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Article: LAA 5, MIN 4: More Missed Opportunities

jose berrios jorge polanco marwin gonzalez
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#41 jkcarew

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 12:49 PM

 

I’m not scoffing at the idea of productive outs, but I’m not bothered that Kep didn’t advance the runner there. Yes, it would have been nice, sure. Twins fans have endured 25 years of “move ‘em over, get ‘em in” ... “play for a run, lose by a run” style of baseball. I like this version better!

But we just lost by a run. :)

My thing is...why does having the ability to pull and launch and hit home runs have to preclude the ability to move a runner when the scenario calls for that? You'd like to see that type of versatility...at least among guys that aren't going to be anywhere near league-leaders in power numbers.

 

(by the way...not necessarily a Kepler thing, really. Kepler was trying to move the runner...he's always trying to pull the ball which was the play there. Just got beat by the pitch.)

 

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#42 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 12:53 PM

 

There are times to bunt late in games, maybe. But here is some math (note, this is not a game thread, so you were not promised no math, sir or madam).

 

https://www.danblewe...cy-bunting-bad/

 

This would be an overly simplistic view of things... however, this is how I look at it. 

 

When you bunt... you are playing for one run and one run only. Sure you'll take 5 runs in the inning if it happens but whenever, you lay down a bunt, you have lessened your chance to put 5 runs on the board that inning by creating the out and those outs are precious. So, whenever you bunt, you are saying forget 5 runs this inning... I need 1 run right now. You are laying down the bunt to get a single run across the plate. 

 

When you don't bunt, you are playing for as many runs as you can possibly get in a given inning and teams should always be trying to score as many runs as possible in any given inning. 

 

Unless, time is running out. That is the only time that playing for a single run and a single run only makes sense. If you are down a run or tied and that Single run keeps you alive or wins it. 

 

That's why I'm not bunting until the 8th or 9th inning and the game is tied or 1 run apart.

 

If Astudillo would have hit a single instead of a double last night, leading off the 8th... I'm not sure that I would have bunted in that situation... but since it was a double... getting the pinch runner to third where a sacrifice fly or a seeing eye single through the drawn in infield ties the game. This isn't a moment to think about getting 5 runs in the 8th... this is a moment to think about tying the game up. 

 

This is one of the few situations were the bunt is almost required. 

 

It was an execution failure. 

 

 

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#43 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 12:54 PM

 

But we just lost by a run. :)

My thing is...why does having the ability to pull and launch and hit home runs have to preclude the ability to move a runner when the scenario calls for that? You'd like to see that type of versatility...at least among guys that aren't going to be anywhere near league-leaders in power numbers.

 

(by the way...not necessarily a Kepler thing, really. Kepler was trying to move the runner...he's always trying to pull the ball which was the play there. Just got beat by the pitch.)

 

Yep,

 

You are not going to use your driver to chip on to the green from 30 feet out. Teams and players need to have multiple clubs in the bag. 

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#44 jkcarew

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:03 PM

 

Do you guys really like Kepler as a lead off hitter?

Don't love him there...but given alternatives, I'm good with it.

 

When looking at it, we'd probably be better off considering Kepler's numbers against righties only. He's not batting lead-off against lefties. And his OBP against righties...while not outstanding...is decent, and better than Buxton's.

 

Against lefties, I'm good with Garver leading off at this time.

 

My feeling is that lead-off batters have more pressure and see different pitching approaches (certainly relative to no. 9 hitters). Even if Buxton continues to make progress, I want him with a solid season behind him before we ask him to take that on...as long as the alternatives are 'decent'...which I feel the Kepler/Garver platoon is (so far).

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#45 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:03 PM

 

Regarding not bunting--with all of the strikeouts and pop flies in today's game, it is far from a guarantee that the next guy will bring in that run. Kepler hits a lot of pop flies and a lot of grounders into the shift, one of the two would have advanced the runner, the other not so much. 

 

Kepler is consistently inconsistent. He's already had three or four "snags" where he's 1-10, 2-15. He'll come out of it with multiple hits and extra base hits. I'd like to see a true leadoff hitter, but given what is available, I think Kepler is as good a choice as anyone.

 

Considering that the runner needed to be moved over first and foremost... I think it's possible that Adrianza was the better choice in that situation. Either bunting or hitting the ball behind the runner. 

 

But, like Chief said and Jkcarew said... Sometimes players fail. 

 

Right now... Psychologically... I'm just hoping that the Twins are not trying to out homer each other.

