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Article: KC 6, MIN 1: Bad Inning Spoils Awesome Uniforms

michael pineda luis arraez eddie rosario
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#41 jz7233

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:20 AM

 

Pineda missed an entire season and understandably started slow but as was pointed out has been a different pitcher since the beginning of May.  Major league pitchers on average in 2018 had quality starts in 79 of 162 games which is just below 50%.  So far this year AL pitchers average 29 quality starts in 77 games which is way below 50% and the average ERA is 4.52. Pineda in his last 7 games had 5 quality starts and missed out on 7 of 7 by just an inning and a third.  That is as the 5th starter!...I can understand saying you have to include even the bad innings in a performance but why would you dismiss the latest 7 starts.  1 of his first 7 starts were quality and 5 of his last 7 were quality.  That still averages out to better than replacement but hardly tells the whole story which is that in the last month and a half he has been much better than the average major league starter.  Better than the average major league starter is more than all right for a #5.

Well it's not all right if a team has more than one #5 though. Perez definitely looks more like #5, Gibson sometimes looks like #5. Now there is a problem here for a contending team. 


#42 jz7233

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:30 AM

 

Large sample size across all levels of competition:

Sano- 3943 PA: .877 OPS
Arraez- 2027 PA: .802 OPS

Apparently Sano has a lot more power. That's all.

Edited by jz7233, 24 June 2019 - 07:31 AM.


#43 stringer bell

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:36 AM

Things change in baseball. Arraez wasn't on the radar as an infield option (Nick Gordon) even at the start of the season. Astudillo looked like he had developed power to go with uncanny contact skills. With the exception of his homer in his first game back, Tortuga is swinging a lot and making soft contact too often. Arraez has taken an opportunity and run with it. 

 

Here's my take: Arraez is an on-base guy, he probably never will draw a lot of walks because he hits a lot of singles. He's demonstrated some versatility, but is stretched at both short and third. Arraez fits this somewhat lumbering extra-base hitting team pretty well, get a guy on base before the bashers come up! The other drawback (besides lack of power) is Arraez' lack of speed. He's not a base-stealing threat or someone to distract the defense when he's on base. 

 

Regarding Astudillo, he should be in line to be the backup catcher next season. With him on the major league roster, there is versatility as well. The unanswered question, to me, is how much playing time is enough for Willians. With a 26-man roster next year, the Twins might be able to carry three catchers again next year.

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#44 bighat

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:41 AM

Got news for you Arraez fans, he's going to be the guy we send over for Bumgartner. It would have been nice if we could have hidden him in the minors, but he's played himself into a major trade piece.

 

If we've seen it, GMs around the league have too. His value is as high as it ever might be.

 

It's too bad because I'd much rather have Arraez at 2nd than Schoop at this point. I'm beginning to think his "sore leg" was more of a phantom injury to sit him down for a while. Same goes for Marwin and Adrianza - I think the Twins are just resting the vets right now with this big lead. Look for Cron to take a 10-day break with a sore shoulder in the next couple of weeks.

 

The way things are going this might be the last rest they get.

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#45 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:55 AM

Those jerseys are hideous!

#46 Dman

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:09 AM

 

In 2006 the Twins were double digits back for much of June and July and were still 10.5 back on August 7th.  In other words they were farther back way later in the season and came back to win on the last day of the season. Did the Tigers collapse? Maybe in the last 4 games but they won 95 (and got to the WS as a wild card btw).  How can you call that a collapse? If the Twins win half their games from this point they will have 93 wins which very likely gets them a wild card spot. You just cited several reasons why Cleveland will be getting better so why would you call it an epic collapse if they were to catch them with most of the season left to play? Most here thought the Twins might win 85 games or so.  I never thought the Twins were a shoo in for the division.  Just toomany guys playing too well.  Hard to sustain that. Much like at an individual level Arraez cannot sustain what he has been doing. I can still imagine them winning 95 or more but can also imagine them winning 90 or so. Its baseball. It doesn't have to be a collapse. It can be someone else getting hot.  

