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Article: LAA 5, MIN 4: More Missed Opportunities

jose berrios jorge polanco marwin gonzalez
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#1 Andrew Gebo

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 09:12 PM

The powerful Twins lineup mashed a couple more home runs tonight, but the team's struggles to deliver clutch hits continued. They combined to go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and Jose Berrios had his worst start of the season as the Twins dropped the series opener to the Angels 5-4.Box Score
Berrios: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 62.4% strikes (63 of 101 pitches)
Home Runs: Polanco (8), Gonzalez (4)
Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-5, HR), Rosario (2-for-4)
WPA of +0.1: Astudillo .178, Gonzalez .110
WPA of -0.1: Kepler -.117, Buxton -.171, Garver -.182, Castro -.210, Berrios -.332
Download attachment: Win513.png
(chart via FanGraphs)

Neither pitcher looked good early on, as Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs combined to throw 121 pitches through the first three innings. In the fourth inning, Berrios matched his season high in hits allowed (eight) and recorded his first ground ball double play of the season when he got Shohei Ohtani to ground into a 4-6-3 on a 3-0 pitch to end the inning.

Worst Start of the Year for Berrios
The struggles for Berrios didn’t end after he induced the fourth inning double play. In the fifth inning, a replay challenge ruled Andrelton Simmons was safe on a stolen base and he later scored on a seeing-eye ground ball from Albert Pujols. Jose also served up two home runs, the first to Shohei Ohtani in the third inning and the second to Tommy La Stella in the sixth.

After allowing two base runners following the La Stella home run, Berrios' night was cut short after 5 2/3 innings. For the first time this season, Jose was pulled prior to completing six innings. He surrendered 12 hits and allowed five earned runs with only three strikeouts on 101 pitches. Simply put, he did not look like his usual self tonight.

Resilient Twins Offense Strikes Again
The Angels weren’t the only ones having fun at the plate. Thanks to a pair of two-run home runs from Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins tied the score at four apiece in the bottom of the fifth inning. If not for having an Angel in the outfield, it very well could have been three home runs for the Twins but Garver’s blast came up just short of the flower beds in left and instead landed in the outfielders glove.

Coming Up Just Short
The bullpen kept the Twins alive, keeping the Angels off the board over three plus innings. A double from La Tortuga to lead off the eight showed promise of another late inning rally but the offense fell short and were unable to drive him in.

With the top of the order due up in the ninth, the Twins had one last chance to come from behind. Unfortunately it didn't go their way. They were retired in order and for only the third time this year the Twins dropped back to back games.

Postgame With Baldelli

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Download attachment: Bullpen513.png
Next Three Games
Tue vs. LAA, 6:40 pm CT (Gibson-Pena)
Wed vs. LAA, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Cahill)
Thu at SEA, 9:10 pm CT (TBD)

Last Game
DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem

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#2 David HK

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 09:22 PM

Well, there will be games like this, there will be stretches like this throughout the long season. 

 

Good teams find ways to not make them last very long.  

 

Our 2 strongest pitchers so far both had rough games, back to back. The hitters didn't come through AT ALL in high-leverage situations. It's a couple of games so far, winnable games in winnable series'. Doesn't make it any less frustrating, but, there it is. 

 

Go get 'em tomorrow.

 

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#3 Aerodeliria

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 09:31 PM

This was a typical managerial mistake that is often made when trying to get a starting pitcher a win. I was worried that Berrios would come out for the 6th once the Twins tied it, but it was clear he didn't have his best stuff so he should have taken his seat at the end of the bench.

 

Again, the Twins did not get the bit hit when they needed it, but once they had tied it, I had optimism that they could win it. The home run took a bit of wind out of everyone's sails.

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#4 jkcarew

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 09:42 PM

And THAT is why traditionally you don’t have the best pitcher in the back of the bullpen enter games when trailing. It’s a gamble, and Rocco lost the bet. Berrios has struggled controlling the curve many of his starts so far...his mediocre FIP and K/9 heading into today’s start reflected that, despite the favorable results. It was bound to bite him eventually.
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#5 Aerodeliria

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 11:28 PM

PS-Now I have to watch highlights of Ohtani's home run over and over again :-(...


#6 h2oface

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 11:47 PM

Burning Rodgers in a losing effort, and having him in when they were always behind. I can understand one inning to keep it close, and I know that he needed work, but to burn him for at least tomorrow and maybe wednesday with 31 pitches in 11 innings? Odd management. Is that what the analytics say to do? Plus, dropping a position player when you have one out but not on the IL to replace him.... means a bench of 2. Odd again. Not smart odd.

 

So.... we have lost 3 of the last 4, at home, to teams with losing records. The season settles in, eh? There have be so many barely missed homers. And Berrios was really pretty horrible today. 12 hits. More than 2/inning average.

 

What do all you Marwin doubters think now?

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#7 h2oface

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 11:50 PM

 

PS-Now I have to watch highlights of Ohtani's home run over and over again :-(...

 

That pitch from Berrios to Otani was so right down the middle with no movement.

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#8 h2oface

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 11:52 PM

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.


