The Twins are currently having a terrific season.They are significantly exceeding most expectations and unless the Indians get very hot and the wheels come off the Twins machine, they should qualify for the playoffs.
So why am I going to suggest that the Twins be sellers at the deadline? Here are a few reasons.
1) The current make-up their roster.Twenty % of the current team will be free agents after this season, including 60% of the current starting rotation.Those numbers go higher if the Twins do not pick up the options on Cruz and Perez.Thus it is hard to image the Twins re-signing the majority of these players, so there will be holes to fill next season - especially with starting pitching.
2) The Twins pipeline for starting pitching looks pretty weak right now.Three of their top starting pitching prospects - Gonsalvez, Romero and Graterol - have all had troubling seasons - due to injuries or otherwise.Could Stewart step up?Possibly.But it is hard to envision multiple arms from the system stepping into key starting roles next season.
3) As great as the Twins have been this season, can they compete in the playoffs?Can they beat two of the 3 AL "big boys" (Astros, Red Sox and those !$@$@# Yankees) with their current roster?I know they can (and should) add some pitching at the deadline, but at what cost - especially if those players are rentals?Trading some high-end prospects for arms that are not only MLB ready, but post season ready AND are not rentals is going to be tough to do.
4) If a team - say the Brewers or Cubs - came to the Twins with an offer of two solid MLB ready arms (one starter and one reliever) who are under team control for a year or two who might not be post-season ready, for Gibson or Odorizzi, the Twins should think long and hard about pulling the trigger on this.
As much fun as this season has been so far, I certainly hope the twins F.O. does not lose site of the near term.
I'm typically a fan of out of the box thinking but I'm going to counter your points in an effort to put it back in the box.
1. You go with percentage which can look bigger and scarier than what is really happening. I can counter that 20% with "Hey, 80% of this roster is coming back!" The actual total is 5 (3 starters). Here they are by name. Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda, Schoop and Castro.
Let's say we all lose all 5. It's quite possible that the replacements for Schoop and Castro are already on the roster. I think they are. On the mound it's a little more challenging, I doubt we will pick up 3 free agents to fill the spots, but we could sign one free agent, make an off-season trade for another and make a trade this deadline for another. Remember we acquired Odorizzi for our 20th ranked prospect.
Saying that we should sell because we will lose 5 guys after the World Series is over, disrespects or ignores the other 20 guys who ARE returning and the 25 guys who will be participating in the playoffs.
2. I would never advocate giving a rookie a roster spot on opening day. When you do that, you commit a roster spot to that rookie and you have no chance to fix it because your depth is no longer depth. Rookie pitchers for 2020 should start in the minors and be depth in case the guys (you trade for or sign) don't work out or get hurt. They will get their chance when injury occurs and that's when we will find out if a disappointing 2019 is a problem for 2020. I have no idea what to expect of Gonsalves, Romero or Graterol in 2020. I also have no idea what to expect of Stewart, Smeltzer, Poppen, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Enlow, Balazovic or any other pitcher in the organization... but we got time to find out.
3. I will continually shake my head at this argument. We lose on paper and therefore have no chance so why bother. This argument is made by many and it holds no water historically. There is absolutely no evidence that the best roster on paper wins it all while the weaker teams on paper drift away on a hopeless boat. The team playing the best baseball wins it all. The margins are thin, so thin that if you did a poll on who has the best roster on paper, you would have multiple teams getting votes. Steve Pearce can win the MVP while Mookie Betts hits .210.
4. The Twins offense is for real, it's deep with plenty of options... The front office should support this offense in any way possible. The only sensible path to take is augmentation.
However, Yeah, I typically like out of the box thinking and applaud yours.
A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".
President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club
Strike Zone Automation Advocate
I'm not a starting 9 guy!!!