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Twins looking at Giles and Yates

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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 06:12 PM

 

Both are strong prospects, but neither are hitting great. My point is simply that Toronto would be terrible at negotiating if they allowed the Twins to value both of them as top ten prospects in negotiations considering both players current struggles.

Ah, if you're talking about preseason rankings versus in-season struggles that may have changed their rankings, I completely misunderstood your point. 

 

Yes, both have almost certainly dropped down lists due to recent performance.

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#42 gunnarthor

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 06:36 PM

 

Wow. I doubt it. Look at past trades to see what kind of guys this would take. One of our top 3-10 guys and 2 guys in that 10-20 range would do it. 

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.


#43 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 06:46 PM

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.


Stroman is not an ace.
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#44 Thrylos

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 06:59 PM

 

Stroman is not an ace.

 

The best comparable to Stroman is Archer.Not.quite.an.ace.

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#45 Danchat

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 07:37 PM

 

The best comparable to Stroman is Archer.Not.quite.an.ace.

Pre-2019 Archer, sure. But wow, he's had a awful season with a rough 5.49 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and even worse 5.91 FIP. But your description is fitting for Stroman.

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#46 Sconnie

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 07:41 PM

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.


“1.5 years of an ace” and then comparing Stroman to Gibson... Gibson is no “ace” either.

Gibson is a good comp. 2019, Perez is a better comp with recency bias. Clearly I’d take Stroman over either Gibson or Perez. Stroman would absolutely bolster the middle of the Twins rotation, not compete w/ Berrios for #1, let alone “ace” (definition of ace TBD).

Stroman
K% 18.6
Whip 1.26
FIP 3.81

Berrios
K% 21.6
Whip 1.11
FIP 3.83

Odorizzi
K% 26.8
Whip 1.12
FIP 3.59

Gibson
K% 23.6
Whip 1.26
FIP 4.05

Perez
K% 20.7
Whip 1.37
FIP 3.7

Giles would clearly be the best reliever on the team. Does his being a bit notorious reduce the price?

Giles
K% 43.4
Whip 1.0
FIP 1.49

Rogers
K% 31.9
Whip .98
FIP 2.77

Funny enough, Pressly would not be a clear cut upgrade over Rogers (but dang it’d be great to get him back, wouldn’t it?

Pressly
K% 31.3
Whip .78
FIP 2.97

I lost track of where I was going with this... oh yeah, Graterol is a heck of a prospect. Him plus a couple B/C prospects should get it done huh?

#47 David HK

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 07:43 PM

I think we've pretty much milked the cow dry as far as looking for in-house prospects to step up in relief roles. And Blake Parker is not the saviour we need, being the only piece added in the offseason.

 

Kimbrel had a bit of a rocky start, but that's to be expected after such a long layoff- now he's starting to look like the real deal. But I'm liking me some Will Smith. He could have a 2nd-half audition for a contract extension, and SF has major offensive woes, so they'd be looking for hitters, of which we have a surplus.

 

Go get him, Falvine. And maybe MadBum, too, for a rental.


#48 gunnarthor

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 09:01 PM

 

I lost track of where I was going with this... oh yeah, Graterol is a heck of a prospect. Him plus a couple B/C prospects should get it done huh?

Graterol is injured, out indefinitely. That's usually not good for trade value.

 

And the point remains, last year we would have screamed if we had traded Gibby/Pressly for Houston's #5, 10, 15 prospects. It would have been a bad trade for us. It's unlikely that Toronto would trade the superior package of Stroman/Giles for the Twins 5, 10, 15 prospects now, as suggested above.

Edited by gunnarthor, 08 July 2019 - 09:08 PM.

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#49 gunnarthor

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 09:06 PM

 

 

Stroman is not an ace.

Semantics. He's on pace for another 4-5ish WAR season, would be our best pitcher (although I'll listen on arguments on Berrios) and I'd trust him a lot more in the post-season than I'd trust Odorizzi. If you don't want to call him an ace, fine. Doesn't matter. He'd be a great fit.

