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Craig Kimbrel Tracker

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#21 biggentleben

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Posted 07 July 2019 - 06:23 PM

 

Better choosing between Kimbrel, Strop, or Cishek than just Strop or Cishek, though.

 

Still would have Brandon Morrow returning in the second half, along with Brad Brach and Brandon Kintzler even without Kimbrel.

 

One report this week stated that this put the Cubs over on luxury tax to the point where they will be dropping 10 spots in the draft in 2020. As the Cubs sit third in the NL in record and in a dogfight in their division to even make the playoffs, I'm not sure closer is the position that you gain the impact enough to make that worth it.

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 July 2019 - 06:34 PM

 

Still would have Brandon Morrow returning in the second half, along with Brad Brach and Brandon Kintzler even without Kimbrel.

 

One report this week stated that this put the Cubs over on luxury tax to the point where they will be dropping 10 spots in the draft in 2020. As the Cubs sit third in the NL in record and in a dogfight in their division to even make the playoffs, I'm not sure closer is the position that you gain the impact enough to make that worth it.

They might not be done adding....and he cost money and 10 spots in the draft (so far). That's less than trading a real prospect, I'd guess.

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#23 nicksaviking

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Posted 07 July 2019 - 07:18 PM

My Cubs fan friends are going nuts.


You should keep better company :)
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#24 biggentleben

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Posted 07 July 2019 - 11:50 PM

 

They might not be done adding....and he cost money and 10 spots in the draft (so far). That's less than trading a real prospect, I'd guess.

 

Based on Fangraphs' pick valuation and prospect valuation articles from Craig Edwards, that'd be $2-5M in value lost, which would equate to a 45+ prospect on their list. Per Fangraphs' list for the Twins, that'd be the equivalent of Wander Javier or Luis Arraez.

 

....and that's not counting the loss of international money or just the straight salary.

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#25 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 05:21 AM

 

Based on Fangraphs' pick valuation and prospect valuation articles from Craig Edwards, that'd be $2-5M in value lost, which would equate to a 45+ prospect on their list. Per Fangraphs' list for the Twins, that'd be the equivalent of Wander Javier or Luis Arraez.

 

....and that's not counting the loss of international money or just the straight salary.

 

Give them Wander Javier then.


#26 spycake

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 05:55 AM

Still would have Brandon Morrow returning in the second half, along with Brad Brach and Brandon Kintzler even without Kimbrel.

One report this week stated that this put the Cubs over on luxury tax to the point where they will be dropping 10 spots in the draft in 2020. As the Cubs sit third in the NL in record and in a dogfight in their division to even make the playoffs, I'm not sure closer is the position that you gain the impact enough to make that worth it.


Link? They are still saving Zobrist money, so every analysis I have read shows them as under that threshold. For example:

https://www.bleedcub...-trade-deadline

Also, they would be fools to count on Morrow for anything at this point, but if he does come back, the same principle applies: better choosing from Kimbrel plus their other relievers, than simply choosing from the other relievers.

#27 waltomeal

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Posted 10 August 2019 - 10:26 PM

The "tracker" hasn't been updated in a while.

Kimbrel:5.68 ERA, -0.2 WAR, on the IL.

Just trying to help out.

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#28 gil4

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Posted 10 August 2019 - 10:58 PM

 

The "tracker" hasn't been updated in a while.

Kimbrel:5.68 ERA, -0.2 WAR, on the IL.

Just trying to help out.

Sounds about like what we traded for, except Dyson's ERA is slightly higher.(ERA of 81.00, and he managed to pack -0.3 WAR into 2/3 IP.)

 

That said, I think Dyson will help down the stretch. I didn't think it was a great plan to put him in that first game when he had just arrived during the game and hadn't even introduced himself to his catcher.

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#29 old nurse

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Posted 11 August 2019 - 11:18 AM

14 games.11 games no runsThat would be a better success rate than May of Duffey.


#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 September 2019 - 03:33 PM

Kimbrel to the IL... elbow...

 

 

Elbow inflammation....


#31 Danchat

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 09:10 AM

Kimbrel against Cardinals in the Cubs biggest series: 1.2 IP, 3 ER, got credit for 2 losses. Cubs season is over.

Kimbrel has already given up 9 HRs and has over 5 BBs/9. No wonder why nobody wanted to sign this guy... BBref has him at -0.5 WAR.

Edited by Danchat, 25 September 2019 - 09:10 AM.

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#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 10:35 AM

I wonder what kind of medical reports the Cubs had that indicated it would be a good idea to bring him back? His velocity is still way down (though still better than average).

 

I had no interest in Kimbrel for this year, but I was interested in signing him to a multi year deal because these hold-out guys do seem to rebound in year two. I'm more skeptical about that now though, I hope for his sake the Cubs aren't doing him a disservice running him out there while he's still ailing.


#33 ashbury

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 10:51 AM

I wonder what kind of medical reports the Cubs had that indicated it would be a good idea to bring him back? His velocity is still way down (though still better than average).

 

I had no interest in Kimbrel for this year, but I was interested in signing him to a multi year deal because these hold-out guys do seem to rebound in year two. I'm more skeptical about that now though, I hope for his sake the Cubs aren't doing him a disservice running him out there while he's still ailing.

Yeah, I wonder if a careful study would actually bear that out, or if we just mentally discard the cases where it works out less well.

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#34 spycake

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Posted 25 September 2019 - 12:13 PM

 

I had no interest in Kimbrel for this year, but I was interested in signing him to a multi year deal because these hold-out guys do seem to rebound in year two.

How does Dallas Keuchel affect your "hold-outs suffer in year one" theory? :)

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