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Article: Joe Mauer finishes shy of batting title quest

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#1 Parker Hageman

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Posted 02 October 2012 - 11:33 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...ing-title-quest

#2 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 01:25 PM

Looks like pitching Mauer away, more specifically in the Morneau flailing zone, is the way to go. Kind of ironic for a hitter who doesn't pull the ball often.

#3 jm3319

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 02:06 PM

well, he won the batting title for highest average by a mere human this year. Nothing wrong with that

#4 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 05:39 PM

Trout is an android and Cabrera is a cyborg.

#5 ashburyjohn

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Posted 03 October 2012 - 06:38 PM

With all the complaints about the groundouts to second, I wasn't too surprised to hear that he was pulling the ball more.

#6 h2oface

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 12:42 AM

i know that joe does incredibly well hitting with two strikes on him........ but watching all the meatballs down the middle that he takes is painful. since he is soooo good at hitting with two strikes....... it is past time for him to swing for the fence on that first pitch. i still contend that 2009 is not an anomaly, and that should be indicative of what he can do year in and year out.......... no reason that a guy that big with the "perfect swing" can't tweak it and have cabrera and trout numbers. his dad said many times that he would be the next to hit .400........ and he is in his prime. may as well evolve and mature and be better.

#7 jm3319

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 09:01 AM

The terms "perfect Swing" and "evolve and become better" don't exactly work with each other. Face it, Mauer is good for 10-13 homers a year. If you expect more, you're only fooling and disappointing yourself.

#8 nokomismod

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 09:26 AM

i know that joe does incredibly well hitting with two strikes on him........ but watching all the meatballs down the middle that he takes is painful. since he is soooo good at hitting with two strikes....... it is past time for him to swing for the fence on that first pitch. i still contend that 2009 is not an anomaly, and that should be indicative of what he can do year in and year out.......... no reason that a guy that big with the "perfect swing" can't tweak it and have cabrera and trout numbers. his dad said many times that he would be the next to hit .400........ and he is in his prime. may as well evolve and mature and be better.

I would love to see him take a big uppercut swing on strike one more (think Thome), but I don't know if it would screw up his mechanics.

#9 SeanS7921

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 11:52 AM

I guess some users can stop advising Trevor Plouffe was having a better season. Just a 4.9 Offensive WAR +400 OBP and a 319 AVE. Nah, he doesn't hit enough Home Runs and takes too many walks. Tough love man.

#10 fslbaseball

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 12:52 PM

His average is high, his on base percentage is high but he is essentially a singles hitter in a big guy's body. The home runs don't bother me but the doubles do. I would still like to see him higher in the lineup

#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 01:00 PM

Before this season started, Andrew (Twins Fan From Afar) posed the question on his blog about Joe Mauer: "What's a Good Outcome From a Fan's Standpoint"? How he could "earn" his salary while recognizing that a repeat of his 2009 season was highly unlikely.

Andrew posited that a good outcome would be playing in 140 games with 115 at catcher, 35% of base-stealers thrown out; .335 B.A. w/ 50 doubles, 10 or more Home Runs and an OBP of .400.

I basically characterized this as a little better than 2010 (and I do recall a lot of grumbling from some fans during his 2010 season) or as Andrew called it 2010 plus. Of course there were posters for whom those numbers would not be enough (and several posters who wanted to see him catch at least 125 or more), And others like Thrylos said .850 to .900 OPS with a "bunch of doubles" and 140 games.

So it is interesting to compare what happened to what we hoped for. He played in more than 140 games so overall he was healthy but only caught in 76 of them. He may have wanted to catch more and having Doumit helped alleviate the need for him to catch all the time but still, 76 isn't even 1/2 the games. And, when he did catch, he didn't approach throwing out 35% of runners (some portion of that is undoubtedly due to the pitchers but its pretty clear that he still isn't performing particularly well when he is catching.)

He finished above the target on .OBP but below on average but I'd say he met those targets.

