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Should the twins be sellers at the deadline?

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#41 Sconnie

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:04 AM

There is close to a zero percent chance both of them take the QO, which is what gives the Twins leverage as both try to negotiate a long-term deal with another team that has to lose a draft pick.

And if they both (amazingly) take the offer, your starting rotation is solid, if unspectacular... and all you take is a bit of a beating on payroll in a year when payroll will be increasing anyway due to the previous year's success.

It's pretty much a no-brainer.

QO should around 18 mil? On the free market you’d sign either for 10 to 12 mil per year? So you take a 12 or so mil beating.... they can find 12 mil in any particular season pretty quickly. Instead of signing a Pineda type for 5th starter, use an internal option, and non-tender Adrianza in favor of Arráez, Gordon, Astudillo, or just not resign Castro and go with Astudillo as the placeholder for Rortvedt.

If I’m doing anything at the trade deadline, it’s trading prospects for a starter with team control, like Yankees did in the offseason Sheffield for Paxton. That makes this whole exercise null. One move at the deadline changes the narrative, and flips this discussion on its head. I’m keeping my eye on Griffin Canning of the Angels, as one name that popped out for me. I’m certainly open to others.

Number 2 is trading for one or two high end reliever(s) on an expiring contract.

Perez and his one very effective pitch plus two very good relievers makes for a decent to good bullpen. If a couple of question marks turn into periods or exclamation points (Littell, Duffey, Magill) it could be a dang good bullpen.

Edited by Sconnie, 23 June 2019 - 07:30 AM.

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#42 birdwatcher

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:32 AM

 

I applaud this outside the box thinking.  While like virtually all Twins fans I have loved this season, I still wonder if the idea of selling high might be a reasonable strategy for building a truly dominant team over the first half of the next decade.  The extensions to Polanco and Kepler look brilliant, but I doubt that this current team has much post- season promise?  I think selling high on players seemingly exceeding expectations, like Odorrizi and Cron, and Schoop who has produced results similar to his 2017 all-star year but only controllable this year, should be used to build a truly dominant team for the next 3-5 years.  A low revenue, small market franchise has to think very broadly, and creatively to establish competitive teams, and can probably only succeed in a high low cyclical manner.

 I have generally been encouraged to observe Levine and Falvey as they act with thoughtful data-driven ways to build our beloved Twins.

 

 

Thoughtful first post, hope you keep contributing. However, I'm not on board with your idea, especially regarding Cron and Odo. There are smarter ways to shorten the inevitable cycles and compress the high/low thing. Trade from surplus. That means you have a replacement you are very highly confident will equal or exceed the production of the asset being sold. If the Twins thought Arraez was capable of stepping in right now and delivering more than Schoop, fine, especially if they viewed Gordon as a step awy from being a productive MLB player. I have my doubts they think that's the case given Schoop's YTD 1.6 WAR. And surely they don't think Rooker, Kirilloff or anyone else can replace Cron's incredible production. 

 

Odo is giving us #2 production. I fail to understand why people seem to think that, just because Odo, Gibson, and Pineda are not signed for 2020, they won't or can't be part of the 2020 plan. My bet is that at least one of them is, and maybe even two.

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#43 BattleYourTailOff

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 08:08 AM

Yes. Sell the team to someone who will sign free agents when they’re leading the majors in June lol
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#44 MMMordabito

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 08:10 AM

This is ... Nevermind, the rest of this post would have violated several rules on the TD Comment Policy.
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#45 Diesel

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 10:03 AM

If you can make the playoffs, you have a shot at winning it all. Guys can get hot.

#46 BattleYourTailOff

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 10:10 AM

If you can make the playoffs, you have a shot at winning it all. Guys can get hot.


That’s how terry ryan thought and look how many championships he won us lol. A good team thinks about the WS seriously before the season is half over. The “chip chair chance” thing is for suckers

#47 Mike Sixel

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 11:12 AM

If things hold steady, they should QO both Odo and Gibson and leverage one into a three year deal.

Very little lost by offering both of those guys ~$18m for a season.


