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Article: Potential Prospect Cost in Twins Trades

minnesota twins trevor larnach brusdar graterol madison bumgarner
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#1 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:00 PM

As we move closer to July, we also push towards the looming Major League Baseball trade deadline. With the waiver period being removed in 2019, the July 31st deadline is a hard cap on all player acquisition. There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins need to find some pitching help, and the assumption is that the answers will come in the form of a “when” as opposed to an “if.” As names circulate from an acquisition standpoint, it’s fair to wonder what the cost may be.From the outset I think we can safely assume that neither Royce Lewis nor Alex Kirilloff are going anywhere for the Twins. Moving either of the two top prospects, both among the top 10 across baseball, would be monumental. Barring a blockbuster deal including a high caliber player with multiple years of team control it just doesn’t seem to be on the horizon.

We can attempt to glean an idea of what packages may look like by viewing things through the lens of recently made deals. From a top tier starting pitcher standpoint, the Chris Archer deal is a good place to turn:

Pirates get Chris Archer in exchange for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz

Viewing this deal through the lens of Minnesota’s organization, you’re looking at something like Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, and Jordan Balazovic all being sent out. There’s a possibility that Graterol ends up as a reliever, and that’s the biggest evaluation Minnesota needs to make. Larnach looks the part of a legit corner outfield bat, and Balazovic has emerged as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. A return like this would by more focused on nabbing a player like Marcus Stroman or Matt Boyd than it would a rental option. No doubt losing the prospect capital would sting for the Twins, but they’d be targeting a pitcher that can improve the rotation both immediately and in the future.

There isn’t a great blueprint for a top-tier rental pitcher being moved in 2018, but one happened a year earlier:

Dodgers get Yu Darvish in exchange for Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, and Brendon Davis

The further back we go the more complicated it gets to evaluate prospects and returns on an equal playing field. Even in a rental situation, there needs to be at least one top 100 inclusion if the expectation is a number two starter. It’s Graterol that’s likely the coveted get, although there’s an outside chance he could be changed out for Larnach. Wander Javier may be enough of an add in on his own to get the job done, or a pair of Jhoan Duran and Nick Gordon could make sense. This is the grouping that will need to be explored most if Minnesota is going to make a push for San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner. There are no guarantees he’s in a Twins uniform past 2019, and losing some serious future depth will hurt, but if it pushes the postseason performance to the next level it could be worth it.

Relievers are a fickle bunch and looking at the 2019 free agent crop is an absolute minefield. Getting the right guy will come down to scouting, but needing a high-leverage arm may not be cheap either:

Indians get Brad Hand and Adam Cimber in exchange for Francisco Mejia

Although Cimber posted great numbers with the Padres in 2018 this move was about Hand, his elite ability as a closer, and being under team control for up to the next three seasons. Cleveland had to part with their top prospect and a consensus top 30 player across baseball. Short of netting Felipe Vasquez from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota should be able to improve without going down this path. Both Jeurys Familia and Zack Britton were had for lesser returns and that’s the pool the Twins likely want to wade in. Some combination of Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Blayne Enlow, and Akil Baddoo should be an enticing group to an opposing team.

There’re a couple of takeaways for potential moves the Twins could make, and they’ll need to thin out a group that has more 40-man options than the team can accommodate. As the big-league club moves into a winning window, turning some of the depth into usable major league pieces is a logical decision.

If I had to make a couple of assumptions regarding pieces that will be moved here’s what I’m going with:

The Twins will make three trades, or acquire a total of three players, in the form of a starter and two relievers. The starter will be good enough to act as the third best option, with both relievers intended to operate in high leverage.

Across the trades that Minnesota makes, no fewer than five prospects will be dealt. The starter is probably going to cost at least two players with the potential for a third, and that could leave the relievers eating up another two or three bodies.

Trevor Larnach would seem the most likely bat to be moved. He’s got a safer floor than Brent Rooker, and he looks the part of a guy who should be no worse than an every day big leaguer. I’d guess Derek Falvey wants to hang onto Graterol if possible, making the Oregon State product the next most valuable asset. If there’s a pitcher dealt outside of Graterol, one of the duo acquired last season (Jhoan Duran/Jorge Alcala) is a good bet.

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#2 jkcarew

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:28 PM

Could Pittsburgh have possibly been fleeced worse than what Tampa did to them in the Chris Archer deal?
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#3 operation mindcrime

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:28 PM

I'd be fine with trading any of Stewart, Gonsalves, Wade or Rooker!!!
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#4 Doomtints

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:29 PM

I listed in another thread the teams who have pitching but have major gaps in hitting. Beyond that, there are two additional scenarios where a team could be willing to give up a pitcher and the Twins won't have to give up that much:

 

- A team trying to dump salary because they're not playing like they expected

- A 3-team trade can unload some of the risk onto another team who wants to fill a gap but can't do it on their own

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#5 operation mindcrime

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:31 PM

Since I'm unable to like or quote as usual. I wanted to say I like jkcarew's comment at 10:28!

#6 adorduan

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:55 PM

 

Could Pittsburgh have possibly been fleeced worse than what Tampa did to them in the Chris Archer deal?

there were plenty here on Twins Daily that wanted to give up a lot for Archer...

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#7 jorgenswest

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 05:03 PM

Teams will overpay for playoff caliber starters and late inning relievers with team control. Larnach will not be enough. He loses value as a corner player and he hasn’t shown great power in high A.