And he did hit 10 HR and had 4 triples and 31 doubles. So a total of 45 extra-base hits. In 2010 he had 9 HR, 1 triple and 43 doubles for a total of 53 extra base hits so he is still down on his power numbers from 2010.

And he finished with an .OPS of .861 in 2012 as compared to .871 in 2010. So he did reach the OPS that Thrylos wanted to see although he didn't approach the number of doubles Thrylos probably hoped for.

I wanted to post this somewhere because I find it interesting to keep things in an historical perspective.

Basically it looks to me like Mauer continues to exercise an incredible discipline at the plate but that his overall value has declined because of the fewer games caught. In addition, his power numbers continue to decline. And I'm still not sure what to make of the pretty significant increase in both walks and strikeouts from 2010 to 2012.

Edited by JB_Iowa, 04 October 2012 - 01:03 PM.


#12 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 01:03 PM

Before this season started, Andrew (Twins Fan From Afar) posed the question on his blog about Joe Mauer: "What's a Good Outcome From a Fan's Standpoint"? How he could "earn" his salary while recognizing that a repeat of his 2009 season was highly unlikely.

Andrew posited that a good outcome would be playing in 140 games with 115 at catcher, 35% of base-stealers thrown out; .335 B.A. w/ 50 doubles, 10 or more Home Runs and an OBP of .400.

I basically characterized this as a little better than 2010 (and I do recall a lot of grumbling from some fans during his 2010 season) or as Andrew called it 2010 plus. Of course there were posters for whom those numbers would not be enough (and several posters who wanted to see him catch at least 125 or more), And others like Thrylos said .850 to .900 OPS with a "bunch of doubles" and 140 games.

So it is interesting to compare what happened to what we hoped for. He played in more than 140 games so overall he was healthy but only caught in 76 of them. He may have wanted to catch more and having Doumit helped alleviate the need for him to catch all the time but still, 76 isn't even 1/2 the games. And, when he did catch, he didn't approach throwing out 35% of runners (some portion of that is undoubtedly due to the pitchers but its pretty clear that he still isn't performing particularly well when he is catching.)

He finished above the target on .OBP but below on average but I'd say he met those targets.

And he did hit 10 HR and had 4 triples and 31 doubles. So a total of 45 extra-base hits. In 2010 he had 9 HR, 1 triple and 43 doubles for a total of 53 extra base hits so he is still down on his power numbers from 2010.

And he finished with an .OPS of .861 in 2012 as compared to .871 in 2010. So he did reach the OPS that Thrylos wanted to see although he didn't approach the number of doubles Thrylos hoped for.

I wanted to post this somewhere because I find it interesting to keep things in an historical perspective.

Basically it looks to me like Mauer continues to exercise an incredible discipline at the plate but that his overall value has declined because of the fewer games caught. In addition, his power numbers continue to decline. And I'm still not sure what to make of the pretty significant increase in both walks and strikeouts from 2010 to 2012.


Great stuff, JB! I had forgotten writing that post and the good discussion that ensued.
Andrew Walter
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http://twinsfanfroma...gspot.com<br />Follow me on Twitter: @MNfanfromafar

#13 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 01:37 PM

Let's see if anything changes with Brunasky likely becoming the new pitching coach.

I'm curious since Posey won the NL batting title does it lessen what Mauer did? He did it three times, but just general accomplishment of something that hadn't been done in over 60 years is duplicated by another player 2 years later.

#14 h2oface

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 01:44 PM

mauer's percentage of catching runners stealing has really plummeted this year. because of his lack of enough games played at catcher - if you go to the stats from the mlb homepage and isolate catchers, you won't find him included, as he doesn't qualify............. i found it on his individual stats ...... he is only 9-65 this year .............. 13.8%. not very scary anymore to runners. they are really taking advantage, too. they did the damage this year in only 76 games! (2007 24-45 53.3%, 2008 29-80 36.3%, 2009 19-73 26%, 2010 19-72 26.4%, 2011 (with the mysterious bi-lateral leg weakness) 12-40 30%, 2012 (healthy?) 9-65 13.8%).