How high do you see the payroll going? I have my doubts both are back. One? Probably.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#48 spycake

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 01:27 PM

I applaud this outside the box thinking. While like virtually all Twins fans I have loved this season, I still wonder if the idea of selling high might be a reasonable strategy for building a truly dominant team over the first half of the next decade. The extensions to Polanco and Kepler look brilliant, but I doubt that this current team has much post- season promise? I think selling high on players seemingly exceeding expectations, like Odorrizi and Cron, and Schoop who has produced results similar to his 2017 all-star year but only controllable this year, should be used to build a truly dominant team for the next 3-5 years. A low revenue, small market franchise has to think very broadly, and creatively to establish competitive teams, and can probably only succeed in a high low cyclical manner.
I have generally been encouraged to observe Levine and Falvey as they act with thoughtful data-driven ways to build our beloved Twins.


Sounds interesting in theory, but nobody is going to give us any pieces that can confidently help build a "truly dominant team in 3-5 years" in return for Odorizzi, Schoop, or Cron right now. You are going to get guys like Smeltzer, Raley, Alcala, Celestino -- interesting guys, could be useful at times, but nothing that's going to "build a truly dominant team" above what our 2019 team is already doing.

Indeed, that's why a lot of us didn't like the Pressly trade -- even before anyone knew we'd be this good in 2019, our 2019 need for Pressly probably outweighed the future benefit of another two 40 FV prospects.
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#49 spycake

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 01:29 PM

How high do you see the payroll going? I have my doubts both are back. One? Probably.


If both Gibson and Odorizzi finish healthy and strong enough to warrant QOs by their performance, then we've probably done well enough that we can afford to push our payroll up a little higher to accommodate them, if necessary.
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#50 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 02:13 PM

How high do you see the payroll going? I have my doubts both are back. One? Probably.

I only expect one to return but I’d offer the QO to both for leverage.
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#51 Darius

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 02:33 PM

Im not too concerned about the expiring contracts. Who among them are that good?

Was anyone worried about losing Odorizzi 6 months ago? He is, and will continue to, come back down to earth.

We can find a kid like Kohl Stewart to be the 5th starter. He can provide what Pineda has been (5 runs to the hapless Royals in 4 IP isn’t s high bar) for much cheaper.

Schoop has been awful for a month now. I’d rather play Arraez over him anyway.

Cron is having a good year. But, he had a good year last and found himself packing his bags. Some of his success is rooted in hitting in the heart of a great lineup. I’m not at all worried about replacing it, and 1st base defense is hardly a high priority.

All of this said, I’m not so sure this is as crazy as it sounds. Deep down, after seeing these last couple of weeks, I think we all know this team is going to get blown away in a playoff series with Houston or the Yankees. Hell, Cleveland might bump us from the playoffs all together. We flat out don’t have the pitching. Berrios is the only guy that can be trusted at this point. Even Rogers is crumbling and we still aren’t to the All-Star break. It’s not looking promising. We watched the one-and-dones for years under Gardy. Do whatever it takes to get this thing over the hump, whether this year, next year, or two years from now. After that, we’ll be rebuilding this thing again. Buxton and Berrios will leave for giant $, likely one of Kepler and Polanco once their contracts expire. This team has never shown a willingness to have multiple significant deals on the roster at any given time. This will not be a lengthy window.

Edited by Darius, 23 June 2019 - 02:36 PM.


#52 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 06:17 PM

 

Cron is having a good year. But, he had a good year last and found himself packing his bags. Some of his success is rooted in hitting in the heart of a great lineup. I’m not at all worried about replacing it, and 1st base defense is hardly a high priority.

Cron is only arb 3 next season. It's pretty much a no-brainer to bring him back for the $8-10m it will take to retain him.

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#53 akmanak

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:11 PM

I like it. Best record that we have had in a long time. Dump everyone and than complain about it.
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#54 Han Joelo

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:58 AM

 

Im not too concerned about the expiring contracts. Who among them are that good?