The best prospect currency is pitching, catchers, shortstops and center fielders. Let’s hope that Graterol returns and pitches really well so he is a top trade asset. Let’s hope that Lewis heats up. Let’s hope that Kirilloff gets healthy and displays awesome power for a corner player. The top three assets that might set the Twins apart from the trade competition are not at their top value right now.
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#8 Doomtints

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 05:14 PM

 

there were plenty here on Twins Daily that wanted to give up a lot for Archer...

 

Whoever wrote the first piece stating Archer would be a good guy to trade for has real power because it's impossible to slice that and not find it to be complete nonsense. I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say it was Keith Law.

Edited by Doomtints, 18 June 2019 - 05:21 PM.

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#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 05:47 PM

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.
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#10 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 05:51 PM

I'd be fine with trading any of Stewart, Gonsalves, Wade or Rooker!!!


Of those, maybe only Rooker has real value right now.
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#11 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 05:54 PM

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.


This is a GREAT comment. I stayed away from post hype type inclusions, but the two most obvious are Romero and Gordon. Could certainly see either being moved.
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#12 Aerodeliria

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 06:01 PM

 

I'd be fine with trading any of Stewart, Gonsalves, Wade or Rooker!!!

With that said, at the moment I think Stewart and Wade look like Dollar Tree items to me. Gonsalves maybe a step up and Rooker probably another step up, but they all could be part of a package deal.


#13 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 06:05 PM

I listed in another thread the teams who have pitching but have major gaps in hitting. Beyond that, there are two additional scenarios where a team could be willing to give up a pitcher and the Twins won't have to give up that much:

- A team trying to dump salary because they're not playing like they expected
- A 3-team trade can unload some of the risk onto another team who wants to fill a gap but can't do it on their own

Speaking of salary dumps, I might think eating Gregory Polanco’s 28Mish salary over the next two years (including buyouts) might interest the criminally cheap Pirates.

#14 RaoulDuke

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 06:42 PM

 

This is a GREAT comment. I stayed away from post hype type inclusions, but the two most obvious are Romero and Gordon. Could certainly see either being moved.

I can see Sano being in this discussion as well, his value is down some but the potential is there.

 

Romero had me giddy last year, I really didn't think he would fall off so far.I wouldn't mind getting value out of him now before he reaches full Alex Meyer level.

 

Gordon is on the upswing finally, and there is middle infield depth in the system.I think he is most likely moved.

 

 

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#15 Darius

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 06:43 PM

I, in my lifetime, have never been concerned about the Twins making mistakes at the deadline (other than sitting on their hands).

By all means, get some pitching. But, proceed with caution, here. Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems to me that nearly every prospect of note has kind of bottomed-out in terms of value right now. Whether due to injuries (Baddoo, Kiriloff, Graterol, Javier, etc.) or performance (Lewis, Gordon, etc.).

#16 Thrylos

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 06:49 PM

I would not hold onto anyone for the right return right now.

 

For example, if the Twins were to package Syndergaard and Diaz,I would not mind sending both Lewis and Kirilloff.

 

There is an opportunity cost that has to come into the equation.No prospect is a sure thing.Ask Delmon Young if you don't believe me.

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#17 jkcarew

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 07:29 PM

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.


The moral is that you’d hope your FO is smart enough to protect the players that are going to be the better players...in the case of Glasgow and Meadows...on the verge of being major league all-stars...instead of protecting the guys that are the latest shiniest objects. Example of one organization being way better at this than another. Concur on Arraez...not enough power, speed, or defensive prowess to be too attractive.

#18 DocBauer

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 07:39 PM

Perhaps I'm short sighted, optimistic, or crazy, but when I look at the rotation I see a top 3 that is probably as good as anyone's, unless what we are seeing from Odorizzi is NOT maturation and the Johnson touch but rather, some short term deal with the devil. Can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I think Perez is just going through a rough patch. The velocity and SO are still there. He seems to be a victim lately of a poor play or one bad pitch. I'm OK with Pineda and feel he's getting better and stronger.

Don't get me wrong, a major rotation piece would be great! But unless it is MAJOR acquisition, I'm just all in on a couple of RP.

To that end, I'd make a list of untouchables that would include Kiriloff, Lewis, Graterol and Balazovic. I'd like to include Thorpe there, but won't get greasy. I'd make everyone else available. I really think the depth of talent is there throughout the system for a pair of quality arms to be obtained.

Again, you present me with a real, true top of the rotation piece we have a different conversation taking place.
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#19 Thrylos

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 07:51 PM

 

Perhaps I'm short sighted, optimistic, or crazy, but when I look at the rotation I see a top 3 that is probably as good as anyone's, unless what we are seeing from Odorizzi is NOT maturation and the Johnson touch but rather, some short term deal with the devil. Can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I think Perez is just going through a rough patch. The velocity and SO are still there. He seems to be a victim lately of a poor play or one bad pitch. I'm OK with Pineda and feel he's getting better and stronger.

 

If you look closer, the Twins really have only 2 good starters this season.

 

Against teams with >=.500 records this season (ranked by WHIP) :

 

Berrios: 1.96 ERA, 0.702 WHIP, 10 K/9, 5.8 K/BB
Odorizzi: 2.01 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.5 K/BB

 

Pineda: 5.04 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.8 K/BB
Gibson: 1.80 ERA, 1,600 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB (only 2 games)
Perez: 4.98 ERA, 1.708 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB

 

This is why they really need an ace to be relevant this post season, in addition to a couple of bullpen arms...

 

 

 

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#20 highlander

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 12:18 AM

Get Vasquez and/or Iglesias! That is all.



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