Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Article: Miguel Sano: A Fading Superstar

miguel sano eddie rosario carlos correa francisco lindor
  • Please log in to reply
108 replies to this topic

#81 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 08 July 2019 - 08:58 AM

Update: 

 

Player A (Rosario):

 

  • .312 OBP - .841 OPS
  • 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games
  • 3.45 pitches per plate appearance - 700 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B (Sano):

 

  • .321 OBP - .896 OPS
  • 113 runs - 37 2B - 4 3B - 53 HRs (94 total XBH) - 97 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 219 times per 162 games
  • 4.40 pitchers per plate appearance - 680 PAs per 162 games

 

Player C: (Kepler)

 

  • .337 OBP - .860 OPS
  • 110 runs - 42 2B - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 110 RBI
  • Projected to get on base 243 times per 162 games
  • 3.56 pitches per plate appearance - 721 PAs per 162 games

Player D (Cruz)

 

  • .367 OBP - .921 OPS
  • 97 runs - 42 2Bs - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 120 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 256 times per 162 games
  • 4.22 pitches per plate appearance - 698 PAs

 

 

  • kenbuddha likes this

#82 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 08 July 2019 - 03:05 PM

Sano's numbers if evened to Rosario/Cruz PA levels:

 

  • 225 times on base -

 

Sano's numbers if evened to Kepler PA levels:

  • 232 times on base

#83 IndianaTwin

IndianaTwin

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1,086 posts

Posted 08 July 2019 - 04:49 PM

 

 

Sano's numbers if evened to Rosario/Cruz PA levels:

 

  • 225 times on base -

 

Sano's numbers if evened to Kepler PA levels:

  • 232 times on base

 

 

This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons.

 

So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season. 

 

 

  • ashbury likes this

#84 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 09 July 2019 - 06:25 AM

 

This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons.

 

So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season. 

 

 

Definitely.This is an exercise of showing per game production when healthy. In the NBA they display points by PPG, in the MLB I think the equivalent of that is pace per 162 games.The point being that besides some general streakiness, that Rosario and to some extent Kepler also possess, the issue is not Sano's production when healthy.It is fair to question Sano's ability to stay healthy.

 

With that being said, Sano has performed at this level (.320-.340 OBP / 40 HR / 30 2B / 100 runs / 100+ rbi) at a per 162 game pace his whole career.This is essentially Kepler's first year where he's taken that jump.There is something to that as well, although it also shows that Sano has not really improved since entering the majors.With that being said, some of that lack of improvement may be due to the constant injuries and having to rehab from injuries and never really being able to have a full stable season and a chance to really focus on some of those problem areas. Further, Sano's career average for OBP is essentially at where Kepler is at now in his career year.  

 

The overall point in terms of the exercise is a proof that Sano's issues in striking out do not KEEP him from being at the level of Rosario/Kepler and our other young stars. Sano's production this year is not new. The strikeouts KEEP him from being a level above that and entering the true superstar territory.  

 

Sano may or may not make adjustments and figure out on how to cut down the strikeouts by a standard deviation or two, but this exercise should peg the debate where it truly should be at as a reflection of Sano's actual production now versus where it could be if he could cut down the strikeouts.I think it would be unwise to give up on a player who's as productive as Sano and who still has the potential to reach another level because the strikeouts, swing and misses, and style of play looks ugly at times.

 

It's important to start with the data and work opinions from the data and based in the data.I am hoping this exercise pegs the debate in a better place.

  • IndianaTwin, kenbuddha and Don Walcott like this

#85 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    G.O.A.T.

  • Twins Mods
  • 13,900 posts
  • Locationthe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 09 July 2019 - 07:20 AM

 

This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons.

 

So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season. 

The good news is that his approach in the last week or two appears to have changed. We need that badly. I'd have been willing to send him down when the team got healthy, but if he keeps doing what he's done in the last two weeks, the Ks will be a bit more in the acceptable territory and he'll be hitting at a higher average, generating walks, and still getting the HRs. The question at hand is whether or not he's gotten lucky or has made sustainable changes.

 

Cleveland has clawed back into this, and Sano firing on all cylinders will be a pretty massive upgrade going forward. 

  • IndianaTwin and puckstopper1 like this

#86 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 09 July 2019 - 07:42 AM

 

The good news is that his approach in the last week or two appears to have changed. We need that badly. I'd have been willing to send him down when the team got healthy, but if he keeps doing what he's done in the last two weeks, the Ks will be a bit more in the acceptable territory and he'll be hitting at a higher average, generating walks, and still getting the HRs. The question at hand is whether or not he's gotten lucky or has made sustainable changes.

 

Cleveland has clawed back into this, and Sano firing on all cylinders will be a pretty massive upgrade going forward. 

