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Article: Where's the Weakness?

nelson cruz trevor hildenberger cj cron michael pineda martin perez
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#21 the_brute_squad

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 12:36 PM

I still need to be convinced that Berrios is the #1 horse. The last two starts were less than impressive. I know he's young and has room for improvement but I still don't have the feeling that I had when Santana or Viola hit the mound in their prime. I'll be more convinced when he faces the above .500 teams and comes out with 7 quality innings and a W.


#22 segagenesisgenius

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 12:37 PM

 

My opinion?Lack of pitching depth at AAA.

 

They have twelve, yes TWELVE pitchers with ERAs over 6, including the team leader in saves (6.63!).

 

While true, I would rephrase this to "poor performance of pitching at AAA" rather than "lack of pitching depth at AAA"Perhaps a small difference, but I would argue that there is a massive chasm between legit prospects who are struggling (such as Romero or Zack Littel) and have terrible or even middling prospects that are doing fine.Obviously neither is great, and I would prefer that our prospects were thriving, but the most accurate way of putting it is that our very good players that are in AAA are currently mainly slumping, such that they do not appear to be of much use to us at the moment. 


#23 jimbo92107

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 12:58 PM

If Santa is asking, I'll have a healthy Hildy and a right-handed Taylor Rogers. Then I'm fine. If not, then bring up Romero again. Gotta find one more reliable two-inning guy. 

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#24 Doomtints

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 01:03 PM

I imagine this team will be unable to hit the ball as well against a true ace or a top tier bullpen. This is why the Twins need some better pitching so they can still win some games when they only manage to plate a couple of runs.

 

If the Twins ever get this -- either a very good bullpen or continued performance by the starters -- I will start to believe they can beat the Yankees in the playoffs.

Edited by Doomtints, 23 May 2019 - 01:07 PM.

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#25 Doomtints

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 01:11 PM

 

I still need to be convinced that Berrios is the #1 horse. The last two starts were less than impressive. I know he's young and has room for improvement but I still don't have the feeling that I had when Santana or Viola hit the mound in their prime. I'll be more convinced when he faces the above .500 teams and comes out with 7 quality innings and a W.

 

I have pulled the data. "Aces" are typically good 60% of the time. That's it.

 

Conversely, the junky pitchers who manage to stick around a while are good 40-45% of the time. Most pitchers are good about half the time.

 

The point is, aces will lay quite a few eggs during the season. We all have to realize this. Runs are scored in nearly every baseball game and all pitchers allow them. "Aces" have fewer bad games, but they still have them.

Edited by Doomtints, 23 May 2019 - 01:18 PM.

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#26 Trov

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 01:24 PM

At this point it is hard to say much is a "weakness" but to me it is more what is biggest question of success moving forward.Offense I am not too worried about, they have shown this is not just a hot start and different guys had picked it up through out the season.It is possible adjustments to their aggressive approach will be made and they could struggle, but not too worried.

 

Starting staff there are huge questions going forward this season, as there were coming into season.It is great what Perez and Odo have been doing, but compared to rest of career it is was off line.Does this happen for some pitchers to have break out years, in particular when learn a new pitch like Perez, yes, but will it sustain?That is big question. 

 

Bullpen, is very similar to starting staff question.Back end of Parker and Rodgers their success is not all that surprising, nor May.The rest though that have performed well so far is surprising and they could start falling off at any time and then the real question is what will team do?Will they bring in other guys, put more innings on top end guys, or just hope the guys work through it? 

 

I think the Starters are biggest question, because two guys are working much better than expected and above career marks, over several seasons of career.I think if they start to falter it was have domino effect on bullpen and no matter how strong offense is, it is always hard for offense to carry a team over full season and in playoffs. 


#27 Jham

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 02:21 PM

I think our weaknesses are 1) lack of top-end talent, 2) lack of pennant race experience, 3) Bullpen talent.

We have a very solid group of players with production at almost all spots. As others have referenced, we lack an ace, some teams have more than 1. Taylor Rogers may or may not be that unhittable closer, many teams have more than 1. Polanco is playing like Trout, but he isn't Trout or Bellinger or Yelich. We're solid but with probably no "best in baseball" players.

We made a run in 2017 and looked overmatched in the race for the division and in a 1 game playoff. Many of the key pieces of that team are gone. Sano was out. Most of our rotation and bullpen has no playoff experience. We haven't faced any major adversity yet. When the pressure mounts and the are no do-overs, experience usually helps.

Finally, the pen has performed great, and Vasquez, Brusdar, and Romero are potential wild cards. That said, we've seen Hilde implode, we've seen May get injured. If Rogers went down, we'd be scrambling. Luckily, Penn is usually one of the easiest places to upgrade... historically. OTOH, the league has changed. Reliable is still easy to find. Lock-down arms are now a premium commodity. Twins bucked the trend on bull pen construction and are thus far beating the trend. Playoffs with More off days tends to favor the strongest pen, not necessarily the deepest.

Edited by Jham, 23 May 2019 - 02:24 PM.


#28 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 05:54 PM

I have pulled the data. "Aces" are typically good 60% of the time. That's it.

Conversely, the junky pitchers who manage to stick around a while are good 40-45% of the time. Most pitchers are good about half the time.

The point is, aces will lay quite a few eggs during the season. We all have to realize this. Runs are scored in nearly every baseball game and all pitchers allow them. "Aces" have fewer bad games, but they still have them.


I think you are using far too many pitchers as "aces" if that's what your data shows.
The first ace I thought to pull up was Max Scherzer, and his results last year were 16 good starts to 1 clunker, or 94%.
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#29 Doomtints

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 06:02 PM

 

I think you are using far too many pitchers as "aces" if that's what your data shows.
The first ace I thought to pull up was Max Scherzer, and his results last year were 16 good starts to 1 clunker, or 94%.