 

I've seen baseball teams get on home run rolls like the Twins have been on and get drunk with the power. The home runs come so easy that they start losing sight of the little things (like mere singles, driving in runs/keeping the chain moving) while in pursuit of the almighty dinger. 

 

I wouldn't proclaim it but I am suggesting the possibility that our struggles with runners in scoring position the past few games could be drunk with the power related. 

 

Just keep hitting the ball guys... they will still leave the park on occasion. 

 

 

 

 

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#46 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:42 PM

 

Kepler absolutely has to advance the runner there. You can swing for the fences all you want, but if you get a gift situation like that in the 8th inning you get that runner over by hook or by crook!

Or bunt.


#47 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:52 PM

 

This would be an overly simplistic view of things... however, this is how I look at it. 

 

When you bunt... you are playing for one run and one run only. Sure you'll take 5 runs in the inning if it happens but whenever, you lay down a bunt, you have lessened your chance to put 5 runs on the board that inning by creating the out and those outs are precious. So, whenever you bunt, you are saying forget 5 runs this inning... I need 1 run right now. You are laying down the bunt to get a single run across the plate. 

 

When you don't bunt, you are playing for as many runs as you can possibly get in a given inning and teams should always be trying to score as many runs as possible in any given inning. 

 

Unless, time is running out. That is the only time that playing for a single run and a single run only makes sense. If you are down a run or tied and that Single run keeps you alive or wins it. 

 

That's why I'm not bunting until the 8th or 9th inning and the game is tied or 1 run apart.

 

If Astudillo would have hit a single instead of a double last night, leading off the 8th... I'm not sure that I would have bunted in that situation... but since it was a double... getting the pinch runner to third where a sacrifice fly or a seeing eye single through the drawn in infield ties the game. This isn't a moment to think about getting 5 runs in the 8th... this is a moment to think about tying the game up. 

 

This is one of the few situations were the bunt is almost required. 

 

It was an execution failure. 

 

did you read the math article?

 

Bunting there decreases your odds of scoring by 5%, give or take. Seems odd, but it does.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#48 USAFChief

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:52 PM

 

There are times to bunt late in games, maybe. But here is some math (note, this is not a game thread, so you were not promised no math, sir or madam).

 

https://www.danblewe...cy-bunting-bad/

There is a place for math, but in this case, the math is fuzzier then it first appears.

 

First, the math assumes that all base/out situations are created equally. That 2nd base, no out, with a hard throwing reliever against the bottom of the order is the same as 2nd base, no out, middle of the order against somebody's tiring 5th starter. That LH/RH don't matter for pitcher or hitter. None of this is ever true. This is a case where averages obscure the truth, rather than reveal it. There's an old saying...a statistician will look at a guy with one foot in boiling water and one frozen in ice and conclude, on average, the guy must be pretty comfortable.

 

Second, having seen these studies before, I believe the math shows that in certain situations, sac buntingactually increases the chances of scoring exactly one run, while lowering the chances of scoring multiple runs. And I agree with RB...there are situations when scoring one run is so important that I'd be more than willing to lower my chances of two or more to increase my chances of one.

 

And third, I don't even care if Kepler bunts there. A sac bunt attempt isn't guaranteed to advance the runner either. But if the team isn't going to bunt in that situation, then the hitter absolutely, positively, has to sell out to hit the ball to the right side, to maximize his chances of advancing that runner to third. In this case, Kepler swung wildly at the first pitch, a pitch that was very "pullable," and then got beat on a pitch away, which he had little chance of pulling, and popped up weakly to the left side. 

 

That's a failure to understand the situation, IMO, not just a failure to get the job done. It's the 8th inning. Your first priority has to be "get this sucker tied up." 

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#49 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 01:57 PM

 

There is a place for math, but in this case, the math is fuzzier then it first appears.

 

First, the math assumes that all base/out situations are created equally. That 2nd base, no out, with a hard throwing reliever against the bottom of the order is the same as 2nd base, no out, middle of the order against somebody's tiring 5th starter. That LH/RH don't matter for pitcher or hitter. None of this is ever true. This is a case where averages obscure the truth, rather than reveal it. There's an old saying...a statistician will look at a guy with one foot in boiling water and one frozen in ice and conclude, on average, the guy must be pretty comfortable.

