The Twins rest-of-season Fangraphs projection is a 53% win rate, which would equate to 86 wins over the course of a full season. Given the banked wins, it seems to me that over 91 (now 92?) is a better bet, particularly considering the weakness of the AL Central. Maybe 93 or 94.
Plus, there aren't many warning signs from a team-wide statistical standpoint. The Twins do not appear to have benefited from BABIP luck either offensively or defensively. Other metrics are a mixed bag, but nothing dramatic stands out.
I think the biggest issue is pitching depth. The rotation actually worries me more than the bullpen, because scrounging up relievers is a lot easier than finding starters. The Twins' #6 and #7 starters are not what a club in their position would like to have (week to week it's difficult to even say who those would be). Their 'top' AAA starters have xFIPs in the mid-4s. Hopefully at least one of them starts putting things together, to present a viable #6 option.
Edited by drivlikejehu, 17 May 2019 - 11:39 PM.