 

Or we are using different definitions. I count 10 mediocre games or worse (3+ runs or 5 innings or less). That's 70% -- the reason he was a Cy Young candidate.
 

Are there any other aces you know of other than the best starter in the game for the past 3 years? Seems to me the rest of the league is a big drop off from Scherzer. A drop off to, what, ~60% by this definition maybe?

Edited by Doomtints, 23 May 2019 - 06:04 PM.

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#30 ashbury

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 08:47 PM

I didn't get around to saying that third base was the area that I was a bit concerned about. Thank goodness I kept quiet until after today's game, otherwise I would have sounded like a fool!

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#31 DiscGolfer

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 09:03 PM

 

I still need to be convinced that Berrios is the #1 horse. The last two starts were less than impressive. I know he's young and has room for improvement but I still don't have the feeling that I had when Santana or Viola hit the mound in their prime. I'll be more convinced when he faces the above .500 teams and comes out with 7 quality innings and a W.

 

So basically he needs to win a Cy Young award? 


#32 TheLeviathan

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 10:47 PM

I think, looking forward towards the playoffs, they need guys on the mound that can be given the ball and intimidate the other team.So I have 1A and 1B as "weaknesses" but it's probably better defined as places the team should look to upgrade.

 

1A - go get a big game starting pitcher.MadBum would be my preference, but I highly doubt he would sign an extension.So I would put Greinke high on the list too.  

 

Or if we want to get crazy?What if the Nats go sell-mode?Scherzer is too much probably, but a guy can dream, right?

 

1B - a reliever you can throw in and trust they can get anyone out.I'm sure we can peruse the league and find some options, but think Andrew Miller and the Indians.  


#33 the_brute_squad

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 05:12 AM

 

So basically he needs to win a Cy Young award? 

I wouldn't mind a Cy Young for the young man! My point is he isn't a Verlander, Scherzer, or name your ace pitcher of the past. He's a notch or two below that level. I may be proven wrong and maybe he'll be the stopper if we're on a losing streak. The guy that stands on the mound and the opposing team hopes they can eek out a couple of runs. I guarantee that if the Yankees, Sox, Rays, Astros face Berrios they don't feel the intimidation other aces create when they're on the hill


#34 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 05:25 AM

 

Depth at the back end of the rotation could be a weakness. If one of the top three starters were to be hurt or start underperforming, the rest of the rotation could struggle. Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Lewis Thorpe, and Zack Littell are waiting in Rochester. Could they be trusted taking over a spot in the rotation?

 

This is probably worth it's own post here. I'm not terribly worried about these guys for a couple weeks or even if one pitcher goes down. It's a bigger issue if multiple pitchers go down for a long time, but to be fair, every team in baseball is in a similar spot... very few have even potential #1s sitting in the high minors, much less real ones... These 4 have some upside, perhaps not a ton (I still think Thorpe could be really good, but I'm losing faith on the rest), and are perfectly capable of handling things in a short stint, especially with Cleveland not keeping up.

 

I suspect at least one of them will be packaged in a trade this summer to get help. But as the season wears on, there's less time where this is even a big deal. 

 

Bottom line, if things continue to progress, the FO needs to be thinking about playoff rosters and not worrying as much about depth.

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#35 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 05:59 AM

Or we are using different definitions. I count 10 mediocre games or worse (3+ runs or 5 innings or less). That's 70% -- the reason he was a Cy Young candidate.

Are there any other aces you know of other than the best starter in the game for the past 3 years? Seems to me the rest of the league is a big drop off from Scherzer. A drop off to, what, ~60% by this definition maybe?


Scherzer gave up 3+ earned runs exactly once, and went less than 6 innings exactly once. Might be time to recheck your math.

#36 USAFChief

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 06:02 AM

I think, looking forward towards the playoffs, they need guys on the mound that can be given the ball and intimidate the other team. So I have 1A and 1B as "weaknesses" but it's probably better defined as places the team should look to upgrade.

1A - go get a big game starting pitcher. MadBum would be my preference, but I highly doubt he would sign an extension. So I would put Greinke high on the list too.

Or if we want to get crazy? What if the Nats go sell-mode? Scherzer is too much probably, but a guy can dream, right?

1B - a reliever you can throw in and trust they can get anyone out. I'm sure we can peruse the league and find some options, but think Andrew Miller and the Indians.


Scherzer has been on my mind for a while now.

Washington isnt going anywhere. Push hard for Scherzer. That moves everyone down in the rotation, and maybe Pineda becomes a weapon in the pen.

Go big or go home.

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#37 TheLeviathan

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 07:07 AM

 

Scherzer has been on my mind for a while now.

Washington isnt going anywhere. Push hard for Scherzer. That moves everyone down in the rotation, and maybe Pineda becomes a weapon in the pen.

Go big or go home.

 

His contract is totally reasonable and not a challenge for this team to absorb.Berrios and Scherzer match up with anyone.

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#38 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 07:20 AM

 

Which weakness could hurt the team in the long run?

The Bullpen
 

 

You answered your own question correctly right here


#39 Doomtints

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 10:08 AM

 

Scherzer gave up 3+ earned runs exactly once, and went less than 6 innings exactly once. Might be time to recheck your math.

 

Exactly once.

 

scherzer.png

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#40 AustinW

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Posted 24 May 2019 - 11:29 AM

The weakness definitely isn't in the defense. I think that's something that's really getting overlooked. According to FanGraphs, we have the top ranked defense by a large margin. Especially in the outfield, Buxton is 1st in cf in majors, Kepler is 3rd in majors in rf and 1st in al, and Rosario is 2nd in majors and al.
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