Edited by h2oface, 04 October 2012 - 01:47 PM.


#15 h2oface

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 01:50 PM

Let's see if anything changes with Brunasky likely becoming the new pitching coach.

I'm curious since Posey won the NL batting title does it lessen what Mauer did? He did it three times, but just general accomplishment of something that hadn't been done in over 60 years is duplicated by another player 2 years later.


i don't think it lessons what joe did at all - it just adds posey to the club. now lets see if posey does it year in and year out at this level. i like posey a lot. he hits for power too, and this coming off a nasty surgery. pretty fine!

Edited by h2oface, 04 October 2012 - 02:00 PM.


#16 BringBackAJ

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 01:57 PM

JB and Twins Fan From A Far - great job. I could not agree with you more. Basically Mauer's value from his contract was based on him catching a majority of games. Mauer continues to decline in the number of games he is catching. In reality, Mauer is playing more games at other positions than catching. I guess, based on the "experts", that makes him very durable. I don't understand that logic, but others do. In addition, Mauer's power is never going to reach the one year wonder, won't even come close. Mauer is nothing more than a slap hitting singles hitter who does a great job of getting on base. I don't understand how you can keep comparing Mauer to other catchers when in reality he catches less than half the games. If you start comparing Mauer to other 1B and DH players, looks fairly average to me. Just my opinion.

#17 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:00 PM

i know that joe does incredibly well hitting with two strikes on him........ but watching all the meatballs down the middle that he takes is painful. since he is soooo good at hitting with two strikes....... it is past time for him to swing for the fence on that first pitch. i still contend that 2009 is not an anomaly, and that should be indicative of what he can do year in and year out.......... no reason that a guy that big with the "perfect swing" can't tweak it and have cabrera and trout numbers. his dad said many times that he would be the next to hit .400........ and he is in his prime. may as well evolve and mature and be better.


I beg to differ. FanGraphs researched his HRs for 2009/2010. He had an almost comically large amount of HRs that barely cleared the fence to LF. For some reason his doubles power that year carried a little bit longer. In this case, Mauer doesn't ryhme with power.

http://www.fangraphs...t-mauers-power/

#18 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:04 PM

mauer's percentage of catching runners stealing has really plummeted this year. because of his lack of enough games played at catcher - if you go to the stats from the mlb homepage and isolate catchers, you won't find him included, as he doesn't qualify............. i found it on his individual stats ...... he is only 9-65 this year .............. 13.8%. not very scary anymore to runners. they are really taking advantage, too. they did the damage this year in only 76 games! (2007 24-45 53.3%, 2008 29-80 36.3%, 2009 19-73 26%, 2010 19-72 26.4%, 2011 (with the mysterious bi-lateral leg weakness) 12-40 30%, 2012 (healthy?) 9-65 13.8%).


How does this translate to the pitcher's he caught. I think you have to factor in how the pitcher's hold runners to get a truer picture his CS % (and all catchers for that matter). For instance, catching for Mark Buerhle every fifth day would could make a poor catcher look capable.

#19 h2oface

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:33 PM

i know that joe does incredibly well hitting with two strikes on him........ but watching all the meatballs down the middle that he takes is painful. since he is soooo good at hitting with two strikes....... it is past time for him to swing for the fence on that first pitch. i still contend that 2009 is not an anomaly, and that should be indicative of what he can do year in and year out.......... no reason that a guy that big with the "perfect swing" can't tweak it and have cabrera and trout numbers. his dad said many times that he would be the next to hit .400........ and he is in his prime. may as well evolve and mature and be better.


I beg to differ. FanGraphs researched his HRs for 2009/2010. He had an almost comically large amount of HRs that barely cleared the fence to LF. For some reason his doubles power that year carried a little bit longer. In this case, Mauer doesn't ryhme with power.

http://www.fangraphs...t-mauers-power/


which could also mean......... he was at the age he is getting stronger, and that was a trend that was starting... to hit the ball a little further each year. i guess i just believe he is one of the rare players, that with a very slight bit of tweaking, could be the best hitter in the game. i see you don't. i still think he can. but home run production is a part of that. the future will tell the story.