#9 Aerodeliria

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 03:21 AM

This game was so annoying....even the interview. The reporterette asked Rocco, "Why did you let Berrios come out for the 6th?" HAHAHAHA....Just kidding. That would have been a rational question. Her question instead was,"How did you know it was time to take Berrios out of the game?" How?? Is that even a real question? He just gave up his 12th hit in 5 + innings! I mean come on; that was softball sitting on a batting tee.

 

Let's hope tomorrow, we'll play baseball that will make this game fade from our memories....("Stupid Ohtani highlights" think Homer Simpson's voice).

Edited by Aerodeliria, 14 May 2019 - 03:22 AM.

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#10 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 05:55 AM

Hope MLB gets a urine test on Tommy La Stella. 

 

He's cracked 10 HRs this year, and took an off-speed pitch out to LF.

 

When HOF'er Albert Pujols goes oppo, it's dribblers, but not La Stella.

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#11 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:27 AM

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

 

 

 

 

 

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#12 bighat

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:38 AM

I think this team will be fine. It's unfortunate they've been kinda playing with the 'B' team for the past couple of days. We might get the "B" team for the remainder of this series, unfortunately. Glad Castro will be on the bench tonight, Kepler will be back in his leadoff spot, and hopefully we'll have an infield of Astudillo, Polaco, Schoop and Cron. A few nagging problems:

 

1. Get Cruz back ASAP - unfortunately the Twins will be careful with him, but he'll be okay. Maybe he'll wait until Seattle to play?

 

2. Schoop has been out with a sore left shoulder. Odd injury...

 

3. Perez and Berrios show they're human. No biggie, but it hurts that the two best pitchers haven't been at their best when the Twins feel desperate for wins.

 

4. Sano is on the way. I think the Twins may need this guy sooner rather than later....but be careful what you wish for. The guy will still have games where he strikes out 3-4 times. Here's hoping he doesn't have one of those games right away upon his return.

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#13 bighat

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:39 AM

 

 

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

 

Kepler absolutely has to advance the runner there. You can swing for the fences all you want, but if you get a gift situation like that in the 8th inning you get that runner over by hook or by crook!

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#14 USAFChief

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 06:47 AM

 

Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run.

 

Astudillo leads offs with a double. 

 

Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. 

 

Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. 

 

The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. 

 

However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame. 

There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea.

 

Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.

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#15 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 07:05 AM

There are still times when "productive outs" really are productive. No matter how hard some people scoff at the idea.

Sometimes you fail, everyone does, but that was a terrible PA by Kepler. Not just unproductive, uncompetitive.


I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins.

However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out.

Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over.

Oh well... tomorrow is another day.
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#16 mikelink45

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 07:47 AM

 

I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins.

However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out.

Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over.

Oh well... tomorrow is another day.

Adrianza could have bunted.I question using Schoop as a PR.He has more value with his bat. I do like bunts and this was definitely a place where the bunt would have had great value.

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#17 spycake

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 08:08 AM

3. Perez and Berrios show they're human. No biggie, but it hurts that the two best pitchers haven't been at their best when the Twins feel desperate for wins.


The Twins felt desperate for wins the past two days? At 25-13 (now 25-15)?
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#18 Tom Froemming

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 08:13 AM

 

I don't have the stats, or know how to find them, but I remember many times that the shift has hurt us badly, but don't remeber where it has helped. I am sure it might have, but I remember lots of grounders into the shift that were hit where the fielder would have been anyway, even without the shift. I wonder how they keep stats on the effectiveness. I am not a fan so far, at all.

Not sure where to dig up the numbers specifically on shifting, but I know the Twins are inside the top five in shifts and have allowed the 11th-lowest BABIP in baseball, .284. Last season they ranked 25th with a .302 BABIP. 

 

I'm not saying those stats make it an open and close case, there's a lot of other factors to consider about why that BABIP is so much lower, and there was quite a bit of turnover in terms of personnel, but they're doing something right. That's a pretty significant increase in balls in play they're turning into outs. But when the shift doesn't work it most definitely stands out a lot more than when it does.

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#19 Number3

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 08:25 AM

Anything less than 5 runs usually means a loss in today's game. Now that the 2 Twins aces (so far this year) have lost can Gibson come through tonight? Would be nice to pull out this series and win the home stand before heading west. Seems like Rocco is doing a lot of lineup tinkering and I hope he is not being too smart by half as the old saying goes. Don't take this managing thing too seriously Rocco. Just let 'em play.

My mistake....sorry Jake, you are at the top of the list ace wise the way you have pitched the past few games. Gibson still needs to come through.

Edited by Number3, 14 May 2019 - 08:28 AM.

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#20 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 14 May 2019 - 08:37 AM

This game was so annoying....even the interview. The reporterette asked Rocco, "Why did you let Berrios come out for the 6th?" HAHAHAHA....Just kidding. That would have been a rational question. Her question instead was,"How did you know it was time to take Berrios out of the game?" .

I liked her non-confrontational version of the question better. Granted, there might have been a time in the near past when “what the hell are you doing out there” would have been an honest question for the manager and front office, but not now :)



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