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Article: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?

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#21 cmoss84

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:10 PM

If Syndergaard and Scherzer are both "available" come the trade deadline, it would be an interesting debate in regards to which direction to go.

 

What would you do if this is what we would give up for both?

 

A: Syndergaard

FA in 2022. Young, cheap. Chance of extending if all goes well. 

We give up Lewis, Graterol, Gordon.

 

B: Scherzer

FA in 2022. 34, but still one of the best in the game. VERY expensive. 

We give up: Graterol, Rortvedt and Gordon. Washington eats 1/3 of his contract. 

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#22 spycake

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:12 PM

 

I would like Syndergaard, but if the Mets keep hanging around .500 he probably won't be available. They have a bunch of key guys on the IL with short term injuries and their stud arms haven't rounded into form yet. I'm cheering against them for the sole purpose of trying to get my hands on their pitching staff, but my money is on the Mets going on a decent run in near future.

Agreed.

 

And not only do I expect the Mets to hang around close enough this year, but they're built to win now. They already signed deGrom long term, and Conforto, Syndergaard, and Matz are controlled through 2021, Diaz and Lugo through 2022, plus a few more pieces beyond that. It would probably take a king's ransom to pry one of those guys away, even if they fall out of the 2019 race.

 

Best Mets bet for 2019, if they fall out of the race, would be pending FA Zack Wheeler.

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#23 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:13 PM

If Syndergaard and Scherzer are both "available" come the trade deadline, it would be an interesting debate in regards to which direction to go.

What would you do if this is what we would give up for both?

A: Syndergaard
FA in 2022. Young, cheap. Chance of extending if all goes well.
We give up Lewis, Graterol, Gordon.

B: Scherzer
FA in 2022. 34, but still one of the best in the game. VERY expensive.
We give up: Graterol, Rortvedt and Gordon. Washington eats 1/3 of his contract.


B all day long. I love both pitchers, but Thor has a more decorated injury history than Scherzer. I think Scherzer, like Verlander, is a unicorn in the MLB. One of the last remaining ace pitchers you can confidently predict 200+ innings every year.
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#24 markos

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:15 PM

 

I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

 

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

Scherzer's situation is complicated. He is under contract for two more years yet has 7yr, $105M from 2022-2028 in deferred salary. I don't know what kind of value with that kind of financial commitment hanging over his head.

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#25 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:16 PM

 

If Syndergaard and Scherzer are both "available" come the trade deadline, it would be an interesting debate in regards to which direction to go.

 

What would you do if this is what we would give up for both?

 

A: Syndergaard

FA in 2022. Young, cheap. Chance of extending if all goes well. 

We give up Lewis, Graterol, Gordon.

 

B: Scherzer

FA in 2022. 34, but still one of the best in the game. VERY expensive. 

We give up: Graterol, Rortvedt and Gordon. Washington eats 1/3 of his contract. 

 

I would definitely trade that for Scherzer. Not sure Washington would accept.

 

His contract is a mess too. Most of that money is deferred. I'm not sure the Twins (or many other teams) would want to take on deferred money... and there's $105m of his contract that is deferred.

 

It would be a fun thought exercise though.


#26 USAFChief

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:16 PM

 

B all day long. I love both pitchers, but Thor has a more decorated injury history than Scherzer. I think Scherzer, like Verlander, is a unicorn in the MLB. One of the last remaining ace pitchers you can confidently predict 200+ innings every year.

I'd bet a lot of money Scherzer is the more valuable pitcher between today and the end of the 2021 season.

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#27 nicksaviking

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:19 PM

 

I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

 

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

 

I'd trade one of the top guys for Scherzer, but he's got a Bobby Bonilla contract. I might think that deal is almost trade-proof, particularly after it's pointed out to the buying team's owners that they'll still be paying this guy 5 years after he retires.

 

Not to mention the actual total for two and a half years of service is going to cost about 100M. Sign me up, but uh, we'd probably have to take back every terrible thing we've ever said about a Pohlad if they take on that one.

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#28 redstorm

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:19 PM

 

If Syndergaard and Scherzer are both "available" come the trade deadline, it would be an interesting debate in regards to which direction to go.

 

What would you do if this is what we would give up for both?

 

A: Syndergaard

FA in 2022. Young, cheap. Chance of extending if all goes well. 

We give up Lewis, Graterol, Gordon.

 

B: Scherzer

FA in 2022. 34, but still one of the best in the game. VERY expensive. 

We give up: Graterol, Rortvedt and Gordon. Washington eats 1/3 of his contract. 

 

IMO there's a zero percent chance of Washington doing that. I would think they'd want a package similar to the one you laid out for Syndergaard, probably even more than that..especially if you're making them eat 1/3 of the contract.


#29 Vanimal46

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:19 PM

I'd bet a lot of money Scherzer is the more valuable pitcher between today and the end of the 2021 season.


Concur. Both are top of the rotation arms, but I feel way more confident about Scherzer's ability to start 30+ games a season over Thor.
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#30 spycake

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:19 PM

 

Differing opinions and all, but what you state is exactly why I think what I stated. "Their guys" have done pretty great. If there are "not their guys" who they don't love, but who have value to someone else, why wouldn't they want to change out even more of them?

 

But my opinion and a dime will get you a dime.

Sorry, by "their guys" I meant the previous FO's guys. (Darn pronouns!)

 

Despite all the issues with the previous FO, they assembled a talented collection of ballplayers, and I think the current FO recognizes that as much as anyone.