#20 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:35 PM

It was before my time, but did Twins fans in the 70's whine about Rod Carew because he didn't hit for power?

#21 h2oface

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:38 PM

mauer's percentage of catching runners stealing has really plummeted this year. because of his lack of enough games played at catcher - if you go to the stats from the mlb homepage and isolate catchers, you won't find him included, as he doesn't qualify............. i found it on his individual stats ...... he is only 9-65 this year .............. 13.8%. not very scary anymore to runners. they are really taking advantage, too. they did the damage this year in only 76 games! (2007 24-45 53.3%, 2008 29-80 36.3%, 2009 19-73 26%, 2010 19-72 26.4%, 2011 (with the mysterious bi-lateral leg weakness) 12-40 30%, 2012 (healthy?) 9-65 13.8%).


How does this translate to the pitcher's he caught. I think you have to factor in how the pitcher's hold runners to get a truer picture his CS % (and all catchers for that matter). For instance, catching for Mark Buerhle every fifth day would could make a poor catcher look capable.


certainly a pitcher with a bad move can be a part of this. i just presented the stat. it is what it is. "lies, damn lies, and statistics". you can truly spin stats however you like. maybe it is nothing to note at all.

#22 JB_Iowa

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:56 PM

It was before my time, but did Twins fans in the 70's whine about Rod Carew because he didn't hit for power?



Well it was pre-internet so whining couldn't take on the same intensity. And frankly, I just remember being awed by Carew's consistency at the plate. But he was also a totally different body type than Mauer and he was a table setter plus speedy on the basepaths.

The puzzle for me is why Mauer doesn't hit with more power (not just HR but extra base hits).

#23 h2oface

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 06:51 PM

i don't remember any expectations from rod carew for power. carew was not a big guy. about 6 foot but only weighed about 170 during his playing career. (killebrew same height, but about 195-200 lbs) .........no where near 6'5" and 230-240 lbs. i never see discussions and the exchange of ideas as whining myself, so i don't see any here either.

#24 Pius Jefferson

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 07:47 PM

What happened to the doubles this season? I thought with less time behind the plate he'd hit around 40 and he only ended up with 31.

#25 snepp

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Posted 04 October 2012 - 08:33 PM

What happened to the doubles this season? I thought with less time behind the plate he'd hit around 40 and he only ended up with 31.


Too many balls on the ground was part of it.

#26 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 05 October 2012 - 10:18 AM

[quote name='h2oface'][quote name='Fire Dan Gladden'][quote name='h2oface']mauer's percentage of catching runners stealing has really plummeted this year. because of his lack of enough games played at catcher - if you go to the stats from the mlb homepage and isolate catchers, you won't find him included, as he doesn't qualify............. i found it on his individual stats ...... he is only 9-65 this year .............. 13.8%. not very scary anymore to runners. they are really taking advantage, too. they did the damage this year in only 76 games! (2007 24-45 53.3%, 2008 29-80 36.3%, 2009 19-73 26%, 2010 19-72 26.4%, 2011 (with the mysterious bi-lateral leg weakness) 12-40 30%, 2012 (healthy?) 9-65 13.8%).[/QUOTE]

How does this translate to the pitcher's he caught. I think you have to factor in how the pitcher's hold runners to get a truer picture his CS % (and all catchers for that matter). For instance, catching for Mark Buerhle every fifth day would could make a poor catcher look capable.[/QUOTE]

certainly a pitcher with a bad move can be a part of this. i just presented the stat. it is what it is. "lies, damn lies, and statistics". you can truly spin stats however you like. maybe it is nothing to note at all.[/QUOTE]

I'm not knocking you for that. I would seriously be interested to know if there has been a study done to see how CS% can be effected by a pitcher's ability to hold a runner on. Their average pitch time to the plate, RH vs LH pitchers. I'm not sure what metrics you could use, but it would be interesting to see a comparison of true CS%.