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Article: 2019 Twins Midseason Top Prospect List: 11-15

matt wallner luis arraez nick gordon lewis thorpe ryan jeffers
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#41 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 01:17 PM

According to baseball reference, dick n bert are pronouncing it correctly, not you.
They have it as "ah-RIZE".


This is how to pronounce it, obviously:

https://mobile.twitt...316768750727168

However, like I said, skip the rolled r. The ae combination is Spanish is pronounced ah-ay, and the z is usually pronounced as a “ess” sound or at least a softer z.

I think the best way to phonetically learn how to pronounce it, for a non-native speaker (which I am not), is:

ah—RAH—ess.
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#42 Thrylos

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 03:57 PM

 

When Arraez’s BABiP normalizes...and it will normalize a lot...we’ll probably have a high BA major leaguer with almost zero power, average on the bases, and adequate defense at second. So kind of high floor, low ceiling at this point.

 

Interesting.

 

Math:

 

Arraez's BABIP right now is .449.He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360.That is .090 points higher.  

 

If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429.Do you call that low ceiling?I'd take that every day.

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#43 Thrylos

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 03:58 PM

I just hope that other teams have Gordon ranked that high.He might help bring some badly needed pitching for the Twins.

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#44 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 05:04 PM

Interesting.

Math:

Arraez's BABIP right now is .449. He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360. That is .090 points higher.

If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429. Do you call that low ceiling? I'd take that every day.


I'd have to see how milb babip historically translates to mlb babip. Without looking, I'd imagine there is a pretty consistent dropoff, due to facing better pitching, defense, and field conditions.

#45 jkcarew

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 05:20 PM

Interesting.
 
Math:
 
Arraez's BABIP right now is .449.He is hitting .442/.524/.558 His career BABIP has been around .360.That is .090 points higher.  
 
If you think that it will normalize to that and subtract it from this slash line, you got .353/.435/.449, which is better than Rod Carew's (to pick on your username) career .328/.393/.429.Do you call that low ceiling?I'd take that every day.


I’d call that an unrealistic ceiling.

#46 Thrylos

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 05:22 PM

 

I'd have to see how milb babip historically translates to mlb babip. Without looking, I'd imagine there is a pretty consistent dropoff, due to facing better pitching, defense, and field conditions.

 

On the other hand, a major leaguer is closer to his prime than a minor leaguer so you assume that he will improve as a player. Have to compare similar players. Someone like Polanco for example, has has BABIP around .345 each of the past season.In the minors his average BABIP was .330.Pretty much in the ballpark. 

 

Kepler's BABIP decreased by 50 points or so in the majors, but he is a different player now, hitting homers instead of doubles (and homers are subtracted in the BABIP calculation, since they are not in play.) It is typical for power hitters to have lower BABIP than non-power hitters.I am not sure that Arraez will have that problem ;)

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#47 DocBauer

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 07:19 PM

SO much about this debate on Arraez and Gordon I like and find interesting. And I think both sides of the aisle here are smart with their opinions. And let us not forget, at least in regard to the TD rankings here in the OP, we are talking a neck and neck debate.

Things change. The fortunes of young prospects change. Sticking only with infield comparisons, it was not so long ago Polanco was questionable for various reasons, offensively and especially defensively. Now, I am NOT opening up a debate/ perspective on Polanco, just using him as an example.

NOBODY can seriously debate that Arreaz has a better hit tool than Gordon. At the very least, at this point in their careers. But scouts and prospect rankings are based on tools and potential. I am no expert, to be sure. But we are talking about one guy who has more speed, more overall athleticism, SS potential/ability, and what scouts see as more pop/power than a hit machine prosoect. Those reports and observations are real. Now, it doesn't mean Gordon WILL BE the better player. It only means his tools equate to a potentially better overall player.

BOTH of these guys have slight frames and need to add muscle. BOTH can. BOTH can work on arm strength and hands and positioning to make them better defensively.

