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#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 02:40 PM

 

I never used the phrase utterly failed. I'm happy to have conversations if people want....but let's not exaggerate positions to make points.

 

Mike, you sorta did that to yourself.  

 

Perhaps before we worry we won't "have" pitching we should see how the other 3/4 of the draft plays out?At that point your concern may have more merit.


#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 02:41 PM

 

no one said that.......

 

how much great pitching will come after round 5, do you think?

 

Probably only fractionally less than will come before it. How many great pitchers come out of a typical draft? 1 or 2?

 

It's starting to look like the team believes finding great young pitching is less reliable than Frankensteining good arms from pitchers other clubs failed with.

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#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 02:44 PM

 

Mike, you sorta did that to yourself.  

 

Perhaps before we worry we won't "have" pitching we should see how the other 3/4 of the draft plays out?At that point your concern may have more merit.

 

As you pointed out, after round 1-2, maybe three, the odds are LONG on a guy making it. 

 

As I said in the Vikings threads, I'm not interested in more late round guys that won't make it for the OL, and like with the Vikings, I'm doubtful that only taking pitchers late will lead to a lot of good minor league pitching.

 

I'm also hoping they aren't in position to trade MLB players for minor league guys the next 5 years. 

 

So, I'm hoping the plan is to start trading from the surplus of hitting prospects for good MLB starters, and then retaining said starters with big contracts. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 02:44 PM

 

Probably only fractionally less than will come before it. How many great pitchers come out of a typical draft? 1 or 2?

 

It's looking like the team believes finding great young pitching is less reliable than Frankenstiening good pitching from pitchers other clubs failed with.

 

Certainly possible. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#25 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 02:49 PM

 

As you pointed out, after round 1-2, maybe three, the odds are LONG on a guy making it. 

 

 

A couple things - you keep comparing the fourth round of the MLB draft to the NFL one and that comparison doesn't hold much weight.Every round after the first in MLB is more like the 7th round of the NFL.It's 39 rounds of 7th round shot taking.So I really don't like that comparison you keep drawing.

 

Secondly, (and related) it's not as if a second round pitcher is significantly more likely to be a major leaguer than a seventh rounder.The number just don't bear out the complaint.  

 

The odds are long against all positions, not just pitchers. 

Edited by TheLeviathan, 04 June 2019 - 02:50 PM.

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#26 Kelly Vance

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:09 PM

 

Mindboggling to me that they have only selected 1 pitcher in the draft so far. With an organization that has been starved of arms for years and not a lot on the farm where do they think its going to come from! But hey, atleast we have 47 stud infielders!!!

I think the Twins realize that it is better to trade for pitchers than draft them. Taking guys like Wimmers in the draft didn't help much in past years. Some NFL teams go this route with quarterbacks.

 

Sending a decent middle infield prospect to TB for Odorizzi, for example, was a good move. But first you had to draft the shortstop they wanted. 

 

Taking the best player available should pan out as long as you can move that prospect later.I don't see a reason to worry. 

 

 

 

 

 

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#27 KirbyDome89

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:19 PM

 

Probably only fractionally less than will come before it. How many great pitchers come out of a typical draft? 1 or 2?

Isn't that just as hyperbolic as "can't find pitching?"

 

Again, I'm on board with drafting position players that are more likely to reach the major league level, but I'd certainly take a pitcher that slots as the 2 or 3 which I think is a much more reasonable expectation for a guy drafted in the first couple rounds.


#28 KirbyDome89

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:24 PM

 

Secondly, (and related) it's not as if a second round pitcher is significantly more likely to be a major leaguer than a seventh rounder.The number just don't bear out the complaint.  

There's a significantly better chance of a 2nd round arm reaching the major leagues.

 

We all agree that prospects are lottery tickets, but way too often on TD they're all lumped together into the same category. All picks aren't created equally, 2nd and 7th round picks don't have the same odds of panning out.


#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:29 PM

 

There's a significantly better chance of a 2nd round arm reaching the major leagues.

 

We all agree that prospects are lottery tickets, but way too often on TD they're all lumped together into the same category. All picks aren't created equally, 2nd and 7th round picks don't have the same odds of panning out.

 

Not exactly, but it's not as big a gulf as you might think.Especially once you get to the third round it really starts to level off. 

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#30 KirbyDome89

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:41 PM

 

Not exactly, but it's not as big a gulf as you might think.Especially once you get to the third round it really starts to level off. 

