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Should the twins be sellers at the deadline?

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#81 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 10:31 PM

Almost would rather the Twins make a couple of trades and miss the playoffs than make the playoffs and lose in four games to Houston or New York.

Don't expect to build up the weak by pulling down the strong.


#82 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 10:51 PM

Is there a particular reason you chose 7 starts for Odorizzi and 15 for Gibson?


To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.

#83 gil4

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 11:27 PM

 

Maybe they can and maybe can't, but since this question is going to be unknowable any time it's asked, I'm curious how you'll identify the hypothetical future Twins team that provides a clear "yes" to this question. They've got the best run differential in the AL by a not-that-small amount. They've got a generous division lead that should allow them to rest key players so they're not cooked in October. And they've got good assets in the system to acquire extra help if they need it. 

 

I understand the importance of picking your moment when your team isn't willing to spend limitlessly, but I also sort of think that if we can't look at this team and say "they should go for it" then we should probably concede we'll never be able to look at a team in (nearly) July and say that.

That '87 team definitely should have been selling at the deadline.

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#84 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 06:14 AM

To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.


Well if we are using career numbers now, Odorizzi has a better career winning percentage and ERA (by a lot) than Gibson does.
4.42 vs. 3.87 ERA.
.492 vs .527 winning%.

#85 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 06:15 AM

Again, because you seem to not be getting this point: Gibson had an INTENTIONAL one inning start just before the break. Even if you count his first three starts, you HAVE to ignore that one. So, Gibson has 103 1/3 IP in 18 starts wheras Odorizzi has 99 IP in 19 starts. That’s still more than one out per start.


Sorry, missed the 1 inning start in your previous post.

#86 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 06:17 AM

To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.


Any statistician attempting to objectively measure a trend would always use the same sample size for both subjects.

What do the numbers look like if you use the last 15 starts for both?

#87 ashbury

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:06 AM

Any statistician attempting to objectively measure a trend would always use the same sample size for both subjects.

What do the numbers look like if you use the last 15 starts for both?

In fairness, if the poster's trying to depict a trend, simple apples-to-oranges comparisons may not do the job either. I think his point is that there's been a recent downward trend for one, while the same period and even further back looks steady for the other. While the additional verbiage might help, a different approach than averages might be even better - I just don't know what, maybe a graph?

So, in conclusion, what was your question again?


#88 howeda7

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:07 AM

 

To show trend. Gibson has been consistent over time. Odorizzi has been on a downward trend. That trend is more consistent with his career body of work . Odorizzi is a career high 3s to low 4s era, just above .500 pitcher. In 2018 he was 7-10, 4.49, in 2017 he was 10-8, 4.14. The last 7 games are not good and are driving his 2019 stats in the same era direction; better record because the team is better. I think Odorizzi is what he has been in 2017 and 2018, not the #2 starter he was for the first half of the season. Gibson was better last year, although not in 2017, and I think he will better in the second half of this year. That’s why I would rather have Gibson if we’re going to sign one for next year.

I agree. I figure Odorizzi is going to cost something in the 3/$45 range and Gibson 3/$36. I'd much rather have Gibson. Even if the cost is the same, I'd still lean Gibson.

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#89 howeda7

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:10 AM

 

baseballtradevalues.com is a fun resource if you haven't checked it out before. Below are validated trades from that website as potential options:

SF Trades: LHP Will Smith Total Value 9.2
MIN Trades: LF/1B Brent Rooker Total Value 9.2

I'd do that trade yesterday.

TOR trades: RHP Ken Giles Total Value 9.6
MIN Trades: SS Wander Javier (6.6) RHP Blaine Enlow (3.7) Total 10.3

Slight overpay. I'd like to switch Gonsalves but since he's on IL I'm trying to be realistic.

TEX trades: RHP Chris Martin (0.7 TV)
MIN trades: OF Jaylin Davis (0.7 TV)

Trading for the ace as always is going to be tough.

If anyone wants to do their own trade proposals it's pretty fun!

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com

Do we really want to take a chance on Giles elbow? If it blows up, he's done for next year too.


#90 Vanimal46

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:20 AM

Do we really want to take a chance on Giles elbow? If it blows up, he's done for next year too.


Is his elbow a higher risk for injury than any other pitcher out there?

#91 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:21 AM

Snap out of it puckstopper1. Keep calm and carry onI think I can, I think I can, I think I can. We are the little engine that could.


#92 Bomba2026

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:39 AM

I wish we could sell half of our bullpen to Cleveland! I think our 4 starters are good, but they need to start pitching into the 8th inning like pitchers did back in the day....To pull out a guy who has given up 0-2 runs is not working...I personally like Smeltzer and I think he will be a good pitcher. I'd rather put him in for 2 to 3 innings until he gets more time. I'd rather have a slump in June than September. Go Twins-sweep the Yankees!
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#93 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 12:30 PM

 

I agree. I figure Odorizzi is going to cost something in the 3/$45 range and Gibson 3/$36. I'd much rather have Gibson. Even if the cost is the same, I'd still lean Gibson.

Agreed. I think Gibson is the better, more consistent starter. Also, Gibson generally goes at least 6 innings with a chance to go 6+ or 7 innings in a start. Odorizzi does not. 6 innings max, usually 5 or 5+. Huge difference on your bullpen usage. 


#94 howeda7

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 01:49 PM

 

Is his elbow a higher risk for injury than any other pitcher out there?

I believe he's had missed time with elbow pain in two different places in the last month. So...yes?


#95 howeda7

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 01:50 PM

 

 

Agreed. I think Gibson is the better, more consistent starter. Also, Gibson generally goes at least 6 innings with a chance to go 6+ or 7 innings in a start. Odorizzi does not. 6 innings max, usually 5 or 5+. Huge difference on your bullpen usage. 

After a nice two month mirage, Odorizzi is very much as he was last year. Grind through 5 innings. Throw 100 pitches. 2-3 ER. Not terrible. But not worth the $$.


#96 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 02:01 PM

 

After a nice two month mirage, Odorizzi is very much as he was last year. Grind through 5 innings. Throw 100 pitches. 2-3 ER. Not terrible. But not worth the $$.

I agree entirely. That's who he is, and who he's likely to continue to be in the future. Nothing wrong with that, but a #4 type starter at best. Gibson has a higher present and a higher ceiling.  


#97 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 02:25 PM

After a nice two month mirage, Odorizzi is very much as he was last year. Grind through 5 innings. Throw 100 pitches. 2-3 ER. Not terrible. But not worth the $$.

Oy!

Maybe, in the spirit of the original post, there is a buyer for him somewhere. :)