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Tyler Jay Traded to Reds

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#21 rdehring

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 02:35 PM

Interesting that it was cash.Aren't the Reds one of the teams that the Twins may look to when finalizing that deal for a good, youngish reliever?If so, one would think that Jay could have been a throw-in on such of a deal.   

 

I guess we can hope that this creates good will that the Reds will remember next month, or next week, when talking about a transaction we Twins fans can get excited about.

Edited by rdehring, 10 June 2019 - 02:36 PM.

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#22 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 02:38 PM

I don't recall a single person on here calling for him. In fact I don't recall anyone calling for a non pitcher at all


Several people here wanted Benintendi on the day of the draft.
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#23 MMMordabito

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 02:50 PM

 

It wasn't me, but I seem to recall several Benintendi fans around here; some people swear by the Golden Spike Award winners, and good lord, after seeing the past winners, maybe we all should, the odds don't get much better than that:

 

https://en.wikipedia...en_Spikes_Award

 

Well, that's just freakin' great, because now those odds favor the White Sox ...:banghead:

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#24 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:02 PM

I don't recall a single person on here calling for him. In fact I don't recall anyone calling for a non pitcher at all


There were several fans of him on this site. They may not be active anymore, but there certainly were people clamoring for him.
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#25 markos

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:11 PM

So, I just wasted the past hour reading through past threads on the 2015 draft. Interesting (and humbling) to reread what everyone one (included myself!) said about Jay and the others available. 

 

My own comment about Benintendi:

http://twinsdaily.co...tendi/?p=344241

In many ways, Benintendi was another "miss" for me because I didn't foresee the flyball/launch angle/power revolution that was going to overtake baseball.

 

Interesting to read that thread and the Ben Revere comps he was getting.

 

Other draft pick threads from that day:

http://twinsdaily.co...-sixth-overall/

http://twinsdaily.co...ad-cheat-sheet/

 

Edited by markos, 10 June 2019 - 03:11 PM.

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#26 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:16 PM

Decade by decade, that Golden Spikes list became a better weather vane. I was around when the Twins drafted Oddibe McDowell. Oh, and Travis Lee, who refused to sign. No huge loss. Oh, and Jason Varitek, who rejected the Twins out of high school and went to college. Probably even went to classes since he had the brains to turn down the Twins back then.

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#27 markos

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:22 PM

 

I think if anything, this along with guys like Eades and Wimmers show that there's no such thing as a "high floor" when drafting pitchers. More often than not, just draft the guys with the most potential because the percent chance that a "safe" player might make it compared to a "risky" player probably has a difference in the single digits.

From rereading a lot of the draft threads from 2015, there were a lot of people that liked Jay specifically because of his upside. He was a risky profile, not someone I would put under the label of a "high floor" or "safe" player. In many ways, his "floor" as a reliever was more as a hedge for his perceived risk, not as his value in and of itself.

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#28 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:31 PM

I think if anything, this along with guys like Eades and Wimmers show that there's no such thing as a "high floor" when drafting pitchers. More often than not, just draft the guys with the most potential because the percent chance that a "safe" player might make it compared to a "risky" player probably has a difference in the single digits.


I agree with your statement. Adding in that talking about a floor for any minor leaguer is kind of silly. The floor will always be flaming out in the minors, which is most likely going to happen with Jay. Happens to tons of players. Baseball is hard.
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#29 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:36 PM

I agree with your statement. Adding in that talking about a floor for any minor leaguer is kind of silly. The floor will always be flaming out in the minors, which is most likely going to happen with Jay. Happens to tons of players. Baseball is hard.


I think this is understood though.
I think generally the term floor means a player's most likely minimum profile if they actually make it to MLB, not their ABSOLUTE lowest possible profile.
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#30 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:43 PM

BA on Jay when we drafted him: “The pitcher more scouts seem to believe in than ever is Illinois lefthander Tyler Jay. It is ironic to say the least that it’s the college closer in Jay—who leads the nation in ERA and ranks fifth in strikeout-to-walk ratio—whom most scouts believe can start, and the two starters scouts see as big league impact relievers in Fulmer and Tate. “If you’re going to take a short college pitcher,” one scouting director said, “and you compare Jay to Fulmer, Jay does it easier, does it cleaner. He throws as hard (92-96 mph), maybe not as firm as Tate but he’s no slouch. He has as good or better breaking ball (a devastating mid-80s slide piece). He’s shown a good changeup. He’s been extended. He’s as athletic. And he’s lefthanded.”

 

I remember hoping that Tate fell to us and sort of a mixed feeling toward the group of college pitchers, all had flaws. Buehler looks perfect in hindsight. But I remember discussing Fulmer, and some HS arms like Allard and Aiken and Bickford. I honestly don't remember much discussions or rumors for the Twins taking a position player although there was a rumor that we'd take C Stephenson. 