I was using the same data. For HS arms going from the 2nd to 5th round the % chance of making it is cut in half. It's not as extreme for college arms but if you go 1st to 5th the % chance is again slashed in half. I'd consider that fairly significant even if your odds are !:4 at best. 

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#31 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:42 PM

 

I never used the phrase utterly failed. I'm happy to have conversations if people want....but let's not exaggerate positions to make points.

 

I think it will be hard to find trades like Odo, because when you look at trades for good SPs, you don't see many like it. 

 

As for Perez, if Wes Johnson can do this every year, he should be paid about 100MM per year. Again, it just doesn't happen all that often that a guy is so bad he's cut by a team desperate for pitching, has an ERA in the high 5s, and then becomes a good pitcher the next year.

 

I don't see either as consistently repeatable because it doesn't happen across the league every year, let alone for one team every year.

 

 

Mike, you're using a rhetorical mechanism when you do the"no one ever said" and "I never said" and it doesn't serve us well. Latching onto one word instead of addressing the full underlying basis of the other person's argument isn't helpful. Nitpicking about a word like "utterly" deflects from the real argument. Focus on the points being made please? Thank you.

 

To your points: Odorizzi was not a "good pitcher" in Tampa if we use your own standards regarding the Twins IMO. As I described him, he was "middling". I'd maybe describe Pineda's performance to-date as middling, wouldn't you? So I disagree with you. They got Odorizzi because his value declined with his performance, and because his team wanted to trim costs.

 

I believe those kind of conditions will actually increase. Therefore teams like the Twins who have kept some powder dry will continue to have opportunities to win trades like that.

 

You will continue to view Perez differently than many of us. We believe that he got coaching and turned things around. Your portrayal of Perez is just plain inaccurate. Texas declined to extend him, and other teams were in the bidding for him. He was broken, but other teams thought he was fixable too.

 

He and Odorizzi are far from the only two pitchers on the staff experiencing a sort of Renaissance. Heck, even rejects like Harper, Magill, Duffey and Morin are resurrecting lost careers. 

 

But back to your constantly-stated point: You have argued insistently and for the longest time that unless the Twins select potential #1-2 starters in the Rule 4 draft, they will fail (perhaps not utterly, lol) to get the "high-end" pitching you infer is missing for the most part from this roster.

 

A bunch of us disagree with your premise. First, as we have stated many times and backed our views up with solid examples, they already DO have high-end pitching (we never fail to acknowledge they need more) AND are using multiple strategies successfully to add more: IFA, resurrections via both trade and FA, the IFA market..not to mention that they DO have TWO Rule 4 first rounders in their rotation in Berrios and Gibson, so it's hardly a case of them refusing to add high-end pitching via Rule 4.

 

Which pitchers in this draft do you thinik have #1-2 starter ceilings? 

 

Is Kevin Gausman performing like a #1-2 starter? Was it not your opinion that Gausman made more sense than Buxton based on your premise here?

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#32 Sssuperdave

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 03:46 PM

From 2000 - 2014 there were 242 pitchers drafted in the 2nd round.116 of them made the majors so far (48%), and 28 of them have BWAR > 5 (23%).Over the same time period there were 237 pitchers drafted in the 7th round.58 made the majors so far (24%) and 8 have BWAR >5 (3%).So, I'd say you've get better odds in the 2nd round than the 7th.

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#33 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:04 PM

 

From 2000 - 2014 there were 242 pitchers drafted in the 2nd round.116 of them made the majors so far (48%), and 28 of them have BWAR > 5 (23%).Over the same time period there were 237 pitchers drafted in the 7th round.58 made the majors so far (24%) and 8 have BWAR >5 (3%).So, I'd say you've get better odds in the 2nd round than the 7th.

 

 

Thanks for sharing this!

 

Help me out: What number would you assign to #1-2 starter performance? BWAR>5?

 

Phrasing it differently, using some arbitrary number, how many pitchers out of the 242 pitchers drafted in the first round, how many would be considered to have been aces or #2 starters for some reasonable portion of their career?

 

I have a hunch Falvey knows this information.


#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:05 PM

Berrios and Gibson were drafted by the previous regime. Not sure what those drafts tell us.

My contention is not never draft hitters early, it's that if you never draft pitching early, it will be harder to have great pitching. Nothing more or less than that.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#35 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:14 PM

I never used the phrase utterly failed. I'm happy to have conversations if people want....but let's not exaggerate positions to make points.

I think it will be hard to find trades like Odo, because when you look at trades for good SPs, you don't see many like it.

