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Article: Miguel Sano: A Fading Superstar

miguel sano eddie rosario carlos correa francisco lindor
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#61 USAFChief

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 09:08 PM

 

Miguel Sano before tonight's (Wednesday) game;

 

1.009 OPS, .406 wOBA, 156 wRC+.Not only is his offense seen as above average thus far this season, so is his defense AND baserunning.He's accumulated 0.8 WAR in only 14 games--in a 154 game season, that's a 9 WAR season.Sure he strikes out a lot, but he also has nearly a 50% hard hit rate, and only a 6.5% soft hit rate--in other words, the 65% of the time he makes contact, it's medium contact or better 9 times out of 10.

 

This piece smacks of something the writer threw together on the heels of Monday's 0-3 with a strikeout, without any manner of research whatsoever.I'm not sure how else a piece running Sano down could be posted.

Can we get an update on those numbers?

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#62 alarp33

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Posted 21 June 2019 - 07:02 AM

 

Can we get an update on those numbers?

 

Since that post; 

 

.415 OPS, .253 wOBA, 52 wRC+, 46.7 K%

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#63 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 21 June 2019 - 07:17 AM

Who else out there in Twins' Land automatically says "slider low and away for a swinging strike three" every time Sano has two strikes on him?

#64 stringer bell

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Posted 21 June 2019 - 07:27 AM

Sanó only had one plate appearance last night, but got four strikes (horrible missed call by the ump) and didn't come close. He's struggling for sure, at a time when the team could really benefit from him hitting his stride.


#65 BBAM

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Posted 21 June 2019 - 07:49 AM

Mauer is gone so seems Sano is the new one to hate on.Last year there was a lot of disappointment in Polanco and look where he is now.Sano needs at least 2 years with this new coaching staff before he getsthe boot.This staff if more in line with NYY or Boston coaching as we can see by all the improvements in this team.Sano has not been her as long as the rest.But since the team is doing so well you would think we could just sit back and enjoy baseball as they are playing.For the most part even when they lose it is an exciting game. 

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#66 taadland84

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 08:18 PM

Update: 3 Home Runs in last two games..He has a chance to get up to 25 on the year for sure. Dude has been injured. People hating on Sano is all too cliche' and somehow at 26 is fading? smh.. Aaron Hicks was 26 when Twins gave him away. David Ortiz was 26 when he played his last game as a Twin.. Have some patience.

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#67 Kelly Vance

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 08:48 PM

I would like to see fewer articles like this..... many fewer.

 

 

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#68 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 30 June 2019 - 05:33 AM

 

Update: 3 Home Runs in last two games..He has a chance to get up to 25 on the year for sure. Dude has been injured. People hating on Sano is all too cliche' and somehow at 26 is fading? smh.. Aaron Hicks was 26 when Twins gave him away. David Ortiz was 26 when he played his last game as a Twin.. Have some patience.

patience is definitely warranted. I wouldn't be shocked if he got optioned if this continues though. 

 

Honestly, I'd like to see something other than HR, K, or BB out of Sano. He's got the power to still hit bombs when shortening his swing, yet for some reason he still swings through his shoes. 

 

Hopefully this is a moot point and the last two days are indicators that he's adjusted to major league pitchers.


#69 3balls2strikes

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Posted 30 June 2019 - 02:44 PM

I would like to see more articles like this . . . many more. 

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#70 twins1095

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 10:28 AM

Let's do a little player comparison using current 2019 season averages per 162 games (to get an idea of per game production).

 

Player A...

 

  • .312 OBP - .841 OPS
  • 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games 
  • 4.32 PA per game / 3.45 pitches per plate appearance / 698 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B...

 

  • .306 OBP - .883 OPS
  • 111 runs - 32 2B - 60 HRs (92 total XBH) -111 RBIs 
  • Projected to get on base 208 times during 162 games
  • 4.2 PAs per game / 4.35 pitches per AB / 680 PAs per 162 games
  • Projected to get on base 214 times with 114 rbis and runs if you even out PAs

 

Which player would you take and why?How much more valuable is that player than the other player you didn't choose to take?

Edited by twins1095, 03 July 2019 - 10:30 AM.

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#71 wsnydes

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 10:40 AM

 

Let's do a little player comparison using current 2019 season averages per 162 games (to get an idea of per game production).

 

Player A...

 

  • .312 OBP - .841 OPS
  • 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games 
  • 4.32 PA per game / 3.45 pitches per plate appearance / 698 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B...

 

  • .306 OBP - .883 OPS
  • 111 runs - 32 2B - 60 HRs (92 total XBH) -111 RBIs 
  • Projected to get on base 208 times during 162 games
  • 4.2 PAs per game / 4.35 pitches per AB / 680 PAs per 162 games
  • Projected to get on base 214 times with 114 rbis and runs if you even out PAs

 

Which player would you take and why?How much more valuable is that player than the other player you didn't choose to take?

I'm taking Player A because of the RBI total. Runs are what wins games. The differences in the rest of the numbers are negligible enough.

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#72 Sconnie

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 10:42 AM

Gleeman and the Geek had a good synopsis of the coaching work done with Sano to help explain/describe his recent skid. The way Gleeman said it, the FO read Parker's TD article on fixing his swing and took free advice.

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#73 twins1095

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 10:53 AM

I'm taking Player A because of the RBI total. Runs are what wins games. The differences in the rest of the numbers are negligible enough.


Fair answer. More scenario information:

Player A’s most used spot in the lineup is say 4th. Player B’s is say 7th.

Some of the rbi difference can be explained by better hitters on base in front of Player A and more protection behind. That being said, Player A has more pressure to produce.

Does that change your answer at all?