Was anyone worried about losing Odorizzi 6 months ago? He is, and will continue to, come back down to earth.

We can find a kid like Kohl Stewart to be the 5th starter. He can provide what Pineda has been (5 runs to the hapless Royals in 4 IP isn’t s high bar) for much cheaper.

Schoop has been awful for a month now. I’d rather play Arraez over him anyway.

Cron is having a good year. But, he had a good year last and found himself packing his bags. Some of his success is rooted in hitting in the heart of a great lineup. I’m not at all worried about replacing it, and 1st base defense is hardly a high priority.

All of this said, I’m not so sure this is as crazy as it sounds. Deep down, after seeing these last couple of weeks, I think we all know this team is going to get blown away in a playoff series with Houston or the Yankees. Hell, Cleveland might bump us from the playoffs all together. We flat out don’t have the pitching. Berrios is the only guy that can be trusted at this point. Even Rogers is crumbling and we still aren’t to the All-Star break. It’s not looking promising. We watched the one-and-dones for years under Gardy. Do whatever it takes to get this thing over the hump, whether this year, next year, or two years from now. After that, we’ll be rebuilding this thing again. Buxton and Berrios will leave for giant $, likely one of Kepler and Polanco once their contracts expire. This team has never shown a willingness to have multiple significant deals on the roster at any given time. This will not be a lengthy window.

This made me wonder, but I feel like in listening to the games, Cron is consistently digging out less than accurate throws to first base.  I'd say a vacuum at first base is one of those things you think you won't miss until its gone.

 

Bottom line to all this talk is that any sign of giving up on this season would be a mortal blow to the mojo of this group, as it would any group.  It was trading away O-Hudson that kiboshed that Twins team a decade or so ago, and set the stage for Santana wanting out.

 

Now's the time to double down, not fold.

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#55 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:42 AM

This made me wonder, but I feel like in listening to the games, Cron is consistently digging out less than accurate throws to first base.  I'd say a vacuum at first base is one of those things you think you won't miss until its gone.
 
Bottom line to all this talk is that any sign of giving up on this season would be a mortal blow to the mojo of this group, as it would any group.  It was trading away O-Hudson that kiboshed that Twins team a decade or so ago, and set the stage for Santana wanting out.
 
Now's the time to double down, not fold.

First paragraph: I agree completely. Good defense at first base is not missed until it’s gone. That’s why I think the talk of Sano moving to first is misguided. For how much Rocco moves players around the field to different positions, notice that Sano has not played a single inning at first base yet during Rocco’s tenure.

Second & third paragraphs: You are not responding to what the original poster wrote. It’s possible you didn’t even read the post. But at least you are not being smug and condescending about it.
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#56 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:33 AM

I could see a scenario where Schoop is not viewed as a starting 2B for the playoffs... Just like last year when he was pushed to the bench in Milwaukee. It's risky because they're trading away depth who's capable of playing MLB baseball.

#57 Han Joelo

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 09:15 PM

 

Second & third paragraphs: You are not responding to what the original poster wrote. It’s possible you didn’t even read the post. But at least you are not being smug and condescending about it.

 

 Original Post Title (I've triple checked to make sure I didn't accidentally get crossed up:

 

Should The Twins Be Sellers At The Deadline?

 

My answer from above, with its breathless hyperbole still intact:

 

 

Bottom line to all this talk is that any sign of giving up on this season would be a mortal blow to the mojo of this group, as it would any group.It was trading away O-Hudson that kiboshed that Twins team a decade or so ago, and set the stage for Santana wanting out.

Now's the time to double down, not fold.

 

 

Sorry for any confusion.  Good day to you sir, or ma'am!


#58 DocBauer

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:15 PM

Thoughtful first post, hope you keep contributing. However, I'm not on board with your idea, especially regarding Cron and Odo. There are smarter ways to shorten the inevitable cycles and compress the high/low thing. Trade from surplus. That means you have a replacement you are very highly confident will equal or exceed the production of the asset being sold. If the Twins thought Arraez was capable of stepping in right now and delivering more than Schoop, fine, especially if they viewed Gordon as a step awy from being a productive MLB player. I have my doubts they think that's the case given Schoop's YTD 1.6 WAR. And surely they don't think Rooker, Kirilloff or anyone else can replace Cron's incredible production. 
 