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#50 darin617

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 09:32 PM

Is this like when you gave your parents crazy ideas for Christmas and ended up getting socks & underwear?


#51 DocBauer

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 09:36 PM

NOT throwing cold water on potential moves, or this FO. I'm only offering up a couple things to consider.

1] From day ONE this FO has talked about building a system from the ground up, players, coaches, way of doing things, etc, to create a sustainable winning team/system.

They have also clearly stated they would make moves when the window of opportunity was available.

2] The FO's opinions/analytics thus far, have looked pretty smart. Witness Cron, Schoop, Pineda and Perez as examples. We might even toss Odorizzi in for this scenario.

Like it or not, bank it or not, they were actually proven pretty smart to not dive too deep in to the FA pool of RP available off season. Luck or the caveat it may be too early to say is debatable.

3] This FO has shown a willingness at times to eat contract dollars for a higher return.

My point is really rather direct. It's easy to toss out names and scenarios for a trade. But I don't believe this FO will make a trade for someone just to make a trade. If you really believe a change of scenery and Wes Johnson will help make a difference for Bumgarner or Greinke, GREAT! But does the FO see enough value? (I'm just using a couple examples here).

They may have their own version of Pressly this season to acquire, and it may not be a name we all know and jump at. Just how many frontline SP are actually available? What is their cost, if made so? Maybe they look at our rotation, and building depth with Smeltzer and Thorpe and feel the pen is the way to go since there isn't anyone available to make a real difference. Maybe they feel a guy like Kennedy is really smart for a small trade if they eat some contract and then bring in a solid pro like Watson. What if one of the BP arms we so easily dismiss from reports here on TD is a guy they really think they can work with?

I firmly believe this FO WILL make 1-3 additions. The window of opportunity is there and the depth in the system is there. I'm just saying the numbers and names may not be as easy to speculate as we all seem to think.
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#52 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 11:35 PM

Semantics. He's on pace for another 4-5ish WAR season, would be our best pitcher (although I'll listen on arguments on Berrios) and I'd trust him a lot more in the post-season than I'd trust Odorizzi. If you don't want to call him an ace, fine. Doesn't matter. He'd be a great fit.


I’d have some interest in Stroman, but come playoff time I don’t care about WAR, I care about keeping runs off the board, and I’m not going to trust a pitcher to do that in the post season against the Yankees and Astros if he can’t miss bats.
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#53 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:38 AM

Semantics. He's on pace for another 4-5ish WAR season, would be our best pitcher (although I'll listen on arguments on Berrios) and I'd trust him a lot more in the post-season than I'd trust Odorizzi. If you don't want to call him an ace, fine. Doesn't matter. He'd be a great fit.


He'd be a wonderful fit. I'd love them to get Stroman, as much for 2020 as this year. But let's not forget he's also got a few sub 2 WAR seasons mixed in as well, including 0.2 last year.
When we're discussing what it would take to acquire him, it's not just "semantics" to call him an ace, he's not an ace, and paying ace price would be a pretty big overpay, IMO.
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#54 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 05:42 AM

 

Except in salary dump situations, which this isn't, what trades would you think would be comparable?

 

1.5 years of an ace and 1.5 years of an elite closer. Both instantly become our best starting pitcher and best bullpen arm. And you think a backend top 100 guy and two throw-ins would be enough? I'd love it if that were true but I doubt it. Chris Archer brought back a ransom. Stroman is arguably a better pitcher than Archer was although not years of control favored Archer a bit. The Astros traded Ken Giles, David Paulino and a prospect for Roberto Osuna who was at the time suspended for DV.