 

Thanks for bringing my rational side back.The emotional side of me misses the team that was flaming hot the first two months of the season.Yep lots of top teams are going through slumps.The Astros lost five in a row, I think the Brewers did as well, The Yankees and Rays have gone through tough stretches.It happens to every team.

 

It is just hard to see the competition get hot.Cleveland just always seems to find good pitchers.Even with their pitching injuries their young guys have just stepped right in and hardly missed a beat. Their offense after that horrible start is putting up runs at a good clip too.Right now they look better than our team IMO. Also the Indians schedule is pretty easy until August when they start facing tougher competition again.It sure feels like we are going to be reeled in.Probably a battle to the end of the season this year unless we totally collapse.

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#47 rdehring

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:29 AM

 

In the entire history of MLB, only 56 players have posted career OBP of .400 or higher. Even Joe Mauer failed to come close.
And you think it's not only LIKELY that Arraez will do this, but that he'll have WELL OVER it?

If that was indeed likely, he'd be the #1 overall prospect in baseball.

Yes, I believe he will have an OBP over .400.If not every year, certainly many years.As for his career, yes, I believe it will be possible.   

 

As you stated, there have been 56 players in the history of the game.Who is to say that Arraez cannot be the 57th?He has been very close to a .400 OBP for his entire minor league career.There is only one person who can say whether or not he will continue to improve as he matures and gains experience, Arraez himself.I believe he will.  

 

As for prospect evaluators, Arraez does not do the things they get excited about...thus, he doesn't get included in the upper echelons of their lists.All he has done, his entire minor league career, is get on base.I'll take that, especially amongst all the bombers he will be surrounded by.  


#48 yarnivek1972

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:59 AM

Yes, I believe he will have an OBP over .400. If not every year, certainly many years. As for his career, yes, I believe it will be possible.

As you stated, there have been 56 players in the history of the game. Who is to say that Arraez cannot be the 57th? He has been very close to a .400 OBP for his entire minor league career. There is only one person who can say whether or not he will continue to improve as he matures and gains experience, Arraez himself. I believe he will.

As for prospect evaluators, Arraez does not do the things they get excited about...thus, he doesn't get included in the upper echelons of their lists. All he has done, his entire minor league career, is get on base. I'll take that, especially amongst all the bombers he will be surrounded by.


Arraez’s ability to draw walks in the minors relates more to the inability of minor leaguers to throw strikes than fear of what Arraez can do at the plate. MLB pitchers are better at throwing strikes. Sure, his selectivity is definitely a plus, but his walk rate is still going to drop substantially.
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#49 Doomtints

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:09 AM

 

Agree. Astudillo has gotten so overrated by many twins fans. His slugging percentage is abysmal. He’s not particularly hard to get out in a jam (just make him chase). We’ve already seen him drop fly balls in the outfield in key situations.

 

Astudillo was rated properly, I think. He was playing hot and we wanted him in the majors until he cooled off. Now that he has, it's OK that he goes to the minors.

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#50 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:13 AM

I don't think the "can Arraez have an over .400 OBP" debate is really the relevant question. The question is can he hit .275/.350/.425 and play a good 2B or decent 3B? If he can, he's someone we need to keep because Schoop is very iffy for being on this team next year and Sano remains a bit of a question mark.

 

I'd love to see them find a way to keep Arreaz on the MLB roster this season and give him 300 ABs.I just don't see it though unless someone is traded off the MLB roster and don't see that happening. Cave goes down when Buxton comes back tomorrow. Astudillo goes down when Gonzalez comes back assuming that Garver is ready to go every other day. I know people love Astudillo but he can't really hit well enough (.652 OPS is pretty bad) and is at best mediocre in the field wherever he's played. Then it comes down to Adrianza or Arraez. Adrianza is too valuable since he's shown he can hit some and play SS so Arraez goes. Arraez is your 26th man, Astudilo number 27 who becomes 26 if a C gets hurt. 

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#51 rdehring

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:21 AM

 

Arraez’s ability to draw walks in the minors relates more to the inability of minor leaguers to throw strikes than fear of what Arraez can do at the plate. MLB pitchers are better at throwing strikes. Sure, his selectivity is definitely a plus, but his walk rate is still going to drop substantially.

