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Twins looking at Giles and Yates

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#61 Doctor Wu

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 08:48 AM

Whatever they decide to do, the front office should make the trade soon ... as in this week or next week. Don't wait until the last few days of the month to do something ... and then you will most likely lose any chance of getting what the team really needs. Please please please ... don't procrastinate and try to get a "bargain." Get what you need, even if it costs a few good prospects.

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#62 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 09:04 AM

 

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.

 

Pressly is one of the best relievers in baseball FYI. Twins could really use him right now. I was not in favor of that trade. 

 

And yes, if the Twins were offered a top 5 in that trade with Houston, and in a position where they probably weren't going to compete for quite a few years, I'm pretty sure they would have dumped Gibson as well. Maybe not, but it would be seriously considered I'd say. 

 

 

 

 


#63 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 09:12 AM

 

I was not trying to compete with MLBTR as far as linking to LEN3's piece where they got their info.My issue was linking to the MLBTR post, instead of the original post (LEN3's) that has more information.

 

And, yes, they are an aggregator of other people's news, other than their chats.

 

But the MLBTR post does have additional info.It has a breakdown of the entire Twins bullpen, as well as going far more in depth on the potential targets (LEN3 literally provided zero stats for any players not already in the Twins system).

 

An aggregator is someone who simply collects and posts links in a single post--while MLBTR does some of that from time to time, they also provide a lot of original content that often builds in significant ways on the original content they are piggybacking.I would deem it much more fair to label MLBTR an Analyzer, rather than an Aggregtor.

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#64 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 09:40 AM

 

I’m interested to know how you think pitching WAR works. Because keeping runs off the board more or less corresponds to greater WAR.

 

Well watching a decade of Twins playoff baseball has me convinced that come September, any ball the other team puts in play is going to find a hole. 

 

So I'd rather not leave it to chance, stick pitchers in there who will strike the batters out instead. Strikeouts > groundballs.

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#65 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 09:45 AM

June trades just aren't that frequent. I've got an article half written looking at this. Two to six a year, either involving players that aren't good, or moving massive contracts. The Twins don't need the former, and probably won't ever do the latter. I think it's another week or two.....

There are good reasons for teams on both sides to wait.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#66 twins1095

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 09:56 AM

 

Best post on here in terms of grounding the argument.  

 

Would you give up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball for Kyle Gibson?If not, what would you give up in our system for another Kyle Gibson level pitcher?Or Stroman + what would pry a top 10 prospect from your team (although Lewis and Kirillof will likely drop in terms of next years rankings). 

 

Would Stroman + Giles be worth a top 10 prospect + to you?

 

Looking at past deals, most ace pitchers i.e. Sherzer, Santana, Grienke, Gerritt Cole, Justin Verlander etc.did not command more than 1 top 50-70 guy + prospects outside the top 100.  

 

Giving a top 10-20 prospect from Stroman is a ludicrous overpay.

 

 

Update Baseball Prospectus just came out with a mid-season prospect list -

 

  • Lewis is at #16
  • Graterol is at #40
  • Kirillof is at #43*

Should note that pre-2019 Kirillof was #9 on MLB.com, #15 on BA, and #39 on Baseball Prospectus so that ranking may not be reflective of consensus opinion.  

 

Kirillof, after a slow may, would actually be 12th in OPS in his league and has been trending upwards since May with an injury stint in between.He's likely closer to top 20 than #40 if you combined rankings.  

 

Lewis was #5, #8, and #9 by MLB, BS, and BA respectively pre-2019.

 

Graterol was #33, #55. and #68 by BS, BA, and MLB respectively.

 

The 3 have dropped slightly due to injury issues and some level of mild struggles. Still think it's an overpay.But again just to ground the argumentthat's where those guys are pegged to the rest of the leagues prospects.

 

 

 

Edited by twins1095, 09 July 2019 - 10:10 AM.

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#67 jorgenswest

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 01:10 PM

It is so difficult to predict future pitching performance based on a half season.

We can certainly look backwards with WAR and FIP and use that data to describe which pitcher performed better in the first half.

I hope the Twins are not using FIP or WHIP or ERA or WAR as any part of their analysis.

How do they account for Stroman having a 2018 xFIP better than his 2019 when his 2018 season won’t help anyone reach the playoffs?

The Twins scouts and analytics department need to get this right and fangraphs isn’t going to help.
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#68 twins1095

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:20 PM

 

It is so difficult to predict future pitching performance based on a half season.

We can certainly look backwards with WAR and FIP and use that data to describe which pitcher performed better in the first half.

