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Article: Craig Kimbrel and Risk Tolerance

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#141 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 01:16 PM

 

 

He might not be an effective reliever in 2019, but if it turns out that way I'd guess it's more of a talent/skill issue than a late start one. (Although declining talent/skill may have contributed to why he had a late start too -- a bit of a "chicken or the egg" situation!)

 

It may be hard to differentiate the two.Players that start this late in the year are typically coming back from injury.I admit, I have no data on this, but it sure seems like those players are typically not their best the rest of the season.Now, that could be injury, it could be rust, it could be both.  

 

I'm simply saying there is a far higher degree of likelihood that a reliever we trade for is going to be what we expect in 2019.Kimbrel could be something of a wildcard.(Again, a wildcard I wanted.The downside is there, but so is the upside)

Edited by TheLeviathan, 11 June 2019 - 01:17 PM.


#142 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 01:46 PM

 

Fair. I think kimbrel is better than Cobb or Lynn. I just don't see how a third year was a substantial risk when we're essentially looking for this year and the playoffs. A third year seems like a silly reason to drop out of the race. We have payroll flexibility. 3 years isn't a long contract. And despite all the talk of risk, he has significant upside as well. Focusing in upside, it is exceedingly unlikely we trade for a guy with Kimbrel upside, let alone experience and pure stuff. It's unlikely we're willing to part with more than the Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, and Yankees who have all showed the willingness to part with significant assets.

You can assume that Kimbrel will struggle initially. It could be equally "safe to assume" that Kimbrel will come back rested, rejuvenated and healthier for the time off.

A third year for a team with 2 players signed past this year (for cheap) and an obvious need for help in the pen this year is no risk at all. Especially since that third year is only 1 more year from what we offered. Maybe he still signs with Chicago. But to not even try to match isn't trying, imo.

Also, we could have signed Kimbrel AND traded for another stopper. If we handed the ball to Kimbrel, Rogers, and Giles? Shorten the games with our offense, and suddenly I'm loving our shot at the whole thing.

While I agree the risk is being overblown a bit by some posters, there's always risk in putting more than 10% of your payroll into a single reliever. The opportunity cost of money going to one player and not another always carries risk with it. Perhaps the riskiest of all investments is relief pitching, which ups the stakes in this particular situation.

 

But overall, again, I'm mildly disappointed that the Twins didn't get Kimbrel and time will tell us whether they were right to back off a third year.

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#143 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 01:49 PM

 

While I agree the risk is being overblown a bit by some posters, there's always risk in putting more than 10% of your payroll into a single reliever. The opportunity cost of money going to one player and not another always carries risk with it. Perhaps the riskiest of all investments is relief pitching, which ups the stakes in this particular situation.

 

But overall, again, I'm mildly disappointed that the Twins didn't get Kimbrel and time will tell us whether they were right to back off a third year.

 

That last sentence is key. Sometimes people think that if we voice displeasure at a decision, that we think it is awful/evil/the end. Mostly it's mild disappointment.

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#144 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 02:26 PM

 

They've also only blown 4 leads.There are three teams with three blown saves and a couple with four.They are 11th in baseball in K/9.They are 9th in K/BB.10th in HRs allowed.  

 

I'm sure I don't need to explain that ERA is not a good measure of a bullpen. 

Neither are saves or holds. It's hard to blow huge leads even for the worst bullpens. 

 

 The bullpen has thrown the 2nd fewest innings in baseball thanks to a slow schedule to start the season and some deep games by the starting staff. Until recently they hadn't been taxed at all. With Perez looking like the guy we thought he was, Gibson once again struggling to find consistency, and Pineda being a 5ish inning guy, the warts that were largely ignored have become much more apparent. 

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#145 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 02:37 PM

Neither are saves or holds. It's hard to blow huge leads even for the worst bullpens. 
 
 The bullpen has thrown the 2nd fewest innings in baseball thanks to a slow schedule to start the season and some deep games by the starting staff. Until recently they hadn't been taxed at all. With Perez looking like the guy we thought he was, Gibson once again struggling to find consistency, and Pineda being a 5ish inning guy, the warts that were largely ignored have become much more apparent.


Mostly i see people chomping at the bit to beat their personal dead horse. The bullpen performed well in April and May.

Ive said all along that they need more bullpen help. However, my belief in that isnt grounds to play pretend about their performance so far. That kind of nonsense is how obnoxious threads start.

#146 USAFChief

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 02:41 PM

 

Mostly i see people chomping at the bit to beat their personal dead horse. The bullpen performed well in April and May.

Ive said all along that they need more bullpen help. However, my belief in that isnt grounds to play pretend about their performance so far. That kind of nonsense is how obnoxious threads start.

Mod note: The use of descriptors such as "nonsense" to describe others' opinions is how threads turn obnoxious.

 

Knock it off.

 

 

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#147 spycake

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 02:56 PM

 

It may be hard to differentiate the two.Players that start this late in the year are typically coming back from injury.I admit, I have no data on this, but it sure seems like those players are typically not their best the rest of the season.Now, that could be injury, it could be rust, it could be both.  

 

I'm simply saying there is a far higher degree of likelihood that a reliever we trade for is going to be what we expect in 2019.Kimbrel could be something of a wildcard.(Again, a wildcard I wanted.The downside is there, but so is the upside)

That's all fair, and I agree.

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#148 KirbyDome89

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 03:55 PM

 

Mostly i see people chomping at the bit to beat their personal dead horse. The bullpen performed well in April and May.

Ive said all along that they need more bullpen help. However, my belief in that isnt grounds to play pretend about their performance so far. That kind of nonsense is how obnoxious threads start.

Meh maybe we're reading into the thread differently. I see most of the concern directed at moving forward rather than performance in April or May. IMO the last 2 weeks have been a wake up call although I'd argue that some of the warning signs were present even when things were rolling at the beginning of the season. 

 

I agree, the bullpen held together nicely the first couple months, but I also think the numbers are a bit deceiving. Bank the performance thus far, just don't expect those numbers to continue or improve. 

Edited by KirbyDome89, 11 June 2019 - 03:56 PM.


#149 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 June 2019 - 03:56 PM

 

 

I agree, the bullpen held together nicely the first couple months, but I also think the numbers are a bit deceiving. Bank the performance thus far, just don't expect those numbers to continue or improve. 

 

We agree completely.