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Article: Potential Prospect Cost in Twins Trades

minnesota twins trevor larnach brusdar graterol madison bumgarner
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#41 SarasotaBill

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 01:30 PM

I hope any trade includes quantity instead of quality prospects.

 

Trade 2-3 2nd tier prospects instead of one 1st tier prospect.

 

The Twins roster is going to get expensive (especially SP) and they need low cost replacements.

 

My 1st tier untouchable list:

Lewis

Kirilloff

Balazovic

Graterol

Duran

Enlow

 

1st Tier Nearly untouchable

Larnach

Javier

Rooker

Arraez

Rortvedt

 

 


#42 spycake

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 01:35 PM

 

I don't disagree with anything you said. Sano is a tough guy to value. I was trying to frame it in terms similar to the Machado trade last year (also a rental). The Machado deal was headlined by a 50 FV, back-of-the-top-100-list player in Diaz. Someone not unlike Larnach. Now, I personally think Sano > Larnach/Diaz or someone of that ilk, even if he only has 2 years of team control left. And the fact that Sano can play 1B (which the Nationals need) would allow them to still make a big run at resigning Rendon this offseason. It would also help the Nationals try to contend next year, whereas a prospect might not play right away.

 

But now that I think about it more, my suggestion is obviously undervaluing Doolittle. Sano+Duran is probably close enough for just Rendon, but the Nats would need another really good piece to include Doolittle.

It's an interesting idea, to be sure.

 

The thing about Machado was, the Orioles had very little leverage. Zero chance to re-sign him, and zero need/interest too. Potential suitors could start out just beating the value of the comp pick. If the Machado deal is your valuation basis of your offer for Rendon, Washington is very likely to turn it down, I think.

 

And I'm not sure if 2 years of Sano at 1B (and with arb-2 and arb-3 salaries based on him playing 3B) brings that much value either. Find another Adams, or Kendrick, or Cron? They don't really need to spend assets like rental Rendon or even Doolittle to get their 2020-2021 first baseman.


#43 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 01:53 PM

 

Teams will overpay for playoff caliber starters and late inning relievers with team control. Larnach will not be enough. He loses value as a corner player and he hasn’t shown great power in high A.

 

Larnach is a 22 year old in the most pitcher-friendly professional league there is.He's 4th in SLG, He's 1st in doubles, tied for 20th in homers (and it should be noted, only 3 guys have more than 8 homers; one big series and he pops up to top 10 easily).He's leading the league in average (one of only 4 guys above .300), and is third in OBP.

 

This might be heretical, but I'm increasingly open to the idea that Larnach is on a par with Kiriloff.Kiriloff's OPS+ of 168 as a 20 year old in A+ is definitely better than Larnach's 150 as a 22 year old in the same league, but if Kiriloff will get you a much better return, I'm ok with trading Kiriloff to keep Larnach.


#44 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:01 PM

 

Both Gibson and Pineda are without question trending in the right direction. I don't think a 2 game sample size on Gibson is at all fair either. WHIP can be all over the place in that number of games. I'm a bit concerned bout Perez. He is trending in the wrong direction though I do think he could be a solution in the pen with his 2 good pitches. 

 

I do think adding a starter makes sense, but I'm not really a fan of aiming low. I'd want a guy like Matt Boyd, Syndergard, etc. 

 

Agree with this.Strip out Gibson's first two starts, when he was still trying to gain weight/strength, and here's what you get;

 

11 starts, 3.38 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 9.4 k/9, 1.6 bb/9, completely reasonable .287 babip and 74.4% lob.

 

That FIP puts him at 20th in the league, just behind Greinke, while the xFIP puts him 7th, just behind Strasburg, and ahead of deGrom.Not too shabby for a 3rd starter.

 

Even if you don't strip out those first two starts, Gibson is 11th in xFIP; Berrios is 38th and Odorizzi is 44th.

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#45 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:14 PM

I hope any trade includes quantity instead of quality prospects.
 
Trade 2-3 2nd tier prospects instead of one 1st tier prospect.
 
The Twins roster is going to get expensive (especially SP) and they need low cost replacements.
 
My 1st tier untouchable list:
Lewis
Kirilloff
Balazovic
Graterol
Duran
Enlow
 
1st Tier Nearly untouchable
Larnach
Javier
Rooker
Arraez
Rortvedt


Consider it from the other end.

What kind of prospects would you want the Twins to pursue? Quantity or quality?

I am in the quality camp.

#46 SarasotaBill

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 03:00 PM

Last year the Twins got quantity prospects for their players.


#47 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 03:52 PM

Last year the Twins got quantity prospects for their players.


That really all comes down to the Pressly trade. They received back the preseason 10 and 14 prospects both 40s. There are similarly rated prospects in your quality list.

I would agree that the two trend towards quantity. Everybody has similarly rated prospects. The challenge is that beyond Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol any other team can play in that market.

Pitching is the best trade currency and the untouchable list has four of their best pitching assets. I would hang up and call someone else if I was told those pitching prospects were untouchable. If the Twins want to get a pitcher at the top of the bullpen or rotation it is going to hurt. They will lose quality prospects.

#48 SarasotaBill

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 04:03 PM

Celestino and Alcala are MLB pre-season #15 & #18 Twin prospects and rated 45.

 

50 prospects not on protected list: Thorpe, Gordon, Gonsalves, Baddoo.

 

Plus a number of 45s.

 

Not to re-hash the Ramos-Capps trade but I certainly don't want to repeat it.

 


#49 spycake

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 04:11 PM

Celestino and Alcala are MLB pre-season #15 & #18 Twin prospects and rated 45.

50 prospects not on protected list: Thorpe, Gordon, Gonsalves, Baddoo.

Plus a number of 45s.

Not to re-hash the Ramos-Capps trade but I certainly don't want to repeat it.


Interesting. MLB's list had 27 guys at 45 or above; Fangraphs only had 8.

I've never really check the MLB values before -- are they just inflated overall, compared to Fangraphs?

#50 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 06:28 PM

Interesting. MLB's list had 27 guys at 45 or above; Fangraphs only had 8.
I've never really check the MLB values before -- are they just inflated overall, compared to Fangraphs?


I believe so. MLB is playing to a more general audience and the reality of only a handful of guys in each system projected to be an average major league regular is not going to excite a fan base.

#51 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 06:49 PM

 

I hope any trade includes quantity instead of quality prospects.

 

Trade 2-3 2nd tier prospects instead of one 1st tier prospect.

 

The Twins roster is going to get expensive (especially SP) and they need low cost replacements.

 

My 1st tier untouchable list:

Lewis

Kirilloff

Balazovic

Graterol

Duran

Enlow

 

1st Tier Nearly untouchable

Larnach

Javier

Rooker

Arraez

Rortvedt

 

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#52 Linus

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 06:03 PM

I say all are in play for the right deal as there are areas of surplus. Both Lewis and Kiriloff have strong fellow prospects at their position. As long as we don’t deplete one position area I am fine dealing anyone. Hell we don’t even know if Lewis will end up being the best SS in our system. I’m thinking Javier might be the SS of the future. If you can get a stud controllable pitcher for him go for it



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