I hope the Twins are not using FIP or WHIP or ERA or WAR as any part of their analysis.

How do they account for Stroman having a 2018 xFIP better than his 2019 when his 2018 season won’t help anyone reach the playoffs?

The Twins scouts and analytics department need to get this right and fangraphs isn’t going to help.

 

I mean even using Stroman's previous year FIP and xFIP number's...he's still essentially what Kyle Gibson was last year or Martin Perez has been this year. I guess to be fair he's a tick better than that, but not by much.It's a fair comparison to peg him to those guys in terms of stuff and level.  

 

Does that mean he's a bad player?No. Would acquiring Stroman make the Twins a better team for the rest of the season?Yes.Would acquring him give us a meaningfully better post-season short-rotation?I'm not convinced.

 

All those numbers mean is that you're acquiring a certain type of player and you have to think about what'd you'd be willing to give up.

 

If you think Stroman is an ace or even a good #2 on a good pitching staff you're seeing things. He's pretty similar to what Gibson has developed into...a solid #3 or below average #2.He would definitely make the team better, but not in a way I'm willing to give up crown jewel assets for.  

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#69 spycake

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 02:46 PM

Well watching a decade of Twins playoff baseball has me convinced that come September, any ball the other team puts in play is going to find a hole.

So I'd rather not leave it to chance, stick pitchers in there who will strike the batters out instead. Strikeouts > groundballs.


I don't think the Twins playoff issues were related to a lack of pitcher strikeouts. Our offense often disappeared, we gave up some inopportune dingers, etc.

#70 prouster

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:04 PM

Actually, in the case of fWAR, it corresponds to someone's opinion as to how many runs should or shouldn't have been kept off the board.

fWAR is calculated using FIP (with infield flies!) rather than actual runs allowed.

https://library.fang...g-war-pitchers/

Whether that's useful in evaluating pitchers is open to debate.


I agree that fWAR has its built-in biases, but I wouldn’t go so far to say FIP is just someone’s opinion.

Let’s go with bWAR if that’s more suitable.

#71 prouster

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:11 PM

Well watching a decade of Twins playoff baseball has me convinced that come September, any ball the other team puts in play is going to find a hole.

So I'd rather not leave it to chance, stick pitchers in there who will strike the batters out instead. Strikeouts > groundballs.


Which pitcher is this? Thor (2.42 playoff ERA)? Kershaw (4.32 playoff ERA)? Josh Tomlin (3.92 playoff ERA)?

I think there’s no way to say who will step up and who will choke in the playoffs. It’s best to get someone with a consistent track record of preventing runs. WAR gives us a pretty good idea of who those guys are.
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#72 dbminn

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:18 PM

 

The Twins scouts and analytics department need to get this right and fangraphs isn’t going to help.

 

You're right. A former FanGraphs analyst will be helping the Blue Jays pick out prospects they want to get in the trade. Carson Cistulli is in charge of putting together the player analytics for their scouting department. He was hired away last year.

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#73 Sconnie

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:59 PM

It is so difficult to predict future pitching performance based on a half season.

We can certainly look backwards with WAR and FIP and use that data to describe which pitcher performed better in the first half.

I hope the Twins are not using FIP or WHIP or ERA or WAR as any part of their analysis.

How do they account for Stroman having a 2018 xFIP better than his 2019 when his 2018 season won’t help anyone reach the playoffs?

The Twins scouts and analytics department need to get this right and fangraphs isn’t going to help.

agreed, but if we’re not going to use the tools available to us to debate a subject, every forum topic would just be a game thread. There wouldn’t need to be a forum at all, just one long game thread on wild tangent after wild tangent.
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#74 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 07:25 AM

It is so difficult to predict future pitching performance based on a half season.

We can certainly look backwards with WAR and FIP and use that data to describe which pitcher performed better in the first half.

I hope the Twins are not using FIP or WHIP or ERA or WAR as any part of their analysis.

How do they account for Stroman having a 2018 xFIP better than his 2019 when his 2018 season won’t help anyone reach the playoffs?

The Twins scouts and analytics department need to get this right and fangraphs isn’t going to help.

Which is why I try not to attach myself to specific names.

What I want the front office to do is target the player they see the most upside in and go get that player.

Now, obviously, that probably means they're not going to chase a 6.00 ERA journeyman but that also means I'm okay with them not chasing the splashiest name in baseball (but it also may mean they need to get that splashy name).

I care about results, not the name on a jersey. And if I don't have faith in the front office knowing more about baseball than me and having more information at their fingertips to make this kind of decision, they shouldn't have the job they have.
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