want in year two or three.


#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:33 AM

 

I think it depends on whether or not they think that what Boyd is doing is sustainable. He's young enough that this could be his break out season. It's certainly worth the gamble if I'm MN. It's not like he was bad last year, and we've only got Berrios and Perez in the rotation for sure next season. 

 

I can't read that BP link that was provided earlier. Can anyone paraphrase why they think what he is doing is or is not sustainable? From the things I see, these early season results look like an outlier, but I'm always open to analytically persuasive arguments.


#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:35 AM

BTW, I'm not arguing to acquire them or not, I have no idea if Boyd is actually good or not....
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#27 Vanimal46

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:36 AM

Not sure I’m a big fan of Boyd, he kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t see much reason why he improved. He’s still only throwing 91-92 MPH and still doesn’t really have much of an off speed pitch. He feels like a soon to dissipate anomaly to me.


Can't say I'm advocating trading for Boyd either. Though I will say Wes Johnson has been able to add 2+ MPH on essentially every pitcher in the organization. I've got to imagine he will do the same for Boyd. A lefty that throws 93-94 is pretty tempting.
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#28 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:37 AM

We talk a lot about trading for a reliever and we absolutely should. I'm guessing we will only be able to get one at most because there are so many other contenders looking for relief help. I also agree that one is not enough.

 

This may be the wrong thread but does anyone else think that some combination of Thorpe, Smeltzer and/or Stewart in the bullpen for the rest of the year would be a better play than Mejia, Morin and either Magill or Duffy? Adds pitchers who can go multiple innings, adds the second left hander, but may stunt their growth as starters. I see short term gain though. 


#29 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:49 AM

 

I have no idea where the market is but my guess is that this would be a severe overpay by the Twins. 

 

Royce Lewis was the first pick overall and he is only 20 years old, plus he's a consensus Top 10 overall prospect. 

 

Nobody should let a so-so year at High A while being 20 years old taint his value to this degree.  

 

Royce Lewis by himself better be an extreme overpay. If he isn't an overpay by himself, there is no reason to pay attention to the MLB draft anymore. This is what a 1st pick overall is worth at age 20?

 

If you offer Royce Lewis by himself... the Tigers say yes in less than a second, they don't wait for a better offer to come along. 

If I am going to trade Royce Lewis, then I want the very best pitcher available that is under team control if I am trading him. Is that Boyd? I'm not sure it is, this looks like a career year from him.But I think if you are willing to let go of Royce Lewis, it has to be for the very best pitcher you can get and if that takes adding someone to get it done, then so be it. Don't waste the guy getting a #3 starter. 

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:58 AM

If I am going to trade Royce Lewis, then I want the very best pitcher available that is under team control if I am trading him. Is that Boyd? I'm not sure it is, this looks like a career year from him. But I think if you are willing to let go of Royce Lewis, it has to be for the very best pitcher you can get and if that takes adding someone to get it done, then so be it. Don't waste the guy getting a #3 starter.


I'm not sure there is a better starter that isn't a rental available. Which really speaks to the value of pitching.

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#31 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:08 AM

You might be right but I would be on the phone hot and heavy to get into the Mets stable of arms. 

 

Syndergaard is who I would target. I would trade one of Lewis or Kiriloff + 1 other guy. Or, heck, give us Zack Wheeler also and you add another 2 good prospects. These are the types they should target. Power arms. Not this crafty lefty 90-91 mph stuff. Bring in one or both of those studs and lets roll. 

 

Not against going after Wheeler as a rental either. I like both of these guys WAY more than Bumgartner, the cat from Detroit, or the Toronto Blue Jay guy.

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#32 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:21 AM

I like the control Boyd and Greene offer. Pay up for these two.

If they are truly available the winner of this deal will overpay. Every contender can use a good starter and reliever and would be willing to make a reasonable offer.

The team making the deal will have to overpay.

There are two ways teams will overpay as the deadline approaches. They will take on large contracts or pay up in prospects. Boyd and Greene don’t have large contracts so it is going to take prospects.

If we get to August 1st and the Twins haven’t overpaid to get pitching they will not have done enough.
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#33 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:24 AM

I would rather have the combo of Stroman and Giles.

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#34 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:28 AM

But Samardzija had a track record of quality results


Not really much of a track record. Samardzija was in his 3rd season as a SP. ERA+ figures of 107 and 89 before the half season of 134 that got him traded. Boyd was at 85 and 101 before this season's 123.

I don't know much about Boyd's stuff, but he is a lefty starter with 11.9 K/9 and leading the league with a 7.10 K:BB ratio.
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#35 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:41 AM

 

Not really much of a track record. Samardzija was in his 3rd season as a SP. ERA+ figures of 107 and 89 before the half season of 134 that got him traded. Boyd was at 85 and 101 before this season's 123.

I don't know much about Boyd's stuff, but he is a lefty starter with 11.9 K/9 and leading the league with a 7.10 K:BB ratio.

 

I like the strikeouts, that's for sure. I also like how controllable he is. Maybe Wes Johnson can add some MPH (if actually needed) as Van suggested, but my biggest concern would be that he's throwing FB/slider 90% of the time. That looks like his biggest change from past years when he threw more off speed stuff; which unfortunately were not good pitches.

