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So when do we believe?

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#1 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:27 PM

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

 

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

 

So what's your over/under on that?

 

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

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#2 70charger

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 10:57 PM

I'd take the over but not by much. This is not a 100+ win team, and this torrid pace isn't likely to continue. Low 90s is what I'd expect.

 

Still think they're likely to win the division, which would be great to see after nearly a decade.

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#3 drivlikejehu

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:02 PM

The Twins rest-of-season Fangraphs projection is a 53% win rate, which would equate to 86 wins over the course of a full season. Given the banked wins, it seems to me that over 91 (now 92?) is a better bet, particularly considering the weakness of the AL Central. Maybe 93 or 94.

 

Plus, there aren't many warning signs from a team-wide statistical standpoint. The Twins do not appear to have benefited from BABIP luck either offensively or defensively. Other metrics are a mixed bag, but nothing dramatic stands out. 

 

I think the biggest issue is pitching depth. The rotation actually worries me more than the bullpen, because scrounging up relievers is a lot easier than finding starters. The Twins' #6 and #7 starters are not what a club in their position would like to have (week to week it's difficult to even say who those would be). Their 'top' AAA starters have xFIPs in the mid-4s. Hopefully at least one of them starts putting things together, to present a viable #6 option.

Edited by drivlikejehu, 17 May 2019 - 11:39 PM.

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#4 Carole Keller

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:03 PM

I won't believe anything until I see where we are on August 17. But I'll certainly enjoy watching more of what I've seen so far until then.

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#5 Dantes929

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:35 PM

 

The Twins rest-of-season Fangraphs projection is a 53% win rate, which would equate to 86 wins over the course of a full season. It seems to me that the over is a better bet, particularly considering the weakness of the AL Central. Maybe 93 or 94.

 

Plus, there aren't many warning signs from a team-wide statistical standpoint. The Twins do not appear to have benefited from BABIP luck either offensively or defensively. Other metrics are a mixed bag, but nothing dramatic stands out. 

 

I think the biggest issue is pitching depth. The rotation actually worries me more than the bullpen, because scrounging up relievers is a lot easier than finding starters. The Twins' #6 and #7 starters are not what a club in their position would like to have (week to week it's difficult to even say who those would be). Their 'top' AAA starters have xFIPs in the mid-4s. Hopefully at least one of them starts putting things together, to present a viable #6 option.

Either your premise is faulty or your math.  They are currently 29-15.You said their rest of season win rate projection is 53%.  118 remaining games times .53 + 29 is 92. If they just win half their remaining games they are at 88 games.   

 

What's to believe? I believe if they continue to play well they can make the playoffs. I believe if they win 107 games (current pace) or more they can still get beat by anyone. I believe if they eke into the playoffs with 87 or fewer wins they are still capable of getting hot and lucky and beating anyone.What I want is for them to be in contention in September and let the drama unfold as it may. Its all I ever want from them.  

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#6 psturnbloom

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:37 PM

I think I'll take the...over?

 

It's tough to say. Some days I have a lot of confidence (like when we won our third game at home over the Astros), and other days I feel like the other shoe is about to drop (watching our bullpen barely hang onto wins in the Angels series). I'm nervous, but I feel like the talent is there, especially in our lineup. If we're still able to pummel bad teams like the Mariners when two of our top sluggers are out of the lineup, that tells me we're going to continue to win games division-contenders should win.

 

I think I'll start to calm down more when I see us win more series against Cleveland. A sweep against them the next time we see them would be really nice.

 

We still need another strong bullpen arm, though. I submit that we find a different #5 starter and move Pineda to the bullpen. He's been lights out the first time through the order. Let's move that success of his to higher-leverage late innings!

Edited by psturnbloom, 17 May 2019 - 11:38 PM.

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#7 drivlikejehu

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:40 PM

 

Either your premise is faulty or your math.  They are currently 29-15.You said their rest of season win rate projection is 53%.  118 remaining games times .53 + 29 is 92. If they just win half their remaining games they are at 88 games. 

 

You misread me, but I could have worded it better, and made a tweak in that regard. The 86 wins comment was only to put the 53% in context, because most fans think of win totals rather than winning %.

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#8 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 May 2019 - 11:46 PM

 

I think I'll start to calm down more when I see us win more series against Cleveland. A sweep against them the next time we see them would be really nice.