 

I think there is always going to be some level of streakiness.Both Rosario and Kepler have had and do have multiple streaks of 8-50 type runs throughout the season.It's the nature of the game. There's just more of a focus on Sano because of how bad his bad streaks are with the strikeouts that get even more pronounced. 


#87 Carole Keller

Carole Keller

    I only stalk idiots.

  • Twins Mods
  • 23,087 posts

Posted 09 July 2019 - 08:03 AM

The good news is that his approach in the last week or two appears to have changed. We need that badly. I'd have been willing to send him down when the team got healthy, but if he keeps doing what he's done in the last two weeks, the Ks will be a bit more in the acceptable territory and he'll be hitting at a higher average, generating walks, and still getting the HRs. The question at hand is whether or not he's gotten lucky or has made sustainable changes.

Cleveland has clawed back into this, and Sano firing on all cylinders will be a pretty massive upgrade going forward.


Wouldn’t say Cleveland has clawed their way back in because it was too early in the season to discount them. They are now performing as expected while we are coming back to earth, more in our expected range. Will make for a close season after all. And really glad Sano is finding his way back because we need him to.
  • Thrylos, diehardtwinsfan and kenbuddha like this

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet. But a skunkweed will always be a skunkweed and instantly recognizable. 


#88 stringer bell

stringer bell

    In the Twilight of a Mediocre Career

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,677 posts
  • LocationElgin, MN

Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:19 AM

1) The title of this thread is misleading or wrong. Miguel Sanó was never a superstar. Some may have projected him to that status, but the body of work at the major league level was never that of a superstar. It's pretty tough to be a fading superstar when you weren't one in the first place.

 

2) After a pretty dramatic cold streak, Sanó has been one of the Twins' best hitters for the last week plus of play. His numbers for the year have bounced back into the "very good" range.

 

3) I'll repeat what I've said in other Sanó threads--the team promoted this guy as the next Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas and he hasn't been that. I think some of the disappointment about Sanó comes from the expectations.

 

4) Injuries have derailed Sanó more than most. He has been healthy less than two months, but if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I think we fans and the Twins will have a better idea of how good a hitter he will be in the future.


#89 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 7,326 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:34 AM

1) The title of this thread is misleading or wrong. Miguel Sanó was never a superstar. Some may have projected him to that status, but the body of work at the major league level was never that of a superstar. It's pretty tough to be a fading superstar when you weren't one in the first place.

2) After a pretty dramatic cold streak, Sanó has been one of the Twins' best hitters for the last week plus of play. His numbers for the year have bounced back into the "very good" range.

3) I'll repeat what I've said in other Sanó threads--the team promoted this guy as the next Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas and he hasn't been that. I think some of the disappointment about Sanó comes from the expectations.

4) Injuries have derailed Sanó more than most. He has been healthy less than two months, but if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I think we fans and the Twins will have a better idea of how good a hitter he will be in the future.


I'd be shocked if the team ever said, or even implied that Sano would be as good as Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas.
Do you have any links where that was suggested by the team?

#90 jctwins

jctwins

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 403 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:07 PM

 

I'd be shocked if the team ever said, or even implied that Sano would be as good as Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas.
Do you have any links where that was suggested by the team?

 

My strongest memory, and it's only that, was the rain delay TV spot when he was in the minor league system that made a number of references to him crushing balls like no one had ever seen, or some similar statement. 

 


#91 Doomtints

Doomtints

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 3,532 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 12:35 PM

 

1) The title of this thread is misleading or wrong. Miguel Sanó was never a superstar. Some may have projected him to that status, but the body of work at the major league level was never that of a superstar. It's pretty tough to be a fading superstar when you weren't one in the first place.

 

2) After a pretty dramatic cold streak, Sanó has been one of the Twins' best hitters for the last week plus of play. His numbers for the year have bounced back into the "very good" range.

 

3) I'll repeat what I've said in other Sanó threads--the team promoted this guy as the next Miguel Cabrera or Frank Thomas and he hasn't been that. I think some of the disappointment about Sanó comes from the expectations.

 

4) Injuries have derailed Sanó more than most. He has been healthy less than two months, but if he stays healthy the rest of the year, I think we fans and the Twins will have a better idea of how good a hitter he will be in the future.

 

Good points. People have mixed him up with Buxton a little bit (and you too perhaps a little bit... I don't remember the Twins marketing Sano as the next big thing).

 

Since Bill Smith left as GM, the Twins felt like reluctant partners with Sano. This is the first year that feels different, where he isn't being jerked around or questioned at every turn by someone in management.

 

Also, consider the source. Twins Daily was part of the Sano drama when it unfolded. A healthy dose of skepticism goes a long way in baseball, this article/narrative is no exception.

Twins Manifesto: Build for .500, hope for more.