I understand that I am in the minority here, perhaps a minority of one.But I believe Arraez' OBP and walk rate will improve in the major leagues compared with the minors.  

 

Just watch him take at bats.He is selective and has the ability to work long at bats.Yes, I doubt he will continue the 20%, or whatever, walk rate in his first forty some plate appearances.But I believe it will be higher than the minors, thus, his minor league .385 OPS can, and will, actually go up once he has settled into his major league career.

 

 


#52 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:51 AM

For his minor league career, Arraez took 122 bb, compared to 129 k, in 1,585 PA's.That's a 7.7% bb rate, which is right around a top-11 rate in all of MLB.This despite a career minors SLG of .414.Arraez is a professional hitter who will be 22 the rest of this season--I'd be shocked if he's not the starting 2nd baseman next year.

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#53 yarnivek1972

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:04 AM

I understand that I am in the minority here, perhaps a minority of one. But I believe Arraez' OBP and walk rate will improve in the major leagues compared with the minors.

Just watch him take at bats. He is selective and has the ability to work long at bats. Yes, I doubt he will continue the 20%, or whatever, walk rate in his first forty some plate appearances. But I believe it will be higher than the minors, thus, his minor league .385 OPS can, and will, actually go up once he has settled into his major league career.


Based on what?

#54 Dantes929

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:10 AM

 

Thanks for bringing my rational side back.The emotional side of me misses the team that was flaming hot the first two months of the season.Yep lots of top teams are going through slumps.The Astros lost five in a row, I think the Brewers did as well, The Yankees and Rays have gone through tough stretches.It happens to every team.

 

It is just hard to see the competition get hot.Cleveland just always seems to find good pitchers.Even with their pitching injuries their young guys have just stepped right in and hardly missed a beat. Their offense after that horrible start is putting up runs at a good clip too.Right now they look better than our team IMO. Also the Indians schedule is pretty easy until August when they start facing tougher competition again.It sure feels like we are going to be reeled in.Probably a battle to the end of the season this year unless we totally collapse.

I love battles to the end. 2006, 2008, and 2009 were awesome though it is a little more satisfying coming from behind than watching leads dwindle.I am more about the journey than the destination games that matter in September are all I ask for, but yes, watching a hot streak in May and June is fun also.

 

I understand that I am in the minority here, perhaps a minority of one.But I believe Arraez' OBP and walk rate will improve in the major leagues compared with the minors.  

 

Just watch him take at bats.He is selective and has the ability to work long at bats.Yes, I doubt he will continue the 20%, or whatever, walk rate in his first forty some plate appearances.But I believe it will be higher than the minors, thus, his minor league .385 OPS can, and will, actually go up once he has settled into his major league career.

I hope you are right in all you say. He is young after all and likely to improve but walk rates don't improve in the majors especially when we are talking singles hitters.They will not walk guys that can't harm them with extra bases. You are talking aboutthe #17 Twins prospect doing better than Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.I think a Ben Revere comparison will be more likely, though hopefully favorably.Anything over .350 OBP would make him very useful. 

 

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#55 spycake

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 11:03 AM

 

It's too bad because I'd much rather have Arraez at 2nd than Schoop at this point. I'm beginning to think his "sore leg" was more of a phantom injury to sit him down for a while. Same goes for Marwin and Adrianza - I think the Twins are just resting the vets right now with this big lead. Look for Cron to take a 10-day break with a sore shoulder in the next couple of weeks.

FWIW, Schoop's sore leg didn't land him on the DL so I don't think it was much of a phantom injury for rest.

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#56 spycake

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 11:17 AM

 

For his minor league career, Arraez took 122 bb, compared to 129 k, in 1,585 PA's.That's a 7.7% bb rate, which is right around a top-11 rate in all of MLB.This despite a career minors SLG of .414.

I'm not sure how you figured "top-11"? The MLB non-pitcher walk rate is 8.8% this year. So 7.7% would be below average. (Among MLB teams, 7.7% would rank 25th, just ahead of the Royals.)

 

And walk rates are also higher in the minor leagues. 9.5% in the IL this year, for example. 9.1-9.2% in the Southern League this year and last year, etc. And I'm not sure minor league BB% is all that correlated with SLG -- see LaMonte Wade.

