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Twins looking at Giles and Yates

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#21 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 12:23 PM

I'm with you all. They literally need a starter and 1 or 2 relievers. Get busy already. What is the waiting for?

 

IMO, it has to do with prospect hoarding and the same cheap BS we've seen for years with this club. This the best chance they've had since 2010. Add now, quit waiting around. 

 

If this FO sits on its hands or brings in marginal help and the team doesn't make the playoffs or goes one and done, good luck selling tickets going forward. This fanbase deserves some investment from their front office/ownership.

Edited by Battle ur tail off, 08 July 2019 - 12:24 PM.

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#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 12:27 PM

 

I'd concur on Yates, but there are relievers available today, if you're willing to meet what will be the eventual price. Giles, for example, could be had today. 

 

Waiting serves no purpose IMO, other than to invite other teams into the bidding as options dry up.

 

Surely the oft discussed Ian Kennedy and his unattractive contract should be available any time. I'd think lower tier guys (many of whom I personally like) such as Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias or guys who could implode and tank their trade value at any moment like Mychal Givens or whatever dreck Miami will be trying to shovel out the door might be available at a slight overpay. If the big names are available now though, I'd be surprised, only because I'd think we'd have seen more of a history of these guys going earlier if that was the prerogative of clubs.

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#23 Thrylos

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 01:04 PM

 

Surely the oft discussed Ian Kennedy and his unattractive contract should be available any time.

 

Kennedy is owed about $25M roughly and is under contact for one more season.If the Royals eat about $18M of that I would not mind parting with a B prospect to get him.They still need another arm better than him in the pen.He can be the RH setup guy complimenting Rogers.They need a closer on top.

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#24 Sconnie

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 01:33 PM

 

Apparently the Twins and Yankees have looked in on packaging Giles and Stroman. I'd be very OK with it, if the price is right. One of the Twittereres suggested Graterol....Straight up? maybe...

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#25 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 01:58 PM

 

MLB Trade Rumors is an aggregator.  Here is a link the original material from LEN3 @ the Strib that let to that post, to give credit where credit is due:

 

http://www.startribu...tion/512308752/

 

Also LEN3's piece says that there were scouts from Diamondbacks, Padres, Blue Jays and Pirates in Rochester, which includes a couple more possibilities that what the MLB Traderumors poster realized and conveyed.

 

LEN3 wrote:

 

Each team has pitchers the Twins could be interested in dealing for before the July 31 trade deadline. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Kirby Yates (Padres), Ken Giles (Blue Jays), the sore pectoral-muscled Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays) and Felipe Vasquez (Pirates) could be available over the next few weeks. The Twins have definitely checked on Yates and Giles, both ninth-inning specialists.

 

and also added that Gonsalves, Rooker, and Gordon might be trade candidates, and that the Twins have been doing due diligence with the pitchers in the organization to see whether they can help, and that includes Littell and Mejia....

 

Um, you realize that in the first sentence of the MLBTR piece, the link to LEN3's article was included, right?They actually got to it faster than you did, and then wrote 700 words of analysis.While MLBTR definitely starts from a source, moreso than attempting to "break" stories, they are hardly an aggregator.


#26 KFEY93

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 02:07 PM

 

I like a guy who punches himself in the face after giving up a three run homer...saves all of us the trouble of imagining doing it ourselves.

 

As for the insubordination, I am indeed anti-. But I'm pro beefing up the bullpen enough to leap to the assumption that bygones are bygones.

I like you, haha. 


#27 Major League Ready

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 02:15 PM

 

I'd concur on Yates, but there are relievers available today, if you're willing to meet what will be the eventual price. Giles, for example, could be had today. 

 

Waiting serves no purpose IMO, other than to invite other teams into the bidding as options dry up.

 

How do you account for minimal trade activity so far? Are they all just unwilling to pay the "eventual price"?There are lots of teams interested in making additions and there will be numerous transactions starting about a week from now. It simply takes time for both buyers and sellers to do their due diligence. Rushing important decisions/transactions is a certain sign of incompetence.