 

Second, having seen these studies before, I believe the math shows that in certain situations, sac buntingactually increases the chances of scoring exactly one run, while lowering the chances of scoring multiple runs. And I agree with RB...there are situations when scoring one run is so important that I'd be more than willing to lower my chances of two or more to increase my chances of one.

 

And third, I don't even care if Kepler bunts there. A sac bunt attempt isn't guaranteed to advance the runner either. But if the team isn't going to bunt in that situation, then the hitter absolutely, positively, has to sell out to hit the ball to the right side, to maximize his chances of advancing that runner to third. In this case, Kepler swung wildly at the first pitch, a pitch that was very "pullable," and then got beat on a pitch away, which he had little chance of pulling, and popped up weakly to the left side. 

 

That's a failure to understand the situation, IMO, not just a failure to get the job done. It's the 8th inning. Your first priority has to be "get this sucker tied up." 

 

It's a stupid old saying, as people that understand math would never use average that way, but I get your point. We probably won't agree here.....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#50 70charger

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 03:28 PM

 

 

Just keep hitting the ball guys... they will still leave the park on occasion. 

 

This is where commas are important.

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#51 USAFChief

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 03:49 PM

 

It's a stupid old saying, as people that understand math would never use average that way, but I get your point. We probably won't agree here.....

I would argue the person who posted that rather limited and incomplete article about "run expectancy" used math exactly that way.

 

Maybe I understand math better than people that understand math.

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#52 ashbury

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 03:53 PM

Second, having seen these studies before, I believe the math shows that in certain situations, sac buntingactually increases the chances of scoring exactly one run, while lowering the chances of scoring multiple runs.

Yes. This is key. (The other points you raised are also valid.)

 

In the early part of the game, you don't really have much idea how many runs you need. So don't do things that reduce the average number of runs.

 

Late in the game when it's close, you have a better idea of the value of one solitary run. Then you do things that increase the chance of scoring anything at all.

 

Unless I missed something, the tables in the linked article were for average numbers of runs. "We’ll touch on run expectancy and bunting today, and cover probability another day." Someone needs to go find that other article.

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#53 USAFChief

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 03:56 PM

 

Yes. This is key. (The other points you raised are also valid.)

 

In the early part of the game, you don't really have much idea how many runs you need. So don't do things that reduce the average number of runs.

 

Late in the game when it's close, you have a better idea of the value of one solitary run. Then you do things that increase the chance of scoring anything at all.

 

Unless I missed something, the tables in the linked article were for average numbers of runs. "We’ll touch on run expectancy and bunting today, and cover probability another day." Someone needs to go find that other article.

https://www.athletic...of-the-sac-bunt

 

try this. Unfortunately, it doesn't cover bunting a runner from 2nd to 3rd with 0 out.

 

 

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#54 yarnivek1972

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 04:02 PM

The Twins have a lot of guys that lack plate discipline, even moreso with Cruz on the shelf.

The result is going to be a lot of bad at bats. The times when good at bats are IMPERATIVE are the RISP ABs. This is a problem that is not going to go away with this group of hitters. This is simply who they are.
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#55 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:17 PM

 

This is where commas are important.

 

I meant that. 

 

I'm sick and tired of ball guys.:)

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#56 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:33 PM

 

did you read the math article?

 

Bunting there decreases your odds of scoring by 5%, give or take. Seems odd, but it does.

 

I did

 

Run expectancy: how many runs we can expect to score, on average, given a specific base/out state.

 

That explains everything right there. "how many"? 

 

The chart illustrates that you will score less runs on average when you bunt and this is because when you sacrifice an out... you also sacrifice one-third of your ability to score multiple runs and therefore make it harder to hang a 6 on the scoreboard. As a result you score less runs and reduce expectancy in the process. 

 

The chart the article needs: What happens to the percentages of scoring one run and one run only. That's the chart that will tell you if Kepler or Adrianza should have bunted last night in the 8th. 

We didn't need 6 runs... we needed 1.:)

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#57 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:56 PM

I don't think enough was said in this thread that our bullpen did a pretty good job giving us a chance.

 

We're quick to rip them when they blow a game, but with how bad Berrios was we only had a shot because the bullpen held down a big chunk of the game.

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#58 USAFChief

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 10:55 PM

I don't think enough was said in this thread that our bullpen did a pretty good job giving us a chance.

We're quick to rip them when they blow a game, but with how bad Berrios was we only had a shot because the bullpen held down a big chunk of the game.

if by bullpen you mean Taylor Rogers, then yeah. Agreed.

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