Odo is giving us #2 production. I fail to understand why people seem to think that, just because Odo, Gibson, and Pineda are not signed for 2020, they won't or can't be part of the 2020 plan. My bet is that at least one of them is, and maybe even two.


This!

I like so many points made here but am focusing on Bird's.

Actually surprised this thread has gone this far, and I say that with total respect. We have one of the best teams in MLB, YOUNG talent is finally emerging, and we have the depth in the system to make a couple of moves to augment thjs team for a shot without compromising the future and we want to put why? Because we might lose and not actually win the whole thing? That's crazy! EVERY SINGLE YEAR only ONE TEAM wins it all. Period.

Part of the reason payroll was scaled back, it's on record, was to have the ability to make moves. NOT going to begin another debate on this subject, but it's the truth, and there is probably financial freedom to further extend for a winning team with butts in the seats. But that is an entirely different arguement for another time and place. And frankly, one I'm very tired of.

Cron is a cheap no-brainer.

Unless I am just losing my mind, there is additional payroll, even small, with Hughes coming off the books next season. (Every dollar counts). As much as I really like the guy, I'm betting Schoop is gone. (There are viable options available). Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda are not signed. I get it. But unless the market suddenly goes north again, can we really not afford to re-sign two of them?

I like these guys and am not blasting them! But let's just look at reality. Gibson has had some ups and downs, unfortunately, this season. But he is a nice rotation piece. But would he break any bank at this point? Odorizzi has had a solid career, and is having his best year ever. Does this suddenly make him a $20M+? Maybe. Again, the market. Despite a bad game the other day, Pineda is solid and has had a nice,sometimes good career. He's looked good thus far comjng back from surgery. Does he get a big payday as a result?

I am not saying against making a big move to add to the roster/staff. But to say we have only Berrios and Perez and nothing else for 2020 is just misguided.

Unless we DO make a major rotation move, I would fully expect 2 of 3 of Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda back next season.
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#59 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 09:52 AM

‘CCO guys talking about the possibility of needing to include some starting players in possible trade packages.

The names of Sano, Schoop, Arraez were tossed around, as well as the possibility of a current pitcher heading into free agency, but they didn’t name names among the pitchers.
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#60 jz7233

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 10:06 AM

 

Im not too concerned about the expiring contracts. Who among them are that good?

Was anyone worried about losing Odorizzi 6 months ago? He is, and will continue to, come back down to earth.

We can find a kid like Kohl Stewart to be the 5th starter. He can provide what Pineda has been (5 runs to the hapless Royals in 4 IP isn’t s high bar) for much cheaper.

Schoop has been awful for a month now. I’d rather play Arraez over him anyway.

Cron is having a good year. But, he had a good year last and found himself packing his bags. Some of his success is rooted in hitting in the heart of a great lineup. I’m not at all worried about replacing it, and 1st base defense is hardly a high priority.

All of this said, I’m not so sure this is as crazy as it sounds. Deep down, after seeing these last couple of weeks, I think we all know this team is going to get blown away in a playoff series with Houston or the Yankees. Hell, Cleveland might bump us from the playoffs all together. We flat out don’t have the pitching. Berrios is the only guy that can be trusted at this point. Even Rogers is crumbling and we still aren’t to the All-Star break. It’s not looking promising. We watched the one-and-dones for years under Gardy. Do whatever it takes to get this thing over the hump, whether this year, next year, or two years from now. After that, we’ll be rebuilding this thing again. Buxton and Berrios will leave for giant $, likely one of Kepler and Polanco once their contracts expire. This team has never shown a willingness to have multiple significant deals on the roster at any given time. This will not be a lengthy window.

I am not sure Stewart or Littell can have success in the major league. I do think 1st base defense matters a lot in baseball games.

Edited by jz7233, 21 July 2019 - 10:07 AM.