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Article: DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem

martin perez byron buxton willians astudillo ehire adrianza rocco baldelli
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#21 akmanak

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:39 PM

We already knew that if we even had a couple of injuries that this team would fall apart quickly. I believe this is going to happen.

#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:44 PM

I would certainly expect things to even out, but sometimes they don't. The Dodgers had the third-best OPS in baseball last year (.774) but somehow maintained the third-worst OPS with two outs and RISP (.640). They also still won 92 games and went to the World Series, so ya know, things worked out OK for them. Still, what a weird thing to happen.

Things don’t necessarily even out. I’d like to see the Dodgers’ splits over that time to see how it played out (yes, I’m too lazy to look).

Two bad months and four normal months can make things look bad, yet only the two bad months are an unexpected outcome.

After a bad/good stretch, the expected outcome is not the opposite; the expected outcome is normality.
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#23 Buckyeah

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:52 PM

After Hildy’s 21 pitch poor performance yesterday, very surprised they went back to him today when Rogers hadn’t pitched in 4 days. And many others with low pitches in last week. Now we’ll get Rogers tomorrow no matter what the score. Oh well.
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#24 Han Joelo

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 07:57 PM

 

We already knew that if we even had a couple of injuries that this team would fall apart quickly. I believe this is going to happen.

 

I respect your opinion.  I don't agree.

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#25 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 08:16 PM

It sure looks like it’s time to send Hildenberger back to AAA to try to work out whatever mechanical flaw has him throwing frisbees that don’t break up to the plate. It is weird to say the Duffy would be the right call to replace him, but it looks like that is the right call. Maybe Duffy is harnessing the talent he’s always had but couldn’t find the last couple of years or maybe he’s just hot. I agree with the poster that argues that those last two spots in the bullpen should rotate through guys with options to see who gets hot. Right now Hildenberger is cold to the point of freezing your beer. Send him down to figure it out and call up Duffy...


While that could be helpful in the short term, it doesn’t solve the long term bullpen problem. We need 4 good backend pitchers and we have at most three in Rodgers, Blake and May. Frankly, May is a little shaky in that role. Maybe Harper is the fourth best out there? That’s more than just a little scary. Love this team and think that we can contend with what we have, but the odds would sure go up if we should get at least one more solid bullpen arm. Look to the San Francisco Giants and get on the phone ...
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#26 Aerodeliria

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 08:28 PM

I'm not surprised at our losses to Detroit. Saturday's games were both iffy affairs from the outset, so I can live with a split (sorry how we lost that one though). Sunday, the Twins played poorly, but I will agree with Tom about Astudillo leading off. That seemed a bit odd to me.

 

I wouldn't say the Twins are falling apart due to a couple of injuries, but I do note that injuries expose a certain lack of depth the Twins have. We played with two -WAR players in yesterday's lineup--granted, they performed better than expected, but it is not a long-term solution for the season; with Cruz exiting (hopefully short term), things get even a bit dicier.

 

As for nit-picking, it is nice that we are able to be nit-picky at the six week mark. Last year at this time, we had a lot of legitimate reasons to be griping.

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#27 mikelink45

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 08:47 PM

How about congratulations Gardy.I always enjoyed him in the Twins dugout and it is fun to see him and his team having fun.They are playing far above their talent level right now and I think it shows that Gardy does know how to handle a team.

 

He had to go from here, but its nice to see him succeed and from what I could tell in MI, they are enjoying him too.He is the right guy to handle this transition period for the Tigers.  

 

Team Home Runs - we are 3 they are 29.Batting average - Twins 2, Detroit 25.ERA - Twins 7, Detroit 21, WAR - Twins 3, Detroit 25.No contest, except that the human factor still eludes the sabrmatricians. And that is what makes baseball fun.

 

Now Twins - get back to winning. 

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#28 stringer bell

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 09:07 PM

 

I'm not surprised at our losses to Detroit. Saturday's games were both iffy affairs from the outset, so I can live with a split (sorry how we lost that one though). Sunday, the Twins played poorly, but I will agree with Tom about Astudillo leading off. That seemed a bit odd to me.

 

I wouldn't say the Twins are falling apart due to a couple of injuries, but I do note that injuries expose a certain lack of depth the Twins have. We played with two -WAR players in yesterday's lineup--granted, they performed better than expected, but it is not a long-term solution for the season; with Cruz exiting (hopefully short term), things get even a bit dicier.

 

As for nit-picking, it is nice that we are able to be nit-picky at the six week mark. Last year at this time, we had a lot of legitimate reasons to be griping.

I disagree about lack of depth, at least among the position players. It has been great to have Cruz' bat in the lineup, but the team can work around not having him for a week or two if it comes to that. If they have to put Cruz on the IL, they have a replacement for him in Sanó. With Sanó's ability to play third and first, they might be able to kind of rotate the DH between a catcher (Astudillo or Garver), Sanó and perhaps one of the outfielders. It also would keep Cave in the majors for as long as Cruz was out. 

 

I think the lack of starting pitcher depth is much more concerning. Teams don't get away with five starters in the rotation very often and if the next-best option is Kohl Stewart, well I think that is a problem. 

 

I said earlier that Hildenberger has at least one option. I do believe the league has figured out much of his deception and the stuff he has requires really good command and he hasn't shown it since last year at midseason. Some of you old-timers might remember a right-handed reliever the Twins had named Frank Eufemia. He was nearly unhittable his first trip around the league, but when he faced teams a second or third time, he became very hittable. Eufemia didn't throw hard and featured a really good off-speed pitch. I wonder if Hildy is another example.