That's interesting because I'm looking past Cleveland. Unless the Twins are swept, I'm not worried about them much.

 

I suspect this team can build a 7+ game cushion against Cleveland because Cleveland just ain't that good with their stars (injured) and scrubs (definitely not good) roster.

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#9 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 04:07 AM

 

I won't believe anything until I see where we are on August 17. But I'll certainly enjoy watching more of what I've seen so far until then.

Why Aug 17?


#10 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 04:08 AM

I said at the beginning of this month that I'd start believing if they kept it up for another month. So far, they have. Personally, I'm getting pretty excited. This team looks like a playoff team.

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#11 Sconnie

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 05:26 AM

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

So what's your over/under on that?

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

I’m a bit leery of letting my guard down. I seem to recall thinking the Twins were an 85 win team in Spring Training. If the play at that pace the rest of the way, it’s 92 wins. I’ll take the over.

I don’t think they are a 107 win team, but maybe 95. That would be 66-52 the rest of the way or 91 win pace over a full season.

Over clearly. I’m with you. Cleveland doesn’t have enough depth to overcome the Twins.

Edited by Sconnie, 18 May 2019 - 05:30 AM.

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#12 dbminn

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:09 AM

I'll take the over but I think it will be close. Pitching depth is the big issue. 

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#13 Platoon

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:13 AM

Some of the power numbers being put up by the hitters seem unsustainable, and the underpinnings of both the SP and RP don't appear to support the results. Will it all cave in? Hard to say. Magical seasons occur in baseball. But the pragmatist in me still thinks if it's too good to be true, it likely is. Baseball history is full of half season wonders. I do think they will still win the division. Frankly with the injuries Cleveland has sustained, and the rest of the division it's almost impossible not to win it. As for a playoff run? Give me pitching over hitting anyway!
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#14 akmanak

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:22 AM

Everytime I have believed in the Twins they have faulted horribly, but it is getting hard not to believe in this team. I am just enjoying the beat downs we are giving medicore teams right now.
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#15 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:22 AM

 

This team is 28-15, on the verge of 29-15. They are just +1 in pythag, just +1 in BaseRuns (if you look at the numbers, it's fractional and they're basically +0 after tonight).

 

I have to admit that I've been a pretty hard sell on this team and I still expect them to regress. Fangraphs has them at a 91 win pace. I don't disagree.

 

So what's your over/under on that?

 

I'm gonna fan out for a minute and go the over.

 

Pretty sure I said 92 to start the year, so I guess I'm still over BTW... I'd have to go back and look though.


#16 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:29 AM

Offense is bulletproof. 

 

I'll need to see the pitching depth. I'm worried we don't have sufficient depth but I want to be clear that I'm not saying we don't have it.

 

I'm saying... I'll need to see it or see how Rocco can navigate when a major arm goes down. 

 

We've been healthy thus far on the mound, who steps up when we are not is the question that needs to be answered. 

 

I am firmly in prepare for playoffs mode. We will be in them but I'm taking the under until I see pitching depth.  

 

 

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#17 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:38 AM

 

Offense is bulletproof. 

 

I'll need to see the pitching depth. I'm worried we don't have sufficient depth but I want to be clear that I'm not saying we don't have it.

 

I'm saying... I'll need to see it or see how Rocco can navigate when a major arm goes down. 

 

We've been healthy thus far on the mound, who steps up when we are not is the question that needs to be answered. 

 

I am firmly in prepare for playoffs mode. We will be in them but I'm taking the under until I see pitching depth.  

 

The nice thing is that there's always relievers at the deadline... and there's also a decent one that will most certainly sign somewhere in a couple weeks.

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#18 Carole Keller

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:41 AM

Why Aug 17?


Lol ... it’s just a random date in the future about two-thirds of the way through.
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#19 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:43 AM

 

The nice thing is that there's always relievers at the deadline... and there's also a decent one that will most certainly sign somewhere in a couple weeks.

 

I agree.

 

Relievers are like the National Enquirer, Chili's Gift Card and Gum, Impulse Buys of the trade deadline. 

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#20 Riverbrian

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Posted 18 May 2019 - 06:44 AM

 

Lol ... it’s just a random date in the future about two-thirds of the way through.

 

I was confused as well. 

 

17th didn't make obvious sense... at least not like the 18th does. :)

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