#74 jkcarew

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 10:54 AM

Patience continues to be warranted with Sano. You just don't give up on that kind of power without trying everything. I like Sano, but from the outside looking in, it doesn't seem like he's ever made adjustments. If he does, or if he can, he'll be very useful. If he can't, he won't. Maybe the last 1-2 weeks are a sign of something more than just getting some timing back? Maybe these are the early signs that he's learning how to make those adjustments? We'll see.

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#75 wsnydes

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 11:22 AM

 

Fair answer. More scenario information:

Player A’s most used spot in the lineup is say 4th. Player B’s is say 7th.

Some of the rbi difference can be explained by better hitters on base in front of Player A and more protection behind. That being said, Player A has more pressure to produce.

Does that change your answer at all?

In a vacuum, it doesn't given the info at hand. I had considered that since you listed the PA comps. Though there are plenty of scenarios where it would. 

 

If Player B is still driving in 110+ from the 7 spot that means that he's given plenty of opportunities (though likely buoyed a bit by his 17 added HRs) and since he's got the higher XBH totals he's got plenty of protection as well. There's probably not a discernible difference between the two players in the end. Would Player B still see the same selection of pitches if moved up to cleanup? Hard to say with the info given. They're almost interchangeable. This is a problem I'd absolutely love to have as a manager.

 

Ultimately, for me, the numbers indicate that Player A puts the ball in play more often. That provides value to me especially at cleanup. I'm not really sure there's a wrong answer here though.

"Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains."

#76 twins1095

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 11:31 AM

In a vacuum, it doesn't given the info at hand. I had considered that since you listed the PA comps. Though there are plenty of scenarios where it would.

If Player B is still driving in 110+ from the 7 spot that means that he's given plenty of opportunities (though likely buoyed a bit by his 17 added HRs) and since he's got the higher XBH totals he's got plenty of protection as well. There's probably not a discernible difference between the two players in the end. Would Player B still see the same selection of pitches if moved up to cleanup? Hard to say with the info given. They're almost interchangeable. This is a problem I'd absolutely love to have as a manager.

Ultimately, for me, the numbers indicate that Player A puts the ball in play more often. That provides value to me especially at cleanup. I'm not really sure there's a wrong answer here though.

Again, fair take. Thanks for the response. That’s the overall sort of back and forth thought analysis and take I was hoping other posters would get out of the exercise.

The overall output between the two players is essentially the same. Player A does get on base more and drive in slightly more runs. Player B has more power. The RBI difference is somewhat buoyed by the differences in spot in the order. The differences in amount of times on base between the two, especially if you even out the play appearances, is marginal (Player A gets on base on average 1 more time per ~40 games).


Player A is Rosario’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

Player B is Sano’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

Interesting contextual thought exercise because one gets a lot more criticism than the other.

Sano’s power numbers will likely come down to a Rosario like level but I think his OBP and average based on his career averages will come up slightly to .240s / .330s so he could actually get on base more than Rosario.

Even if it doesn’t come up that high, it should slightly come up to Rosario’s levels. Again, little bit of opinion in this last part but output differences between the two are interesting to look at outside of the noise and bias from the eye test on styles of play.

Edited by twins1095, 03 July 2019 - 11:40 AM.

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#77 wsnydes

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 11:43 AM

 

Again, fair take. Thanks for the response. That’s the overall sort of back and forth thought analysis and take I was hoping other posters would get out of the exercise.

Player A is Rosario’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

Player B is Sano’s current 2019 season averages per 162 games.

Interesting contextual thought exercise because one gets a lot more criticism than the other.

You're welcome. That was fun to think through. They both drive me nuts at times and for basically the same reason.

 

For me it's not about what Sano puts into play, it's what he doesn't. When he was scuffling the past couple of weeks he was missing hittable pitches in the zone and then chasing out of it. He can easily cut the strikeouts down while still hitting with power. Hit the pitches in the zone and lay off the ones out of it.

 

Rosario is a bad ball hitter. When he's on I think he does a better job of finding a pitch that he can drive, wherever it may be. When he's off, he's not doing that as well and he gets himself out a lot. 

"Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains."

#78 Don Walcott

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Posted 03 July 2019 - 12:55 PM

If Sano plays 100 games this year, he's on pace to hit 37 HRs. He's hitting a HR every 10 ABs so far this season.

Edited by Don Walcott, 03 July 2019 - 12:55 PM.

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#79 Doomtints

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 07:47 AM

 

If Sano plays 100 games this year, he's on pace to hit 37 HRs. He's hitting a HR every 10 ABs so far this season.

 

DFA him. The narrative says he's fading and that's that.

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#80 twins1095

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 08:58 AM

Update: 

 

Player A (Rosario):

 

  • .312 OBP - .841 OPS
  • 110 runs - 30 2B - 2 3B - 43 HRs (75 total XBH) - 130 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 218 times during 162 games
  • 3.45 pitches per plate appearance - 700 PAs per 162 game

 

Player B (Sano):

 

  • .321 OBP - .896 OPS
  • 113 runs - 37 2B - 4 3B - 53 HRs (94 total XBH) - 97 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 219 times per 162 games
  • 4.40 pitchers per plate appearance - 680 PAs per 162 games

 

Player C: (Kepler)

 

  • .337 OBP - .860 OPS
  • 110 runs - 42 2B - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 110 RBI
  • Projected to get on base 243 times per 162 games
  • 3.56 pitches per plate appearance - 721 PAs per 162 games

Player D (Cruz)

 

  • .367 OBP - .921 OPS
  • 97 runs - 42 2Bs - 42 HRs (84 total XBH) - 120 RBIs
  • Projected to get on base 256 times per 162 games
  • 4.22 pitches per plate appearance - 698 PAs

 

 

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