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Article: MIN 8, LAA 7: Twins Squeak Out Victory

byron buxton ehire adrianza jake odorizzi mike morin trevor hildenberger
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#21 twinssporto

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:11 PM

 

This game was nerve-wracking.

I don’t particularly care for nerve-wracking games in mid-May.

It's early training for October.  

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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#22 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:12 PM

Demote Hildy for sure, but for who? I’d give Romero one more shot before stretching him out and end this experiment, but if not him, than any of Stashak, Stewart, or Alcala would do just fine for now. More importantly, the FO needs to starting working on acquiring either Givens or Doolittle before things get out of hand.

#23 h2oface

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:14 PM

Just about 10 days late sending Hildenberger down. It was so obvious, but they just had to let it get worse and worse. I was surprised that he was on the roster out of spring training after the end of last year and this ST. To give him the 9th today.... what is Baldelli thinking? That he will miraculously change in a day or two? At least he had a few games that he shined to have hope for the remake of his game.

 

This series, it's not just the bullpen. Starters were getting tagged. 9 hits against Odorizzi in 5.1 (18 total against for the game), 12 against Berrios in 5.2 (15 total), and Gibson, who gets the most crap from the boards, 6 against in 5.2 (11 total). The whole staff was pretty bad. Pretty amazing they won two of the 3 one run games.

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#24 wallyrichards

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:17 PM

 

When does Buxton start hitting leadoff?

He can 't handle the pressure! don't mess up a good thing. 

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#25 Cglidds

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:18 PM

Um..Hildy has been sent to Rochester..the boys are 25-0 when leading in 8th..that is not a stat that trends with a weak pen. Harper, Morin, May, Parker, Rodgers, and Duffey are fine..no we do the Minor league shuffle for last spot..25-12 gents..not much to bitch about...and oh yeah, Buck is closing on .280, leading the league in doubles..and nothing hits the ground in the outfield but rain!! Go Teins!
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#26 Cglidds

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:20 PM

Twins!! Doh..ack ack..
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#27 adorduan

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:20 PM

Another Hindenburger sighting today..... sigh...Oh the humanity....


#28 h2oface

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:29 PM

The best thing that can happen is to have a fresh bullpen, and these guys go up and down on the option train. This could be good, or as good as one can hope for at least, given the personel.

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#29 wallyrichards

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:34 PM

Knee jerk reaction. Hilde has done a lot more good than bad. The problem is the manager and how he uses him. Hilde is a 6th or 7th inning guy who pitches to 1, 2 or at most 3 guys. Hes not a closer and Roco should know this. The Angles have his number right now and we need to give him a few days off. I can't believe that Parker couldn't have pitched the ninth. Jesus he's been going 3 or 4 days between appearances I think he's rested enough to give a little more. I can live with siting Rodgers today but Roco almost cost us a sure victory today. I'm not sure but it looks like he's trying to reinvent the game. Its not rocket science when it comes to the bull pens you have long relievers, short relievers, 7th inning guys, set up 8th inning guys and a closer which we're lucky enough to have 2. Roco blew the tie game against Detroit that we lost when he should've used Rodgers in eighth and Parker in the ninth but decided to save them for some dumb reason and now he pulls this bull crap today. I've sung his praises but its looking like dumb luck now. This is a very good team all Roco has to do is stay out of there way. AS Sparky Anderson would say just don't trip them as there running out to the field. Or something like that.  


#30 bighat

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:40 PM

I respect the heck out of Sid Hartman, he'll be a legend for a long time and should get his own statue on Nicolett Mall. That said....I dunno, man. Kinda hard watching him struggle to even get a question out there. I know, I know, I'm sorry.

 

Speaking of struggling. Happy trails, Hildy.

 

This Buxton guy might be finally living up to his potential. I'd love to see him getting more ABs but then again maybe the Twins are paranoid about anything that might seem like a "push". I'll take his .280 and league-leading doubles any day. Nice HR today too, he might hit 15-20 this year.

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#31 wallyrichards

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:41 PM

I forgot one thing. It would be nice to add one more really good left hander to the bull pen. If Roco doesn't screw things up we should be the heavy favored to win our division. 


#32 bighat

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:44 PM

 

I forgot one thing. It would be nice to add one more really good left hander to the bull pen. If Roco doesn't screw things up we should be the heavy favored to win our division. 

 

The Twins are the heavy favorite to win the division already.


#33 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 04:45 PM

Well, Hildenberger down. Had to happen, he's lost the confidence of his manager and the rest of the team... and probably of himself. We probably do need another pitcher given the heavy bullpen usage shown in the chart, particularly with Pineda starting the next game. He could go 6... or he could go 2. One thing we do know - probably ain't gonna be more than 6 and probably will be less. Anybody hear anything about who's coming up?

 

On that note, is Cruz ready to go yet? Kepler needs to sit a game or two. He's hitting .120/.207/.240 over the last 7 days,.158/.231/.246 over the last 15. Time for Gonzalez to get some time in RF. Easier to do that if Cruz can DH and Astudillo can be the 2nd Catcher so the 3 man bench is Astudillo, Adrianza and Kepler so we have everything covered. Give Sano the 3B spot and Kepler can come in for OF defense in the late innings if we need him to with Gonzalez moving to 3B and Sano sitting. 

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#34 rukavina

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:06 PM

By my count the Angels had 55 baserunners in three games and only 15 runs.  That we won two of three has to be a source of some frustration to Angels fans.