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#29 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 09:27 PM

 


I’m not usually one to nitpick lineup construction, but the way Rocco Baldelli filled things out had me scratching my head. This was Astudillo’s first game since April 27, but he was the leadoff man. He ended up leaving six men on base today. I get that Buxton has looked very comfortable in the No. 9 spot, but having him behind Adrianza and Cave against a left-handed starter was odd to see.

 

 

I didn't see the game because I was driving in the car listening to it so any thoughts I have wouldn't be fair comment as far as the game goes. 

 

However... on this point, I have been watching. I want to state that I'm absolutely happy with the way things are being handled... I don't have complaint... however... It appears that players are locked into batting slots in the order and I don't understand the reason why. 

 

I know that they are trying to separate rights and lefts to give the opposing manager something to think about when trying to decide between a lefty or righty out of the pen and that is sensible but I've been watching and it is rather obvious that Baldelli has locked in players to similar slots in the batting order. 

 

I honestly don't care about batting order... go ahead and put Dave Kingman in the lead off spot... I really don't care... I'm also not a psychologist but I do strongly believe that players will not be emotionally damaged and unable to perform if they are moved around in the lineup. 

 

 

If he wants to put Astudillo in the lead off spot... I'm fine with it... But if he did it because Garver usually hits in that spot against lefties and Astudillo is replacing Garver... then I'm not fine with it... because that is auto-pilot managing and I don't care much for that. 

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#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:10 PM

 

I would certainly expect things to even out, but sometimes they don't. The Dodgers had the third-best OPS in baseball last year (.774) but somehow maintained the third-worst OPS with two outs and RISP (.640). They also still won 92 games and went to the World Series, so ya know, things worked out OK for them. Still, what a weird thing to happen.

 

OK... even less reason to worry about it... 

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#31 rghrbek

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:50 PM

Not understanding the Duffy arguments to replace Hildy.  Perplexing that Rogers did not pitch.  I think when Hildy gets over used he may struggle. Hildy has been pretty good and Duffy, besides the one outing has been close to a disaster the last 3 years?

 

Yes I wish we had more options to put in that situation in the bullpen, which I think is the real issue.  Yeah we split with Detroit and we are a better team.  Let's see how we do against the Halo's bullpen wise.

 

 


#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:54 PM

Two important players hurt, and we talk about batting order and hitting with runners in position as meaningful things? What matters is the health of Cruz and Perez.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:54 PM

Things don’t necessarily even out. I’d like to see the Dodgers’ splits over that time to see how it played out (yes, I’m too lazy to look).

Two bad months and four normal months can make things look bad, yet only the two bad months are an unexpected outcome.

After a bad/good stretch, the expected outcome is not the opposite; the expected outcome is normality.


Keep trying. Good luck.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#34 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 10:57 PM

I didn't see the game because I was driving in the car listening to it so any thoughts I have wouldn't be fair comment as far as the game goes.

However... on this point, I have been watching. I want to state that I'm absolutely happy with the way things are being handled... I don't have complaint... however... It appears that players are locked into batting slots in the order and I don't understand the reason why.

I know that they are trying to separate rights and lefts to give the opposing manager something to think about when trying to decide between a lefty or righty out of the pen and that is sensible but I've been watching and it is rather obvious that Baldelli has locked in players to similar slots in the batting order.

I honestly don't care about batting order... go ahead and put Dave Kingman in the lead off spot... I really don't care... I'm also not a psychologist but I do strongly believe that players will not be emotionally damaged and unable to perform if they are moved around in the lineup.


If he wants to put Astudillo in the lead off spot... I'm fine with it... But if he did it because Garver usually hits in that spot against lefties and Astudillo is replacing Garver... then I'm not fine with it... because that is auto-pilot managing and I don't care much for that.


What? When Garver doesn't play, Kepler leads off. I don't understand this post. It's about the first time this has happened.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#35 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 11:17 PM

 

Keep trying. Good luck.

What does that even mean?


#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 11:34 PM

What does that even mean?


People don't get that things don't even out the way they think. That's how casinos make money....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2019 - 11:48 PM

 

People don't get that things don't even out the way they think. That's how casinos make money....

Which is exactly what I said... You can't bank on good or bad luck going forward.

 

The last sentence of that post was literally:

"After a bad/good stretch, the expected outcome is not the opposite; the expected outcome is normality."


#38 Original Whizzinator

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 02:09 AM

We already knew that if we even had a couple of injuries that this team would fall apart quickly. I believe this is going to happen.

I think the depth is better than it has been. Marwin stepping up for Sano, the three headed catcher etc
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#39 old nurse

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 03:59 AM

 

If you sub "Pressly" with "Duffey", you might end up with the same conclusion, unless you saw Pressly blossom with pitching coaches other than the ones Duffey got his "chances" with.And some of those "chances" were as an ill-placed starter. 

 

The last 2 spots in the pen should be rotating among players who have the hottest arms now.And I'd argue that Duffey is hotter than Hildenberger, so he should replace him.If he cools off and someone else is better, replace him.This team is a contender.Cannot afford to carry people who are hurting it, esp. if they have options.

Duffey=Pressly, there is a stretch.


#40 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 13 May 2019 - 04:10 AM

The umpire was bad in this game. Garver walked in the ninth, but after the Marwin hit, instead of two on, one out, there were two outs and one on. On the Dixon home run, he struck out on the previous pitch, but the ump called it a ball. That’s a big difference. There were several other missed calls.

As for line-up construction, I understand why they are batting Buxton ninth (for confidence reasons), but I think as many at bats as possible for him will also be a confidence booster. I think he should start moving up in the lineup (none of Willians, Kepler, or Adrianza should have batted ahead of him against a lefty, for example). I’d like him ahead of some RBI options.

And Garver should be starting as much as possible. He can DH if Cruz is going to miss time.
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