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Posted 05 October 2012 - 09:30 AM
I thought yesterday that it was both SO and BB but the walks are probably within a statistical norm given the number of PA.
But 88 strikeouts in 641 PA is 13.7%. Higher than in any of his other seasons by at least 2% (and more than some others).
Did you see anything that leads you to any conclusions as to why this happened?
Or is it simply something as simple as Umpires no longer giving him the benefit of the doubt?
Posted 05 October 2012 - 09:36 AM
Posted 05 October 2012 - 11:48 AM
Posted 05 October 2012 - 12:41 PM
In comparing BB/PA in 2012, Mauer walked 90 times in 641 appearances -- 14% of the time. This was his highest walk rate ever but in 2008, he walked 13.27% of the time so I didn't think that the increase this year was out of line statistically.
But on SO/PA, Mauer struck out 88 times in 641 appearances or 13.7% of the time. Prior to this, he averaged SOs in 9.9% of appearances with the highest rate prior to this year being 11.55% in 2005 followed by 11.41% in 2011. (His average SO rate is lower than it would be if you took the mean, I think, because he had incredibly low SO rates in 2006 & 2008 -- about 8%).
So I still see the jump in SO to be more significant than the increase in walks. Yes the walks are somewhat higher than in previous seasons but the increase isn't as significant as the increase in his SO rate.
Also, 2011 really was an anomoly for him because his SO rate was significantly higher than his walk rate -- the only year in which that happened. He turned that around in 2012 but his SO rate this year (13.7%) is basically 18% higher than his prior highest SO rate (11.6%).
That's why I wondered what Parker saw happening here.
Posted 05 October 2012 - 01:01 PM
What any of this means, I am unsure, but the extent to which a C/1B can sustain a BABIP of .345 is doubtful. Mauer doesn't really have any easy comparisons, so trying to guess at a career trend line is a mostly useless exercise. I am, however, concerned about the increased K rate, decreased ISO, and Spanian GB rate.