As for Perez, if Wes Johnson can do this every year, he should be paid about 100MM per year. Again, it just doesn't happen all that often that a guy is so bad he's cut by a team desperate for pitching, has an ERA in the high 5s, and then becomes a good pitcher the next year.

I don't see either as consistently repeatable because it doesn't happen across the league every year, let alone for one team every year.


I don't think it's just Wes Johnson though. It's an organization wide dedication.
Wes Johnson plays his part, and if he gets the credit, good for him.
I think this FO has done a great job assembling an entire organization that is assembled in a manner that the sum is greater than each of the parts.
So, yes, I do expect them to continue to find players like Odor and Perez. They'll have misses along the way, nobody is perfect.
I've long suspected they had an organization wide plan, from day one, that would be difficult for us outsiders to recognize.
I used the brick by brick analogy a few times in the early months and years, and I think we are finally starting to see a finished product on top of the long, but crucial foundational work that was done.
I've been a part of many projects where the foundational and precursial work seems to take forever, but then the majority of the building that the public sees goes up in no time. But it's precisely because so much energy was spent on planning and logistics that it's able to come together so quickly and efficiently.

This post may look rube-ishly naive in a few years if it all goes bad, but I think we are in for a long, sustainable run of excellence here. I have a ton of faith in what these guys are doing. And so, I assume that Falvey and Levine aren't going to wake up one day and suddenly realize they forgot to plan for starting pitching. They know it's importance, and they have a plan, even if we can't see it yet.
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#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:16 PM

I don't think it's just Wes Johnson though. It's an organization wide dedication.
Wes Johnson plays his part, and if he gets the credit, good for him.
I think this FO has done a great job assembling an entire organization that is assembled in a manner that the sum is greater than each of the parts.
So, yes, I do expect them to continue to find players like Odor and Perez. They'll have misses along the way, nobody is perfect.
I've long suspected they had an organization wide plan, from day one, that would be difficult for us outsiders to recognize.
I used the brick by brick analogy a few times in the early months and years, and I think we are finally starting to see a finished product on top of the long, but crucial foundational work that was done.
I've been a part of many projects where the foundational and precursial work seems to take forever, but then the majority of the building that the public sees goes up in no time. But it's precisely because so much energy was spent on planning and logistics that it's able to come together so quickly and efficiently.
This post may look rube-ishly naive in a few years if it all goes bad, but I think we are in for a long, sustainable run of excellence here. I have a ton of faith in what these guys are doing. And so, I assume that Falvey and Levine aren't going to wake up one day and suddenly realize they forgot to plan for starting pitching. They know it's importance, and they have a plan, even if we can't see it yet.

All fair, which is why I asked where we thought they were going to get pitching......with a question.

Edited by Mike Sixel, 04 June 2019 - 04:17 PM.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#37 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:30 PM

All fair, which is why I asked where we thought they were going to get pitching......with a question.


When you ask that question (it's not the first time), it comes off as rhetorical. It seems like a criticism of not taking pitching early, in the form of a question.
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#38 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:32 PM

 

All fair, which is why I asked where we thought they were going to get pitching......with a question.

 

Considering, at the time, we were about 5 rounds into a 40 round draft.....doesn't that seem like a premature worry?

 

Here we are having drafted pitchers in four of the last five rounds.So the answer was, and is, through all means.Drafting.Trading.International signings.You seemed to conclude drafting was not an option with about 90% of the actual draft still to go.  

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#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:34 PM

 

Considering, at the time, we were about 5 rounds into a 40 round draft.....doesn't that seem like a premature worry?

 

Here we are having drafted pitchers in four of the last five rounds.So the answer was, and is, through all means.Drafting.Trading.International signings.You seemed to conclude drafting was not an option with about 90% of the actual draft still to go.  

 

Not to me, because as you point out, past round 1 or 2, there just isn't much likelihood they work out. Like OL past round 3 for the Vikings, so yes, that's the same argument (just the number of rounds is less in MLB). Note, I didn't say anything about not drafting pitchers, I said it about not drafting them early.

 

 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#40 TheLeviathan

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Posted 04 June 2019 - 04:34 PM

 

I was using the same data. For HS arms going from the 2nd to 5th round the % chance of making it is cut in half. It's not as extreme for college arms but if you go 1st to 5th the % chance is again slashed in half. I'd consider that fairly significant even if your odds are !:4 at best. 

 

True, but the further you go in the draft the more those level off.The odds, in general, for baseball are far lower than in other sports, hence why I really bristle at that comparison. 

 

Also, if we're going to talk about playing the odds, hitters have significantly better odds than pitching across all rounds as well.