#92 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Members
  • 5,532 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 02:30 PM

With that being said, Sano has performed at this level (.320-.340 OBP / 40 HR / 30 2B / 100 runs / 100+ rbi) at a per 162 game pace his whole career. This is essentially Kepler's first year where he's taken that jump. There is something to that as well, although it also shows that Sano has not really improved since entering the majors. With that being said, some of that lack of improvement may be due to the constant injuries and having to rehab from injuries and never really being able to have a full stable season and a chance to really focus on some of those problem areas. Further, Sano's career average for OBP is essentially at where Kepler is at now in his career year.

The overall point in terms of the exercise is a proof that Sano's issues in striking out do not KEEP him from being at the level of Rosario/Kepler and our other young stars. Sano's production this year is not new. The strikeouts KEEP him from being a level above that and entering the true superstar territory.


To me, his lack of substantial improvement in any aspect of his game is by far the most concerning. It suggests an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance of belief that he doesn’t need to get better.

As mentioned, Rosario and Kepler have shown an improvement in something every year.

The last couple weeks have certainly been an improvement, but old habits tend to resurface when things start to go bad. We’ll see.

#93 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 04:32 PM

 

To me, his lack of substantial improvement in any aspect of his game is by far the most concerning. It suggests an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance of belief that he doesn’t need to get better.

As mentioned, Rosario and Kepler have shown an improvement in something every year.

The last couple weeks have certainly been an improvement, but old habits tend to resurface when things start to go bad. We’ll see.

 

I think that is a emotional bias reaction.It's penalizing Sano for developing earlier than the other two.To be fair, I know what you're trying to say is that you are criticizing him for not reaching his proverbial ceiling. 

 

However, whatever way you slice it...the 3 are similar level of players (in a good way).You can't knock Sano for being that level of player and call for his head while also praising Rosario and Kepler for being that same level of player.That does not make any sense.

 

I don't think it's fair to say that it's an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance that he doesn't need to get better.I think that's a projection.

 

I hope Sano can figure out how to take some steps forward and find a higher level of play.I think he will if he can stay healthy for a consistent stretch of time.However, do not let emotional biases distract you from player value--emotional biases.  


#94 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 7,326 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 06:24 PM

I think that is a emotional bias reaction. It's penalizing Sano for developing earlier than the other two. To be fair, I know what you're trying to say is that you are criticizing him for not reaching his proverbial ceiling.

However, whatever way you slice it... the 3 are similar level of players (in a good way). You can't knock Sano for being that level of player and call for his head while also praising Rosario and Kepler for being that same level of player. That does not make any sense.

I don't think it's fair to say that it's an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance that he doesn't need to get better. I think that's a projection.

I hope Sano can figure out how to take some steps forward and find a higher level of play. I think he will if he can stay healthy for a consistent stretch of time. However, do not let emotional biases distract you from player value--emotional biases.


The only way Sano is a similar level player to those two is if we suggest that defense and durability are meaningless.

#95 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 06:59 PM

 

The only way Sano is a similar level player to those two is if we suggest that defense and durability are meaningless.

 

Meh.None of the 3 player important defensive positions.Rosario grades as an extremely negative defender. Kepler actually does grade well especially with his ability to play CF in a pinch, so I might give you that.Not sure any of the 3 are really enough of difference makers to push the needle in any way defensively, especially since Sano has made himself into something of an average or close to average defender at 3rd.

 

Sano and Rosario actually have the same fwar despite Sano playing about half the games largely due to Rosario's defensive ineptitude.  


#96 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 7,326 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:10 PM

Meh. None of the 3 player important defensive positions. Rosario grades as an extremely negative defender. Kepler actually does grade well especially with his ability to play CF in a pinch, so I might give you that. Not sure any of the 3 are really enough of difference makers to push the needle in any way defensively, especially since Sano has made himself into something of an average or close to average defender at 3rd.

Sano and Rosario actually have the same fwar despite Sano playing about half the games largely due to Rosario's defensive ineptitude.


Some positions are more important than others, but they all matter.
You can't outlaw the opposing team from hitting it to right field.
I'll grant you Rosario, but Sano isn't even close to Kepler, IMO.
Durability matters, a lot, and it's a skill, IMO.

#97 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Members
  • 5,532 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:31 PM

I think that is a emotional bias reaction. It's penalizing Sano for developing earlier than the other two. To be fair, I know what you're trying to say is that you are criticizing him for not reaching his proverbial ceiling.

However, whatever way you slice it... the 3 are similar level of players (in a good way). You can't knock Sano for being that level of player and call for his head while also praising Rosario and Kepler for being that same level of player. That does not make any sense.

I don't think it's fair to say that it's an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance that he doesn't need to get better. I think that's a projection.

I hope Sano can figure out how to take some steps forward and find a higher level of play. I think he will if he can stay healthy for a consistent stretch of time. However, do not let emotional biases distract you from player value--emotional biases.