 

Reflecting this, and the change in competition, ZiPS projects Arraez to have a 6.2% walk rate the rest of the MLB season, which is indeed up from their preseason projection of 5.5%, but a far cry from his current 16.7%!

 

Of course, Arraez could still be good/useful with a below average walk rate, or a sub-.400 OBP. :)


#57 Doomtints

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 11:58 AM

It's interesting how the Twins keep saying "it was just one bad inning" for Pineda.

 

Welcome to being the next Gibson, I guess, but the bad innings count too. In fact, the bad innings are the only ones people will remember.

 

I wonder how many baseball games are decided by "one bad inning" for the pitcher. I would think it's at least 40%.

Edited by Doomtints, 24 June 2019 - 12:00 PM.

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#58 stringer bell

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 12:08 PM

 

I love battles to the end. 2006, 2008, and 2009 were awesome though it is a little more satisfying coming from behind than watching leads dwindle.I am more about the journey than the destination games that matter in September are all I ask for, but yes, watching a hot streak in May and June is fun also.

 

I hope you are right in all you say. He is young after all and likely to improve but walk rates don't improve in the majors especially when we are talking singles hitters.They will not walk guys that can't harm them with extra bases. You are talking aboutthe #17 Twins prospect doing better than Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn.I think a Ben Revere comparison will be more likely, though hopefully favorably.Anything over .350 OBP would make him very useful. 

The idea of not walking singles hitters makes sense, particularly if they aren't a threat on the bases. One doesn't walk Billy Hamilton because he's liable to steal secord and third, but walking Arraez puts a runner on. Given the composition of this team, an on-base guy would be valuable instead of the sixth or seventh best home run threat.

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#59 h2oface

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 12:22 PM

 

Pineda missed an entire season and understandably started slow but as was pointed out has been a different pitcher since the beginning of May.  Major league pitchers on average in 2018 had quality starts in 79 of 162 games which is just below 50%.  So far this year AL pitchers average 29 quality starts in 77 games which is way below 50% and the average ERA is 4.52. Pineda in his last 7 games had 5 quality starts and missed out on 7 of 7 by just an inning and a third.  That is as the 5th starter!...I can understand saying you have to include even the bad innings in a performance but why would you dismiss the latest 7 starts.  1 of his first 7 starts were quality and 5 of his last 7 were quality.  That still averages out to better than replacement but hardly tells the whole story which is that in the last month and a half he has been much better than the average major league starter.  Better than the average major league starter is more than all right for a #5.

 

Wasn't Pineda the 4th starter, and Perez the 5th? It was Perez that got bullpenned to start the season. Sure Perez has maybe, maybe pitched better overall (recent starts may disagree) but just declaring Pineda the 5th starter seems arbitrary, and actually a demotion because he has pitched the worst of the starters. It doesn't really matter..... the # assigned.... but a tad bit interesting to me. Is Pineda's performance as the 4th starter as acceptable?

Edited by h2oface, 24 June 2019 - 12:24 PM.

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#60 Dantes929

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 02:51 PM

 

Wasn't Pineda the 4th starter, and Perez the 5th? It was Perez that got bullpenned to start the season. Sure Perez has maybe, maybe pitched better overall (recent starts may disagree) but just declaring Pineda the 5th starter seems arbitrary, and actually a demotion because he has pitched the worst of the starters. It doesn't really matter..... the # assigned.... but a tad bit interesting to me. Is Pineda's performance as the 4th starter as acceptable?

People value different stats. I kind of like the quality start stat and ERA but don't really believe there is a gold standard of stats for pitchers.I also try to look a little bit at circumstances. Perez didn't start out the year as a starter cuz of the schedule. Gibson got off to a slow start presumably because health.If Pineda's first and last 7 games were switched around I wouldn't be defending him.His 6 week stretch before last night was more in line with a #3 or better.Again, the average ERA in the AL is 4.52. The quality start percentage is 37% and Houston is the only team that has over 50%. Place them however you want. I am quite comfortable putting either against pretty much any other teams #4 and 5 and in many cases #3.  

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