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Article: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

trevor larnach wander javier jordan balazovic will smith sean doolittle
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#161 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 10:25 AM

 

Completely agree, though that's not to say I think they should be actively looking to trade them. However, if Washington - just as a made-up example - were willing to give up Strasburg for one of the three plus a mid-tier prospect, wouldn't that be pretty appealing? Or even one of them straight up for Scherzer (or some real reckless speculation here: Strasburg and Scherzer for 2 of the 3, plus 2-3 mid-tier prospects). Our lineup backing up Scherzer/Strasburg, Berrios, Perez in a short playoff series inspires a lot more confidence than Berrios, Perez, Gibson/Odo. 

 

I don't see Washington trading either... They are having a bad year, but I think they are more likely to get rid of expiring contracts... But let's say one is on the market, yeah, we're sending one of the top 3 their way. No way around that. I guess the question is who.

 

I'd side with sending Kirilloff away personally, though I wouldn't lose sleep over Lewis or Graterol. My preference though would be to keep them. If I were to create an untouchables list, it would probably be starting pitching candidates such as Blazovich or Graterol… Flip side on Graterol though is that he's always hurt, so perhaps he's the guy to send packing. I'm a bit leery of pitchers who have great upside but cannot stay healthy. 

 

The nice thing about the way this team is composed is that I don't think they will need to raid the farm system to strengthen themselves for the playoffs. They can sign Kimbrel if they think he can contribute (and I've got to think he'd be interested in coming here right now too). That's just cash. I think they should pick up one more reliever via trade. Will Smith or someone like that would certainly work. He won't come cheap, but he won't cost one of the top prospects. 

 

I do think that some of our AAA pitching gets sent away. I'm fine with that too. None of them are going to be top pieces in a trade, but we have too many and they are still useful as 2nd/3rd pieces. Plus, a tanking team can develop a guy like that in the majors and potentially flip him for prospects in a few years even if he turns out to be mediocre. 


#162 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 10:37 AM

Every time I read people say so and so is untouchable,I look at Romero's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is untouchable....
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#163 ashbury

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 10:52 AM

Every time I read people say so and so is untouchable,I look at Romero's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is untouchable....

Every time I read people say we should go out and acquire a controllable ace, I look at Syndergaard's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is a sure thing.... :)

 

I don't have the numbers, but perhaps prospects do flame out in greater numbers than established veterans suddenly fizzle - and then either one bounce back. But that's why you have bundle more than one of the good youngsters to get the good veteran. There just aren't any sure paths to acquiring the top-end talent we all want.

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I'm not slurring my words, I'm talking in cursive.


#164 darin617

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 11:21 AM

 

I have questions about Bumgardner. In a trade or in free agency we would be paying the price for the Bumgardner that was the world series MVP, which is to say it will cost a lot. He currently carries a mid 4 ERA in the national league and doesn't seem to be getting past the 6th inning. Has he just been pitching in bad luck or has age started to take its toll? 

 

Few other things against Madbum, i would expect most of his starts this year are not against teams with a DH and he would be happy on a contender to try to turn it into a huge contract this offseason but being here would limit him being able to hit.
 


#165 DutchFarmer

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 11:32 AM

 

The Pohlad's aren't authorizing a $189 million payroll, which is what adding Scherzer AND Strasburg would bring us to.

 

Yeah, you're likely right. Though, to be fair, due to pro-ration it would be a lot less. Additionally, I'm guessing Strasburg opts out this offseason, so the future allotment would also be a lot less. With that being said, it was just a pie-in-the-sky thought...


#166 Linus

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 01:15 PM

Every time I read people say so and so is untouchable,I look at Romero's numbers this year..... And wonder why anyone thinks anyone is untouchable....


Agreed. I would say Graterol / Balazovic are off limits. Everyone else is in play including Lewis

#167 spycake

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 01:44 PM

 

Yeah, you're likely right. Though, to be fair, due to pro-ration it would be a lot less. Additionally, I'm guessing Strasburg opts out this offseason, so the future allotment would also be a lot less. With that being said, it was just a pie-in-the-sky thought...