Any player can always get better. That he started out “better” simply indicates a higher level of natural talent. Here’s an extreme example: Jacque Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Both came into the bigs with a great deal of natural talent and both did well pretty much from day one. But both continued to get better. Ken Griffey had otherworldly talent, but that didn’t stop him from getting better as he aged and gained experience. Jones had much less talent but he still got better and had himself a solid career.

This is Sano’s fifth season at the MLB level. I’m not really looking at his numbers from 2019 because he has half as many at bats as any other year. There’s literally no improvement offensively in any important category. His defense hasn’t gotten better. He consistently grades as considerably below average.

#98 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:00 PM

 

Some positions are more important than others, but they all matter.
You can't outlaw the opposing team from hitting it to right field.
I'll grant you Rosario, but Sano isn't even close to Kepler, IMO.
Durability matters, a lot, and it's a skill, IMO.

 

I have consistently acknowledged that the analysis earlier in this post and in my other comments and posts about Sano regard his production on the field when healthy.It is 100% fair to criticize and question his ability to stay healthy. 

 

What is not fair, is the Twins fans who will make comments about Sano's production that are based in a biased reaction to a certain style of play instead of production to a team.

 

I would also argue to some extent that his injury concerns will price down his next contract compared to his actual production which would be good value.


#99 twins1095

twins1095

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Members
  • 127 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:09 PM

 

Any player can always get better. That he started out “better” simply indicates a higher level of natural talent. Here’s an extreme example: Jacque Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Both came into the bigs with a great deal of natural talent and both did well pretty much from day one. But both continued to get better. Ken Griffey had otherworldly talent, but that didn’t stop him from getting better as he aged and gained experience. Jones had much less talent but he still got better and had himself a solid career.

This is Sano’s fifth season at the MLB level. I’m not really looking at his numbers from 2019 because he has half as many at bats as any other year. There’s literally no improvement offensively in any important category. His defense hasn’t gotten better. He consistently grades as considerably below average.

 

He's graded averagely this year.His defensive score, for whatever you take that is worth ~-0.2.Rosario's is -6ish.Other than 1 year, Sano has graded anywhere from just below average to average at 3B (above average his rookie year).  

 

I'm not sure it's fair to say that...it could mean that, but I think that discounts a lot of hard work and development done before the majors.Sano may have simply reached the top of his skillset sooner... 

 

It could be that he's more naturally talented in some ways. Regardless, it's irrelevant when looking at how productive a player is now if it took him 5 years to get there or he was there from Day 1.Either way, he is that player. The rest is an emotional reaction to a feeling that you have around a figurative word called "potential".  

 

Further, if we do want to say that Kepler/Rosario have topped out their ceiling while Sano has been at that level since Day 1 and has not topped out his...how great is it to have a Kepler/Rosario level hitter with the potential that he could be even better one day down the road if he ever puts it all together?  

 

 

 

 


#100 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 21,785 posts

Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:16 PM

 

I think that is a emotional bias reaction.It's penalizing Sano for developing earlier than the other two.To be fair, I know what you're trying to say is that you are criticizing him for not reaching his proverbial ceiling. 

 

However, whatever way you slice it...the 3 are similar level of players (in a good way).You can't knock Sano for being that level of player and call for his head while also praising Rosario and Kepler for being that same level of player.That does not make any sense.

 

I don't think it's fair to say that it's an unwillingness to listen to coaches or an arrogance that he doesn't need to get better.I think that's a projection.

 

I hope Sano can figure out how to take some steps forward and find a higher level of play.I think he will if he can stay healthy for a consistent stretch of time.However, do not let emotional biases distract you from player value--emotional biases.  

While I would never say Sano refuses to listen to coaches or is some kind of stubborn malcontent, as a hitter his pure talent exceeds both Kepler and Rosario.

 

And that's the problem. Rosario overcame his pinwheel nature a bit and became a very good hitter. He's also athletic enough that his pretty good hitting makes him a solid left fielder.

 

Kepler is a pure athlete but not the pure hitter Sano was in the minors. He has rounded out his game to become a very good player overall.

 

Then we loop back to Sano. A guy with an amazing eye at the plate, jaw-dropping strength, and underwhelming results at the MLB level compared to his MiLB numbers. Not only does he fail to match the defensive athleticism of Rosario and Kepler, but he's not even exceeding them in hitting. He absolutely mashed in the minors to a level neither Kepler nor Rosario could come close to doing. Yet both of those players have surpassed Sano as not only MLB players but as MLB hitters.

 

To quote Letterkenny, Sano needs to "figure it out". And that's not me ripping the guy, it's just saying that he's underperforming his amazing talent and ability.

  • diehardtwinsfan likes this



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: miguel sano, eddie rosario, carlos correa, francisco lindor