 

It seems to me pitchers who only throw two pitches and have some success quickly find the league catching up to them; usually eventually everyone just sits on the more hittable fastball.


#36 Thrylos

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:41 AM

Boyd is at best at Berrios/Odorizzi level.The Twins need more.Plus Boyd's season seems to be a career season very similar to the one Phil Hughes had and got the extension.Both driven by uncharacteristically low BB/9.Like Hughes's not sure that Boyd's success will be sustainable.

 

Shane Greene's 1.09 ERA and 0.879 WHIP are a mirage caused by his .181 BABIP and 86.1 LOB%.His FIP is 3.72 and xFIP 3.98.

 

I'd pass on both and there is no way in hay I would trade Lewis or Rooker in the division.Maybe for Giolito + Colome, but still....

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#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:48 AM

Boyd is at best at Berrios/Odorizzi level. The Twins need more. Plus Boyd's season seems to be a career season very similar to the one Phil Hughes had and got the extension. Both driven by uncharacteristically low BB/9. Like Hughes's not sure that Boyd's success will be sustainable.

Shane Greene's 1.09 ERA and 0.879 WHIP are a mirage caused by his .181 BABIP and 86.1 LOB%. His FIP is 3.72 and xFIP 3.98.

I'd pass on both and there is no way in hay I would trade Lewis or Rooker in the division. Maybe for Giolito + Colome, but still....


Maybe Giolito? Not even sure how to respond to that.

Also, I think your expectations of what is available are unrealistic. What ace it's out there, realistically?

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#38 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:11 AM

 

Maybe Giolito? Not even sure how to respond to that.

Also, I think your expectations of what is available are unrealistic. What ace it's out there, realistically?

 

There might not be any, but if that's what the team needs, why commit so many resources to a guy who doesn't come close to fitting the bill? I don't want to trade for a starter just to get one.

 

I think much less of Boyd than others do, so I understand those others would go big for him. But I think this team can get another Pineda/Perez level starter much more cheaply than Boyd, and I really don't care about how much control a guy of his stature has left as I'd probably still be looking to upgrade from him sooner rather than later, and if for all intents and purposes he's done throwing off speed stuff, I'd be looking to move him to the pen as soon as this off season.

 

I'd like to look at Anthony DeScalfani. His velocity is increasing, he's got a good mix of pitches and he's got a year and a half of control left. Of non-elite pitchers, he'd be the kind of guy who'd interest me, and he's probably got much less helium. And if we're doing the starter/reliever combo, the Reds have four relievers I'd very much like to get my hands on.


#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:19 AM

There might not be any, but if that's what the team needs, why commit so many resources to a guy who doesn't come close to fitting the bill? I don't want to trade for a starter just to get one.

I think much less of Boyd than others do, so I understand those folks would go big for him. But I think this team can get another Pineda/Perez level starter much more cheaply than Boyd, and I really don't care about how much control a guy of his stature has left as I'd probably still be looking to upgrade from him sooner rather than later, and if for all intents and purposes he's done throwing off speed stuff, I'd be looking to move him to the pen as soon as this off season.

I'd like to look at Anthony DeScalfani. His velocity is increasing, he's got a good mix of pitches and he's got a year and a half of control left. Of non-elite pitchers, he'd be the kind of guy who'd interest me, and he's probably got much less helium.


Sure, but none of that was in his post, or how I responded. He would not trade Lewis for Giolito? He thinks they should only take a trade for an ace,I think that's his point.

I was pretty clear, I have no idea what Boyd is going ahead....

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#40 Thrylos

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:20 AM

 

Maybe Giolito? Not even sure how to respond to that.

Also, I think your expectations of what is available are unrealistic. What ace it's out there, realistically?

 

Zach Wheeler.Better K% and FIP, xFIP than Berrios even in a very dysfunctional environment.Get him out of the Mets mess and you will see what he will do. He is a rental and will not cost that much either.That's the cheap way out

 

I'd really go after German Marquez and get the Rockies to add on Wade Davis (0.79 ERA away from Coors vs 9.20 there) and Brian Shaw (2.86 ERA away 5.76 ERA home).Marquez is arbitration eligible first time next season, and the other 2 are under contract for 2020 + 1 option.Davis is owed ~$25M total and Shaw ~$15M.That will save the Rockies a ton of cash over the next few seasons, so might cost less than what one might think.Regardless, I'd trade Lewis plus Kirilloff (*) for Marquez, if the Rockies are willing to eat some of the others' $.The Twins need him more and he is just 24.

 

Really need to look for players who are seemingly underperforming in their current situations, but have a high likelihood of improvement if you get them out of there.

 

(*) I'd rather part with Kirilloff than Rooker btw.Other than Rooker, the Twins do not have much RH power in the system, and with Kepler's extension, Larnach performing solidly and Blackenhorn's, Cabbage, and Diaz's break though years, there is plenty of LH power in the upper minors for the Twins.

Edited by Thrylos, 11 July 2019 - 11:23 AM.

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