 

In addition, several teams are still waiting to determine if they should sell or at a minimum they don't want to tell their fans they don't think much of their chances this year. Also, sellers would be absolutely incompetent if they don't go back and forth with multiple buyers attempting to get the best return. It has always worked this way yet you are certain it's just reluctance to pay market value. 

Edited by Major League Ready, 08 July 2019 - 02:22 PM.

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#28 Danchat

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 02:16 PM

Well, one thing is clear to me - the FO is looking around at starters and relievers and are definitely interested... as compared to “just going with the internal guys”. Whether they pull the trigger on one of the bigger names is up for debate.

Check out my work at Purple Pain, a Vikings forum: 

Analyzing the Past Decade of Vikings Offseasons


#29 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 02:17 PM

 

 

Apparently the Twins and Yankees have looked in on packaging Giles and Stroman. I'd be very OK with it, if the price is right. One of the Twittereres suggested Graterol....Straight up? maybe...

 

Yes, sure.

 

We are hungry for a World Series, some sort of successful postseason. Graterol is no guarantee, so I would do it.

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#30 gunnarthor

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:10 PM

I think Stroman and Giles together would require at least one of Lewis and Kiriloff and probably both. With Graterol out with an undiagnosed arm injury, I would assume he has zero trade value. A deal of Lewis/Larnich/Balovic/Duran might not be enough.


#31 mendozaline

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:27 PM

 

I think Stroman and Giles together would require at least one of Lewis and Kiriloff and probably both. With Graterol out with an undiagnosed arm injury, I would assume he has zero trade value. A deal of Lewis/Larnich/Balovic/Duran might not be enough.

I don't think there is any chance that 2 top 10 prospects in all of baseball are going in the same deal for Stroman and Giles. I know Lewis and AK haven't exactly improved their stock to this point but it would absolutely blow my mind if that happened. I feel like it's one of the big two and spare parts or it's 2-3 high quality prospects and a lotto ticket. 

 

I would offer something like: Graterol, Rooker, Gordon, and Jeffers/Rortvedt. That might even be too much.

Edited by mendozaline, 08 July 2019 - 03:31 PM.

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#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:30 PM


 
Apparently the Twins and Yankees have looked in on packaging Giles and Stroman. I'd be very OK with it, if the price is right. One of the Twittereres suggested Graterol....Straight up? maybe...


I’d guess that Twitterer was a Twins fan?
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#33 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:33 PM

I don't think there is any chance that 2 top 10 prospects in all of baseball are going in the same deal for Stroman and Giles. I know Lewis and AK haven't exactly improved their stock to this point but it would absolutely blow my mind if that happened. I feel like it's one of the big two and spare parts or it's 2-3 high quality prospects and a lotto ticket.


I don’t think most scouts would say the Twins have two top ten prospects, and I’m certain they wouldn’t go by a publication to make their decision.
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#34 Obsvr

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:38 PM

 

 

 

I would offer something like: Graterol, Rooker, Gordon, and Jeffers/Rortvedt. That might even be too much.

 

Zero chance they offer up a package like that.Maybe one of the first three and maybe 1 of the second two at best.

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#35 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:49 PM

 

I think Stroman and Giles together would require at least one of Lewis and Kiriloff and probably both. 

 

Wow. I doubt it. Look at past trades to see what kind of guys this would take. One of our top 3-10 guys and 2 guys in that 10-20 range would do it. 

 

 

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#36 dbminn

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 04:29 PM

 

Wow. I doubt it. Look at past trades to see what kind of guys this would take. One of our top 3-10 guys and 2 guys in that 10-20 range would do it. 

 

The Blue Jays need a lot of pitching, 1B, and OF. I propose:

 

Rooker, JDavis, Balazovic/Duran and Alcala. 

 

By WAR value...

 

Stroman and Giles are eligible for arbitration in 2020. Assume they put up similar numbers as they have so far in 2019: 3.2 WAR remainder of this year, 5.7 WAR in 2020. That's 8.9 WAR x $9M/WAR = approximately $80M. Salaries will be $8.5M for the rest of this year and maybe $25M in 2020 - let's say $35M total. That leaves $45M in excess value. One 50 FV position player and one 50 FV pitcher are estimated to be worth $49M. Add in a premium and I think the Twins could make the trade right now.