Pro-ration would only matter for 2019 -- although even just a half-season of those two pitchers would add $35 mil to our 2019 payroll, putting us up around $155 mil. 

 

Strasburg and Scherzer are due a combined $61 mil AAV over the next 2.5-4.5 years. If Strasburg didn't opt out, we'd either have to slash significant payroll elsewhere or we'd be up over $180 mil for 2020. Even without Strasburg, Scherzer would push it to $155 mil.


#168 spycake

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 01:48 PM

 

If you trade for an ace that is being paid ace like money you better be sure he will continue to be an ace.

Ace money in average annual value, sure. But if you're trading for a guy, you're getting a significant discount in terms of years -- aces on the open market get 6-7 year guarantees, as opposed to the 2.5 years remaining on Greinke's deal.

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#169 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 02:46 PM

Would love to trade for an ace starter but it seems very unlikely to me. I see Scherzer as the only possibility who's really still an "ace" and I just don't see Washington giving up on the next two or three seasons and starting over. You keep a Scherzer if you think you can compete next year or the year after. Same for Strasburg.

 

I think it's much more likely that we target and get a good bullpen arm. The two that make the most sense to me are Will Smith of the Giants and Sean Doolittle of the Nats.Both on expiring contracts, both left handed, both would cost a good prospect or two but shouldn't cost a great prospect or two. The Giants also have Sam Dyson and even an older guy like Meloncon, Watson or Vincent would help. They need OFs badly and a guy like Cave, Raley, Wade or Rooker could have real value to them. Washington needs bullpen help (can't really help them there), young starting pitching and someone to play 2B after the dump Dozier.Maybe we trade Arreazfor Doolittle and someone or Blankenthorn and a AAA pitcher like Ltttel for Doolittle? Hard to find the good fit with the Nats... I say have the Giants on speed dial. 


#170 KFEY93

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 04:26 PM

 

That seems like unnecessary fanaticism.

DONT JUDGE ME!:P


#171 Major League Ready

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 04:47 PM

 

Ace money in average annual value, sure. But if you're trading for a guy, you're getting a significant discount in terms of years -- aces on the open market get 6-7 year guarantees, as opposed to the 2.5 years remaining on Greinke's deal.

 

True.It's also true that historically SPs receiving those contracts have performed much better the 1st 3 years than the last three years. The Verlanders of the world are in the minority. Sherzer's contract is also heavily back end weighted. There is no way the Twins are taking on this year and two more at an AAV of $42M, especially given he is already 34 y/o.

Edited by Major League Ready, 27 May 2019 - 04:53 PM.


#172 spycake

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 05:50 PM

True. It's also true that historically SPs receiving those contracts have performed much better the 1st 3 years than the last three years.


Sure, although the context of my post was that a 2.5 year contract isn't really "paying for an ace" as compared to the FA market. So we don't necessarily need to receive ace performance, or equal performance to the last 3 years, to make taking on the remaining 2.5 year deal worthwhile. The Astros didn't need Verlander to be an ace to justify their cost, for example.

Although I'd guess the year 4-6 forecast is a bit better for guys that have been great over years 1-3.
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#173 spycake

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Posted 27 May 2019 - 06:06 PM

Sherzer's contract is also heavily back end weighted. There is no way the Twins are taking on this year and two more at an AAV of $42M, especially given he is already 34 y/o.

It's a little backloaded, but the salary figure is only $35 mil AAV for 2019-2021. (The Nationals are responsible for any future signing bonus payments.)

With deferrals, the present day value might even be about 10% lower. (MLB valued the original $210 mil deal at $191 mil for luxury tax purposes.)

https://legacy.baseb...gton-nationals/

Still a lot of money, but worth it to a number of clubs (including Washington, which is why I wouldn't expect him to be traded).

Edited by spycake, 27 May 2019 - 06:14 PM.




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