 

To the extent this factor could even be a tiebreaker, say between Thorpe and Smeltzer, I'm guessing it's not worth holding up a deal over it.

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#31 AJswarley

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:20 PM

I would make no one “off limits”, look at how Gordon’s stock completely dropped out. It can happen to any prospect at any level. That is why they are a prospect.

Now a FO more than likely will have an “out of the question” price tag on a few guys but I think the real question is to trade Sano.

I think Sano can real in a big name in a trade. I know he reminds everyone of Big Papi (twin fans will never forget), but I am starting to think he is just never going to live up to the hype/ stay healthy unless he is strictly DH. Also is he that important to the team winning/ will he ever sign to stay with the team, should also be considered.

I would love to have a big name ACE in front of Berrios. Also a LHP in the starting rotation would be nice.
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#32 USAFChief

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:22 PM

 

I would definitely trade that for Scherzer. Not sure Washington would accept.

 

His contract is a mess too. Most of that money is deferred. I'm not sure the Twins (or many other teams) would want to take on deferred money... and there's $105m of his contract that is deferred.

 

It would be a fun thought exercise though.

The deferred money is his 2019-2021 contract salary.

 

He's owed $35M in each of 2019, 2020, and 2021, but those salaries are deferred, without interest, to $15M in each of 2022 thru 2028.

 

It actually makes the contract cheaper in real dollars (tomorrow's money worth less than today) and easier to swallow year to year. 

 

It'd be no fun to pay him $15M a year for 7 years, but it's not a huge amount per year.

 

And it might lower the price in terms of prospects.

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#33 KFEY93

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:32 PM

 

I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

 

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

I would crap my Pants if we got Scherzer. That bumps everyone down in the rotation and moves Pineda to the pen. That type of pitching along with our offense...look out MLB. We would match up with Houston quite well. 

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#34 spycake

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:33 PM

 

Scherzer's situation is complicated. He is under contract for two more years yet has 7yr, $105M from 2022-2028 in deferred salary. I don't know what kind of value with that kind of financial commitment hanging over his head.

 

 

I would definitely trade that for Scherzer. Not sure Washington would accept.

 

His contract is a mess too. Most of that money is deferred. I'm not sure the Twins (or many other teams) would want to take on deferred money... and there's $105m of his contract that is deferred.

 

It would be a fun thought exercise though.

 

According to Cot's, the deferred money in Scherzer's deal is simply his 2019-2021 salaries ($35 mil each year, $105 mil total, deferred without interest to be paid over 2022-2028), so that's not too bad. 

 

https://legacy.baseb...gton-nationals/

 

But he also has signing bonus installments due. $7.5 mil yet this year, and $15 mil in each of 2020-2021, so $37.5 mil. I'm guessing Washington would have to take on most of that, as it was largely used to suppress his early year salaries.

 

"for luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer’s annual salary is $28,689,376" so I could see that as the baseline expectation for any deal -- the acquiring team takes on 3/84 or so (less the first half this year, I guess).

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#35 spycake

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:34 PM

 

The deferred money is his 2019-2021 contract salary.

 

He's owed $35M in each of 2019, 2020, and 2021, but those salaries are deferred, without interest, to $15M in each of 2022 thru 2028.

 

It actually makes the contract cheaper in real dollars (tomorrow's money worth less than today) and easier to swallow year to year. 

 

It'd be no fun to pay him $15M a year for 7 years, but it's not a huge amount per year.

 

And it might lower the price in terms of prospects.

Beat me to the punch!

 

Edit: although I disagree with your last line, as I don't think this would lower the prospect price.

Edited by spycake, 24 May 2019 - 12:35 PM.

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#36 scottz

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:37 PM

 

Sorry, by "their guys" I meant the previous FO's guys. (Darn pronouns!)

 

Despite all the issues with the previous FO, they assembled a talented collection of ballplayers, and I think the current FO recognizes that as much as anyone.

 

To the extent this factor could even be a tiebreaker, say between Thorpe and Smeltzer, I'm guessing it's not worth holding up a deal over it.

Their guys, not their guys, they're all our guys until they become someone else's guys.

 

You may be right. And as noted, depending on who they are trading for, they obviously would have to include bigger and/or different chips than whoever is on their preferred list of trade candidates. In any case, we'll never know who they really wanted to trade or keep, only who they did trade or keep.

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#37 spycake

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:37 PM

FWIW, Scherzer's deal does NOT contain any no-trade protection -- but he will gain full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player at the end of the 2019 season.

 

So if they want to trade him, there might be some impetus to get a deal done during the 2019 season.

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#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:37 PM

If I was a betting man, I think they'll trade for Mike Minor, and not one of the big names being thrown around.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#39 scottz

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:38 PM

 

I would crap my Pants if we got Scherzer.

That seems like unnecessary fanaticism.

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#40 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 12:38 PM

As long as we’re not going after Scherzer or Syndergard, the FO should be able to reasonably improve the team without giving up any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, Miranda, Duran, and Javier; all of which I’d view as untouchables (not all for the same reasons though) Look, I get that this Twins team is shaping up to be a historical one, but there’s no doubt in my mind that this is just the beginning. Which is why I wouldn’t put all my eggs in the 2019 season basket by pursuing an ace who’d likely cost us Lewis, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers; potentially killing the possibility of any long term success.

Personally, the most expensive pitcher I’d target would be Stroman, not only because I believe he’d be a perfect addition to this team in more ways than just his performance, but because he also wouldn’t put a major dent in our farm system either.
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