Right now, today, health and hit tool has Arreaz with the Twins. And I am thrilled by what I see thus far in SSS. But with a good start to 2018, in case you forgot, Gordon might have been brought up before Arreaz if he hadn't made a trip to the IL. This conversation may be entirely different had said injury not happened. It is a very real possibility we would be talking about Gordon as our 2B next season and Arreaz as trade bait.

I am reminded of Jay Bell, a couple decades ago, who seemed to disappoint before being traded and carved out a very nice career as a 2B/SS elsewhere. Gordon could flop! He may never hit as well as Arraez, and I'd bet he won't. But by next season, he could be better defensively, and even more versatile/valuable as a result, with more speed and just as much pop/power or more.

To be clear, I like both kids a lot. Would be nice to keep both, but guessing one will be gone soon. But long term, debating one is clearly a superior prospect over the other at this time is a bit of a fools errand. I just hope whichever one stays is the right choice by the FO.
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#48 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 30 June 2019 - 05:44 AM

with Gordon, I'd just like to see him finish a season strong. He's started a bunch strong, but gets into a funk and never gets out. Not sure if that's a conditioning thing, mental thing, or something else. 

 

Given he's a 40 man guy, I do think he's one of the ones likely to be traded next month for help. I'm fine with that, as we have a plethora of middle infield type guys and one in the majors who isn't going anywhere anytime soon. 


#49 Steve Lein

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:40 AM

 

Check the Board for updates. They moved Arreaz to sixth, and maybe trending up from there.

 

I've been trying to find where you see him at #6 too. The BOARD still has him at 12.

 

https://www.fangraph...enum=0&team=min

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#50 108Stitches

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:40 AM

Arraez is younger than Gordon.
Gordon may not stay at SS.
Arraez is a much better hitter.
 
Watching Arraez take an at-bat is like looking at art.
 
Gordon is rated higher here only because he was the 5th pick of the draft.
 
Enough said.


Remember, most of these are about what they THINK a guy should do and what he ACTUALLY does isn’t given nearly as much weight. Hence why Alcala is in the top 20 with nearly a 6 era in his entire time in this .org. It doesn’t matter who has more tools, it matters who is getting the job done. Maybe it’s just me.

#51 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:47 AM

 

I've been trying to find where you see him at #6 too. The BOARD still has him at 12.

 

https://www.fangraph...enum=0&team=min

https://www.fangraph...t=-1,1&team=min

 

I see him at 6th there right now.....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#52 Steve Lein

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:31 AM

 

https://www.fangraph...t=-1,1&team=min

 

I see him at 6th there right now.....

 

Weird. Thanks for that link. Not sure how they have two versions of it you can get to, hah!

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:32 AM

 

Weird. Thanks for that link. Not sure how they have two versions of it you can get to, hah!

 

that is odd.....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#54 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:06 PM

Remember, most of these are about what they THINK a guy should do and what he ACTUALLY does isn’t given nearly as much weight. Hence why Alcala is in the top 20 with nearly a 6 era in his entire time in this .org. It doesn’t matter who has more tools, it matters who is getting the job done. Maybe it’s just me.


Well tools matter too. I mean, that's what the minor leagues are for,development of tools.
Once they get to mlb, then results matter much more than tools. Though, even at mlb guys can continue to develop. Some on this board wanted Kepler to be the 4th outfielder this year, behind Cave, because they were looking at results only, without recognizing that Kepler had tools that had the potential for a breakout.
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#55 gbg

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Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:44 PM

Mike Sixel, on 01 Jul 2019 - 11:47 AM, said:

https://www.fangraph...t=-1,1&team=min

I see him at 6th there right now.....

Weird. Thanks for that link. Not sure how they have two versions of it you can get to, hah!

that is odd.....

The first link is their pre-season 2019 list. The second is their "Updated 2019" list, which does have him jumping way up.

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