I think this draft was a bit underwhelming but pretty solid, which is sorta how I feel about our farm system. We're told we have a top 10 (maybe top 5) system. Yay! But we only have 3 top 100 prospects. Tons of depth but no one is a potential superstar yet. But we have several prospects who could make large jumps if a something breaks right.
Cavaco had a ton of helium but some pretty big question marks. Wallner could be a hitter like Larnich but might struggle like Rooker against better competition, and so on. Canterino could be a solid back or the rotation starter or he could be another Ryan Eades. etc. There's always upside but we're waiting on it.And no one that we drafted would likely jump into any top 100 list and I'm not sure Cavaco would be top 5 in our system.
The Mets, who have a million dollars less than us in the pool, seemed to have nabbed some upside guys at the (likely) expense of quantity. I'm not sure they actually had the better draft but they certainly had the more interesting draft.
I think this is a good assessment with the caveat that they have ten senior signs out of 11 picks, which suggests they have some pool money to play with in rounds 11-40 to maybe lure a HS prospect or two away from a college commitment.
Cavaco has a higher ceiling and a lower floor than Nick Gordon, but this draft resembles the 2015 draft to me, in that there's the risk of criticism for passing on pitching (again). Gordon was selected ahead of Nola and Freeman, although both went where they were ranked by pundits, as did Gordon IIRC. And frankly, the rest of that draft produced little: Burdi (bad luck), Curtiss (back in AAA), and Hildenberger.
With Cavaco, he's going to NEED to turn out. I predict that at least two of the seven players selected immediately after him will be really good, but which two is of course impossible to know. Therefore, if Cavaco busts, there may be a slew of opportunities to rip the selection if any of Rutledge, Thompson, Priester, Wilson and Kirby are success stories. But I much prefer they take risks like this, especially given where they are with a top 10 Power ranking and a top 10 pipeline.
I concur that the draft is looking meh. But who knows maybe someone like Will Holland becomes the next Dozier. One story like that changes everything.
I concur with less conviction that the pipeline is short a high upside prospect or two. I waiver on that because we have such impressive depth in B grade players, and the chances of a couple exploding onto the scene are pretty good. I think we might have some IFA prospects that could emerge as Top 100 types, we'll see. At any rate, having three Top 100 guys is pretty good, especially with two being in the top 5-15, with Larnach and others close. Like always, we're waiting on some prospects.
The Mets pulled a fast one to get Allen. Nice.
Edited by birdwatcher, 05 June 2019 - 09:50 AM.