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#35 wallyrichards

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:28 PM

 

I respect the heck out of Sid Hartman, he'll be a legend for a long time and should get his own statue on Nicolett Mall. That said....I dunno, man. Kinda hard watching him struggle to even get a question out there. I know, I know, I'm sorry.

 

Speaking of struggling. Happy trails, Hildy.

 

This Buxton guy might be finally living up to his potential. I'd love to see him getting more ABs but then again maybe the Twins are paranoid about anything that might seem like a "push". I'll take his .280 and league-leading doubles any day. Nice HR today too, he might hit 15-20 this year.

I agree about Sid there comes a time when a person needs to retire. Personally I don't agree with sending Hilde down if this is whats happened. I think its kind of chicken ____. The manager needs to take some of the blame for today and for the loss against Detroit. There is a reason all pitchers aren't closers. Except for this last week Hilde has done a great job this year. 


#36 ashbury

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:29 PM

Except that Harper, Magill, Morin, and Duffey have 7 ER in 27 IP this season.

For batters, OPS has supplanted Batting Average as a quick-and-dirty way of seeing how someone's season is going.

 

For relief pitchers, I'm surprised it hasn't also supplanted ERA, since the way earned runs are counted is so eccentric when partial innings are a large part of the landscape.

 

But you're right about Morin and Harper, who have OPS-against of .357 and .482 respectively (none of these stats include this afternoon's game). It's still small-sample terrain, especially for Morin, but so far, they have succeeded beyond expectations.

 

Magill's OPS-against is a less-impressive .707 and Duffey's is .720. Better than league-average, but their ERAs probably overstate their effectiveness.

 

Hildenberger's OPS is .895, which would be a fine result for any slugger outside of a very select few. Mejia's is at .837, definitely below par. De Jong's is a silly 1.667, and Vazquez's can't even be calculated since he didn't record any outs. So their OPS conform to our intuitions about what they've accomplished.

 

Blake Parker is quietly distinguishing himself, with a .510 OPS. More surprisingly, at least to me, is Trevor May with .529 - the hits he gives up are just so ill-timed, and usually that evens out during a season.

 

To me, quick-and-dirty OPS tells you more about how the pitcher is succeeding in getting batters out, without the need to delve into inherited runners being dealt with by the next reliever that ERA calls into question.

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It is amazing how many eggs one can break without making a decent omelet.


#37 stringer bell

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:40 PM

The Angels were relentless for three games, but didn't get the big hits. 45 hits in a three-game series and they only won one game. I will buy into the "luck argument" a bit. I haven't seen so many weakly hit balls roll through the infield against the shift, combined with so many balls getting through the shift. 

 

It's hard to say this, but Mike Trout wasn't that consequential. He could have driven in a dozen runs and probably seen to it that the Angels swept, but the Twins got him out in key at-bats.

 

It seems to me that the whole homestand was regression to the mean. Twins' starters allowed runs, including home runs after being tremendous for quite a while. Opposition hitters found grass with weakly hit balls and got balls over the fence. The Twins struggled with runners on, particularly against Detroit, but managed still to win four of seven, not great, but not a total disaster.

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#38 Alex Schieferdecker

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:41 PM

 

How many pitchers would you trust in a playoff series against Houston? Right now I only trust Rogers, Parker, and May. It's time to get serious about the bullpen... The rest of the team is too good to pass up a playoff run.

I mean, we recently had seven games against Houston.

 

Rogers: 1 IP, 0 ER

May: 1.1 IP, 0 ER

Duffey: 1.1 IP, 0 ER

Parker: 2 IP, 0 ER

 

and then...

Magill: 2 IP, 2 ER (first appearance back)

Harper: 3.1 IP, 3 ER (in four appearances, three were scoreless)

Mejia: 1.1 IP, 3 ER

Hildenberger: 1.2 IP, 4 ER

Romero: 3 IP: 2 ER

 

I'm not saying that the Twins should just be rolling into a playoff series with Trevor Hildenberger and Adalberto Mejia as if everything is hunky dory. What I am saying is that it's really easy to overstate the bullpen's issues. There are four guys (Rogers, May, Parker, and Harper) who have been consistently solid. There have been three more guys, (Magill, Morin, Duffey) who have been good through limited action. I'm not bent out of shape about it. There's probably a need for additional reinforcements, but pretending that the whole bullpen is a disaster is simply wrong.

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#39 stringer bell

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:45 PM

I think WHIP is another measure that is more accurate than ERA. Hildenberger hit 2.0 with his last outing. I checked his career numbers and they look pretty bad, as well. 

 

I do tend to agree with Chief that there has been some smoke and mirrors productivity in the bullpen. Other than Rogers, it is white-knuckle time every reliever toes the slab in a close game.

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#40 ashbury

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Posted 15 May 2019 - 05:49 PM

I think WHIP is another measure that is more accurate than ERA. Hildenberger hit 2.0 with his last outing. I checked his career numbers and they look pretty bad, as well.

WHIP involves hits and walks, so it corresponds to the OBP part of OPS. What it doesn't include is power hitting, so it tells only part of the story. But the OBP part is pretty important - "is he recording outs?" - so WHIP is good.

 

Of course any stats are going to be affected by the manager's usage, e.g. whether the pitcher is trusted to face the heart of the opponent's order. I'd never recommend relying on just one stat. But ERA for a reliever ranks pretty low for me on what to look at.

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