 

Last year, we traded Pressly for the Astros 10th and 15th best prospects. Do you think the Twins would have kicked in Gibson for someone like Cionel Perez, their #5 prospect? Gibby and Pressly had the same years of control as Giles/Stroman. That seems like a bad trade for the Twins and Storman/Giles are a lot better than Gibby/Pressly were.

 

Stroman isn't an ace... that's probably my biggest beef here. His peripherals scream regression for what that's worth... he does get an elite GB rate, which certainly helps things, but this isn't a high K guy. Personally, I think there are better starting options than Stroman. I'm not against getting him, but I'm not sure I'd fork out a huge prospect haul for him. If I'm going to do that, I'd go after Boyd or Grienke…. maybe even Thor who is having a down year. 

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#55 GCTF

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 07:20 AM

 

Is this like when you gave your parents crazy ideas for Christmas and ended up getting socks & underwear?

We should be so lucky. Getting Phil Nevin was more like getting used crusty underwear.

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#56 prouster

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 07:37 AM

come playoff time I don’t care about WAR, I care about keeping runs off the board.


I’m interested to know how you think pitching WAR works. Because keeping runs off the board more or less corresponds to greater WAR.

#57 USAFChief

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 07:50 AM

 

I’m interested to know how you think pitching WAR works. Because keeping runs off the board more or less corresponds to greater WAR.

Actually, in the case of fWAR, it corresponds to someone's opinion as to how many runs should or shouldn't have been kept off the board.

 

fWAR is calculated using FIP (with infield flies!) rather than actual runs allowed.

 

https://library.fang...g-war-pitchers/

 

Whether that's useful in evaluating pitchers is open to debate. 

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#58 twins1095

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 07:59 AM

 

“1.5 years of an ace” and then comparing Stroman to Gibson... Gibson is no “ace” either.

Gibson is a good comp. 2019, Perez is a better comp with recency bias. Clearly I’d take Stroman over either Gibson or Perez. Stroman would absolutely bolster the middle of the Twins rotation, not compete w/ Berrios for #1, let alone “ace” (definition of ace TBD).

Stroman
K% 18.6
Whip 1.26
FIP 3.81

Berrios
K% 21.6
Whip 1.11
FIP 3.83

Odorizzi
K% 26.8
Whip 1.12
FIP 3.59

Gibson
K% 23.6
Whip 1.26
FIP 4.05

Perez
K% 20.7
Whip 1.37
FIP 3.7

Giles would clearly be the best reliever on the team. Does his being a bit notorious reduce the price?

Giles
K% 43.4
Whip 1.0
FIP 1.49

Rogers
K% 31.9
Whip .98
FIP 2.77

Funny enough, Pressly would not be a clear cut upgrade over Rogers (but dang it’d be great to get him back, wouldn’t it?

Pressly
K% 31.3
Whip .78
FIP 2.97

I lost track of where I was going with this... oh yeah, Graterol is a heck of a prospect. Him plus a couple B/C prospects should get it done huh?

 

Best post on here in terms of grounding the argument.  

 

Would you give up a top 10 prospect in all of baseball for Kyle Gibson?If not, what would you give up in our system for another Kyle Gibson level pitcher?Or Stroman + what would pry a top 10 prospect from your team (although Lewis and Kirillof will likely drop in terms of next years rankings). 

 

Would Stroman + Giles be worth a top 10 prospect + to you?

 

Looking at past deals, most ace pitchers i.e. Sherzer, Santana, Grienke, Gerritt Cole, Justin Verlander etc.did not command more than 1 top 50-70 guy + prospects outside the top 100.  

 

Giving a top 10-20 prospect from Stroman is a ludicrous overpay.

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#59 Carole Keller

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 08:00 AM

We should be so lucky. Getting Phil Nevin was more like getting used crusty underwear.


Okay, ish.

But I lol’d just the same.
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#60 USAFChief

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 08:03 AM

 

We should be so lucky. Getting Phil Nevin was more like getting used crusty underwear.

med_gallery_2660_243_206885.jpg

 

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