 

Balazovic, Duran and Rooker will all be ranked at 50 FV at the end of the season. Davis has some helium right now. Alcala can throw a 100 MPH, even if he hasn't developed all that much. 

 

* - a 50 Future Value player is defined as a solid starter in the major leagues.

Edited by dbminn, 08 July 2019 - 04:31 PM.


#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 04:46 PM

 

I don’t think most scouts would say the Twins have two top ten prospects, and I’m certain they wouldn’t go by a publication to make their decision.

No, the Jays probably don't have them both top ten but disregarding publications is pretty misleading and misses the point. We literally have no idea how the Jays (or literally any of the 30 MLB teams, including the Twins) honestly view any prospect. For all we know, the Jays have Kirilloff ahead of Lewis. Maybe they love them both. Maybe they hate them both. No one knows except the Jays.

 

What we do have is publications that do a generalized ranking of all prospects. Lewis is consensus top ten and Kirilloff is ranked 9 by MLB.com, 15 by BA, and 39 by BP (obviously because Gleeman hates the Twins).

 

Not consensus top ten for both but definitely highly ranked.

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#38 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 05:01 PM

Both are strong prospects, but neither are hitting great. My point is simply that Toronto would be terrible at negotiating if they allowed the Twins to value both of them as top ten prospects in negotiations considering both players current struggles.

#39 Thrylos

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 05:03 PM

 

Um, you realize that in the first sentence of the MLBTR piece, the link to LEN3's article was included, right?They actually got to it faster than you did, and then wrote 700 words of analysis.While MLBTR definitely starts from a source, moreso than attempting to "break" stories, they are hardly an aggregator.

 

I was not trying to compete with MLBTR as far as linking to LEN3's piece where they got their info.My issue was linking to the MLBTR post, instead of the original post (LEN3's) that has more information.

 

And, yes, they are an aggregator of other people's news, other than their chats.

 

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#40 IndianaTwin

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 05:46 PM

I don't get the "the Twins never do anything" argument.

 

First, I think it's unfair to compare 2016 and before to the present. Sure, the owner is the same and that matters a lot, but it's Falvey and Levine in the chairs now rather than their predecessors. 

 

Second, I'd love to have someone smarter than me (which means many of you) do a serious analysis of their transactions since coming on board and measure how many "wins" and "losses" they've had. I tend to be an optimist, but it seems to me like they've had a lot more wins than losses. And one can't quantify these, but it seems like they've also had plenty of "wins" in the "pass" category as well (Darvish, most of the relievers in last winter's class, as it turns out). 

 

Third, I don't know whether this is a legitimate way to quantify things, but I did a search for "traded" in MLB.com's list of July 2018 transactions. It showed up 52 times. Each trade needs two partners, so that's 104. Divide by 30 and you get that teams, on average, made about 3.5 trades. The Twins made seven. In 2017, there were 62 trades, so an average of just over 4 trades per team. The Twins made five, and remember that they seemed to spend much of 2017 in "analysis" mode. That is at least suggesting that it's possible that the Twins make more transactions than average, at least during July.

 

Fourth, in addition to making more than an average number of trades over the past two Julys, I'd also suggest that that in both seasons, they made the right type of trade for their context. If they've done that the past two years, what is to suggest that they won't do it again this year?

 

In addition, in this very unscientific study, it also seems worth noting that in 2017, 30 of the 62 trades happened on July 26 or later (and another 5 on the 24th). In 2018, 36 of the 52 trades happened on July 26 or later, including 23 (close to half) on the 30th and 31st alone. In both years, trades were made throughout the month, but it takes two to tango, and the reality is that over the past two years, 58 percent of the trades were made in the last six days of the month.

 

We don't know what effect not having waiver trades this year will make. We also can "make an offer they can't refuse," but that's pretty synonymous with "give up more than you need to," which doesn't seem to be this front office's mindset. But based on history, I'll be surprised if the team (read "pitching staff" doesn't look significantly different three weeks from Thursday.  

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