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#1 Number3

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 07:30 AM

I have previously posted that July schedule is pretty smooth except for the 3 games against the Yankees. Well, the upcoming 3 games against the Indians might just be a little bit important as the Twins could wake up Monday morning anywhere from 8.5 to 2.5 games in front of the Indians. I have probably already been corrected on this but I had to post this for the record. Jack Buck's son has already proclaimed that the Indians will catch and pass the Twins so I guess its a done deal but at least make them struggle to do it.

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#2 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 07:43 AM

Well, go ahead and tell Jack Buck’s son that many big names in the Twin Cities media had already proclaimed the Twins division champs, and that Cleveland is now in sell-off mode. :)
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#3 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 07:46 AM

As big as this series looks on paper, there are still three more series with Cleveland later this summer.

Also, hat tip to Twins Daily writers and posters who have been much more willing to wait and see how this plays out.
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#4 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 07:53 AM

Cleveland’s pitching staff is allowing about 1/3 of a run per game fewer than the Twins. Part of that is defense because team ERAs are nearly identical. Some metrics show the Twins defense as pretty high in the league, but their error rate is one of the worst. That kinda matters. It leads to extra runs and extra outs. Part of it is bullpen. Cleveland is doing a better job stranding inherited runners.

Twins fans have been saying since November that this team needed a top of the line starting pitcher and better relievers. 8 months later that hasn’t changed.
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#5 USAFChief

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 08:02 AM

Cleveland’s pitching staff is allowing about 1/3 of a run per game fewer than the Twins. Part of that is defense because team ERAs are nearly identical. Some metrics show the Twins defense as pretty high in the league, but their error rate is one of the worst. That kinda matters. It leads to extra runs and extra outs. Part of it is bullpen. Cleveland is doing a better job stranding inherited runners.

Twins fans have been saying since November that this team needed a top of the line starting pitcher and better relievers. 8 months later that hasn’t changed.

the Twins are allowing slightly less than 1/4 of a run per game more than Corveland, not 1/3.

4.42 runs per game, vs 4.19.
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#6 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 08:24 AM

the Twins are allowing slightly less than 1/4 of a run per game more than Corveland, not 1/3.

4.42 runs per game, vs 4.19.


Math was never a strong suit.
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#7 Dantes929

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 08:36 AM

 

Cleveland’s pitching staff is allowing about 1/3 of a run per game fewer than the Twins. Part of that is defense because team ERAs are nearly identical. Some metrics show the Twins defense as pretty high in the league, but their error rate is one of the worst. That kinda matters. It leads to extra runs and extra outs. Part of it is bullpen. Cleveland is doing a better job stranding inherited runners.

Twins fans have been saying since November that this team needed a top of the line starting pitcher and better relievers. 8 months later that hasn’t changed.

If its team ERA it really doesn't matter who is allowing runs, inherited or otherwise.Twins are scoring more than a run per game better than the Indians which is why the Twins are 5.5 games ahead. That's not nothing people. I participated in discussions about possible playoffs but it was always with the disclaimer of "first, lets make the playoffs"Anyone who was a fan back in 2006 when the Twins were farther behind much later in the season shouldn't assume anything. Also, if the Twins do win 95 or so and the Indians win more that is not a collapse by the Twins. 

As big as this series looks on paper, there are still three more series with Cleveland later this summer.

Also, hat tip to Twins Daily writers and posters who have been much more willing to wait and see how this plays out.

Thank you for that. Indians are winning at over a 70% clip and its at Cleveland.Then the Twins have a tougher schedule for a while but then it will reverse. Yeah, the Indians could pass the Twins but then the Twins could come back and retake the lead. Fans will start to talk about series as must win and critical. EVERY game is important but there is no must win series in July or August when you have the lead. Every division championship the Twins have had involves several series that fans called must win where the Twins either lost the series or were swept.All that matters are the records at the end and you never know where the other guys are going to end. Indians are hot and the Twins are not. That is unlikely to remain the case.

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#8 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 08:47 AM

If its team ERA it really doesn't matter who is allowing runs, inherited or otherwise. Twins are scoring more than a run per game better than the Indians which is why the Twins are 5.5 games ahead. That's not nothing people. I participated in discussions about possible playoffs but it was always with the disclaimer of "first, lets make the playoffs" Anyone who was a fan back in 2006 when the Twins were farther behind much later in the season shouldn't assume anything. Also, if the Twins do win 95 or so and the Indians win more that is not a collapse by the Twins.

Thank you for that. Indians are winning at over a 70% clip and its at Cleveland. Then the Twins have a tougher schedule for a while but then it will reverse. Yeah, the Indians could pass the Twins but then the Twins could come back and retake the lead. Fans will start to talk about series as must win and critical. EVERY game is important but there is no must win series in July or August when you have the lead. Every division championship the Twins have had involves several series that fans called must win where the Twins either lost the series or were swept. All that matters are the records at the end and you never know where the other guys are going to end. Indians are hot and the Twins are not. That is unlikely to remain the case.

The schedule makes me nervous, but the end of the season should be favorable. Should be. Detroit doesn’t scare me but for some reason the Twins have had trouble putting away KC. If the bats come back to life, it shouldn’t matter.