 

This draft also hurt b/c we lost a pick for signing Santana and then our next pick didn't sign. Blankenhorn might be a player. Wade might become a 4th OF type. 

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#31 drivlikejehu

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:48 PM

 

I think this is understood though.
I think generally the term floor means a player's most likely minimum profile if they actually make it to MLB, not their ABSOLUTE lowest possible profile.

 

Well that "floor" is really the same for everyone, too, 25th man on the roster.

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#32 notoriousgod71

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:51 PM

Fun fact: In 2015, Terry Ryan was a guest speaker at the Class A High School Baseball Tournament banquet right before the draft.

 

My nephew's team was participating and afterwards I pleaded with Terry Ryan to draft "anybody but Tyler Jay."

 

Ryan dismissed me... and drafted Jay a few days later.

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#33 notoriousgod71

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 03:58 PM

 

Fun fact: In 2015, Terry Ryan was a guest speaker at the Class A High School Baseball Tournament banquet right before the draft.

 

My nephew's team was participating and afterwards I pleaded with Terry Ryan to draft "anybody but Tyler Jay."

 

Ryan dismissed me... and drafted Jay a few days later.

 

 

To be fair, I was clamoring for Carson Fulmer, who has probably turned out worse.

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#34 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 04:20 PM

Cash considerations you say?That's the perfect tribute to the old regime.

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#35 bunt_vs_the_shift

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 04:25 PM

I understand the emotional reaction about not getting any value out of the #6 pick overall... That said, Jay is not part of the organizations plans. 

 

Shipping out a bunch of other "Jays" who will never be part of the major league plan, is exactly what they should be doing. 

 

Bank some money (even if it's not much) to spend on some guys who can help now and free up opportunities for guys that are in the plans. 

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#36 nicksaviking

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 04:39 PM

Decade by decade, that Golden Spikes list became a better weather vane. I was around when the Twins drafted Oddibe McDowell. Oh, and Travis Lee, who refused to sign. No huge loss. Oh, and Jason Varitek, who rejected the Twins out of high school and went to college. Probably even went to classes since he had the brains to turn down the Twins back then.

Yeah Hunter and Varitek in consecutive picks was/would have been pretty impressive.

Though, then the Twins might have gone Prior over Mauer seven years later.

Also AJ Pierzynski probably never develops so no Nathan/Liriano trade.

Wow, I played revisionist history and talked myself OUT of Jason Varitek? Huh, I did not see that coming when I started this post.
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#37 h2oface

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 04:48 PM

 

More fuel for the argument that maybe focusing on position players at the top of the draft isn't such a crazy idea.

 

Or..... use #1's with a high upside and trade for MLB players right away, before they can turn into what almost all do.........

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#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 04:50 PM

 

I understand the emotional reaction about not getting any value out of the #6 pick overall... That said, Jay is not part of the organizations plans. 

 

Shipping out a bunch of other "Jays" who will never be part of the major league plan, is exactly what they should be doing. 

 

Bank some money (even if it's not much) to spend on some guys who can help now and free up opportunities for guys that are in the plans. 

 

I don't think anyone is arguing otherwise, and you are correct. 

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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#39 birdwatcher

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 05:57 PM

 

Or..... use #1's with a high upside and trade for MLB players right away, before they can turn into what almost all do.........

Lovely theory. 

 

I understand your point, but believe it's not a pragmatic and workable strategy.

 

Not all #1's turn into trash. Teams don't have an opportunity to draft #1's with high upsides in every draft. Examples abound.

 

We're discussing the Tyler Jay draft, where pundits liked the pick but very much questioned whether Jay, or anyone after him in that draft, projected as a guy with "high upside".

 

Holding onto first-rounders is smart and it often leads to fine results. Eventually.

 

The Twin's roster is jammed full of first round picks, even a few of their own, like Gibson, Buxton, and Berrios. We would have gotten squat in return for those players in a trade "right away" in comparison to the production we're getting now.

 

Trading #1's for MLB players right away? Hmmm. Ask the White Sox if they want the James Shields for Fernando Tatis, Jr. trade back. Ask them if they'd take Sale back and return Moncado to Boston. Or if they want to send Eloy Jiminez and Dylan Cease back to the Cubs for Jose Quintana.

Edited by birdwatcher, 10 June 2019 - 06:38 PM.

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#40 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 10:02 PM

 


 

Bank some money (even if it's not much) to spend on some guys who can help now and free up opportunities for guys that are in the plans. 

I'm not sure ownership has ever made a commitment to use money like that. They are willing to spend less when rebuilding but have never shown any commitment to pushing payroll or using 'saved' money in that manner.

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