Correction: looks like the overall record against KC has been good this year, but the games seemed tougher than they should have been.

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco, 10 July 2019 - 08:49 AM.


#9 Number3

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:06 AM

Ben Hogan said that the most important shot in golf is the next one and the most important game in the Twins schedule is Friday's game against the Indians.

A little nostalgia if I may. In the late 1950s I was a 12 year oldtransplant from the DC area, (home of the Washington Senators now you know who).My family had moved to S. Florida. The only baseball on TV back then was the weekend game(s) of the week and I remember watching one between the Senators and Indians with my friend from Cleveland. Not positive, but I am pretty sure that the play by play guy was Jack Buck. Joe wasn't born yet so the results of that game couldn't have had any influence upon him. Twins are in a little better position against the Indians now than those Senators were.

Edited by Number3, 10 July 2019 - 09:08 AM.

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#10 stringer bell

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:33 AM

Cleveland has made up exactly half of their deficit with the Twins since the Twins came to town with an 11 game lead. They are firing on all cylinders right now--good pitching, improved hitting and defense, but we've seen than no one sustains at their best level. 

 

That said, the Indians were playing better ball than the Twins at the All-Star break. I personally think the Twins have more talent and will ride out the season, but the games between the two teams should tell the tale. Winning two of three this weekend will be very important in ultimately winning the division. 

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#11 Craig Arko

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:44 AM

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#12 bighat

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:51 AM

No reason to pretend this weekend's tilt isn't huge. This is why we watch baseball.

 

Yeah this one means something, and that's OK. It's a "statement" series. Cleveland fans and players are going to be super pumped up for this series coming off their All-Star showcase. The Twins can be beat, the Indians smell blood. It's as big as any series either team has had all season.

 

I think if the Twins are at full strength and they are playing the A Team out there, they can take 2 of 3.

 

 


#13 Rosterman

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 10:03 AM

Schedules are pretty much the same for both teams, with the Twins having some tougher games in July and Cleveland in August. All depends how you bust out your division competition, especially the weaker three in Chicago, Detroit and Kansas City. Of course, the remaining games against the Indians are the ones to watch. When the Twins had an 11 game lead, you paid less attention as they could lose ALL the games with the Indians and still be in control. Suddenly it looks...iffy. 

 

But I do hope the Twins will be a tad more relaxed than pushing to win. They seem toplay best when they are enjoying the game and doing the fundamentals, rather than trying to win. Coming out of the gate (first inning) with runs and having shut down pitching helps. They do need pitching help, and I still question the bullpen usage at times, or the ability of the manager to pull piutchers sooner rather than later.

 

But that is baseball.

 

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#14 mickeymental

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:01 AM

if only the twins would take my suggestion: schedule the washington generals for 162 games a years. or an american legion team.


#15 yarnivek1972

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:08 AM

It will be interesting to see who goes down for Rosario. One would presume Cave, but the Twins may prefer to have a “real” reserve OFer until Rosario gets his legs back.

The lineups will also be telling. What does Baldelli feel is his “A” lineup right now? Will he continue to slot Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza even THIS weekend or will the “regulars” play all 3? All 3 Indian starters are RHP.

#16 Craig Arko

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:14 AM

It will be interesting to see who goes down for Rosario. One would presume Cave, but the Twins may prefer to have a “real” reserve OFer until Rosario gets his legs back.
The lineups will also be telling. What does Baldelli feel is his “A” lineup right now? Will he continue to slot Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza even THIS weekend or will the “regulars” play all 3? All 3 Indian starters are RHP.


Cron may still be on the IL; probably Gonzalez plays first.
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#17 stringer bell

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:25 AM

 

It will be interesting to see who goes down for Rosario. One would presume Cave, but the Twins may prefer to have a “real” reserve OFer until Rosario gets his legs back.

The lineups will also be telling. What does Baldelli feel is his “A” lineup right now? Will he continue to slot Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza even THIS weekend or will the “regulars” play all 3? All 3 Indian starters are RHP.

As Craig said, Cron is still on the IL. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sanó and/or Buxton getting a day off with three tough right handers going for Cleveland.

 

If both Rosario and Kepler are "full go", Cave definitely should be the one to go for Eddie.


#18 ashbury

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:35 AM

the Twins are allowing slightly less than 1/4 of a run per game more than Corveland, not 1/3.

4.42 runs per game, vs 4.19.

Is Corveland even still in the league?

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#19 spanman2

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:45 AM

Should be a great 2nd half race.We need to take 2 of 3 in this upcoming series to get that good vibe feeling back in the air.Just like the Twins were not going to continue their winning % pace when they were 11 or so up on Cleveland the Indians are not going to continue on their recent winning % track.I believe we have 12 left against Cleveland the rest of the way.Lets go 7-5 play around .575-.600 ball the rest of the way and we should be just fine to win the divsion.Stay healthy add 2-3 arms and lets dance in October baby!!!

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#20 KFEY93

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:51 AM

 

As Craig said, Cron is still on the IL. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sanó and/or Buxton getting a day off with three tough right handers going for Cleveland.

 

If both Rosario and Kepler are "full go", Cave definitely should be the one to go for Eddie.

Buxton is starting all 3 games. Book it

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