Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Plouffe... for real?

  • Please log in to reply
44 replies to this topic

#21 joeboo_22

joeboo_22

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 177 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 12:38 PM

Thumb injuries suck balls, especially for power hitters. I don't think Plouffe will ever be a .300ba 35HR guy. But he will be a .230-.260ba 25 HR 20 2B and play marginal defense where he makes plays he shouldn't and bones plays he should.

#22 nokomismod

nokomismod

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 366 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 01:36 PM

I would be happy if he was a healthy Crede type of player. The power numbers he showed at AAA last year also backup his power stats this year.
I caught part of Judd and Phun (AM1500) this morning talking about Mauer being ready to play 3B some or a lot next year in case Plouffe doesn't produce.

#23 jay

jay

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,504 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 01:41 PM

Talk today from Joe C at the Strib about Mauer taking some 3B next year. Any objections to a partial platoon where Mauer faces some righties from 3B? If Doumit takes the dish, that gets up to 7 or 8 lefties in the lineup against righties (depending on how the Span/Revere and MI pan out).

#24 Willihammer

Willihammer

    Nostrombolimus

  • Members
  • 7,252 posts
  • LocationSaint Paul

Posted 01 October 2012 - 02:13 PM

Ya the more the merrier. I don't think Mauer can possibly be as bad as Plouffe over there anyway.

#25 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 03:22 PM

Plouffe over the last five seasons:

2008: 9 HR
2009: 10 HR
2010: 17 HR
2011: 23 HR
2012: 23 HR

I believe that's what they call "development." Your supposition that he's more likely to be a 10-15 HR guy isn't really supported by the above numbers. I think there's definitely room to question his ability to hit for average and get on base, but his power is legit, and to me his defense at third base is perfectly adequate.


10-15 homeruns isn't supported by the above numbers but it is by a three week stretch? You're using the definition of a small sample size to buoy a season projection and then coupling that with trending minor league numbers? Yes, his play has gotten better but let's look at a few facts before we start projecting season-long numbers:

Half his homeruns were hit during a period in which he OPS'd 400 points higher than his season total. He was over .700 OPS only two out of six months of the season. His K:BB ratio is 3:1.

What you are citing is driven by a fluke. I want him to get a shot and to see if the injury was his problem or if he really is just a middling .650 OPS player who strikes out too much. Projecting based on small sample sized flukes should be beneath any serious argument.

#26 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 3,062 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 04:10 PM

Why do I care how the home runs were distributed across the course of the season? He still hit them all. He's always been a streaky hitter, that doesn't take anything away from the fact that he has gradually developed into a very strong power hitter over the course of several years. I'm not saying he's a lock to hit 20-plus bombs next year but there's plenty of reason to think he will. This was not a Mauer-esque fluke.

#27 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 05:31 PM

Why do I care how the home runs were distributed across the course of the season? I'm not saying he's a lock to hit 20-plus bombs next year but there's plenty of reason to think he will.


Because three weeks of ridiculousness versus four months of pretty sub-par play screams fluke. And flukes are poor justifications for projections which is why it's perfectly valid to think projecting this year forward is probably too optimistic. I'm not ruling out that he can hit 20+ home runs, but a 600-650 OPS third baseman who doesn't hit righties well isn't going to see the field enough to see that. And if his season next year looks more like April, May, August, and September than June - that's precisely what will happen.

10-15 I think is a much more reasonable hope considering just how buoyed his final numbers were by a stretch which any reasonable person would agree is unlikely to be sustainable or relied on. Even streaky hitters rarely do what he did for that couple week stretch and his numbers would look mighty unimpressive without that stretch.

#28 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 17,299 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 01 October 2012 - 05:59 PM

The big stretch was an obvious fluke in comparison to what he has done prior and in comparison to almost very other hot streak by any other player.

It makes no sense to discuss weather it was a fluke or not. Of course it was... He was way too hot.

However... Power numbers like that... at the same time suggests Power period... We could use some of that.

The guy chases and it hurts him. If he gets it under control. The power will still be there and we will all be smiling.

He starts in 2013 and I won't bet against him being decent and i think he will be starting in 2016 as well.

I also won't bet anything important that he's a lock.

5 bucks I'll do... Here's to Plouffe... Go get em.

#29 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 06:09 PM

However... Power numbers like that... at the same time suggests Power period... We could use some of that.


yeah, he's definitely got potential. With no one pushing him next year (and since I think we'll not be very good again anyway) - roll him out there and see if he can turn that fluke into a more consistent level of production. I just can't take much away from this season other than that he's fielding a position capably for the first time since he was promoted. Offensively this season was pretty bad more often than it was pretty good, but it's a step forward from what we had seen.

#30 Badsmerf

Badsmerf

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,636 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 08:06 PM

I think we found Lev's man-crush! For realsies though, there should be a consensus that the Twins need to go into next season with their eyes open. For Lev to argue that his hot streak has tainted his numbers, you also should keep in mind he has played hurt which has hurt his numbers. How much? I don't think any of us know, but injuries like that do have a negative effect.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#31 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 01 October 2012 - 09:31 PM

I think we found Lev's man-crush! For realsies though, there should be a consensus that the Twins need to go into next season with their eyes open. For Lev to argue that his hot streak has tainted his numbers, you also should keep in mind he has played hurt which has hurt his numbers. How much? I don't think any of us know, but injuries like that do have a negative effect.


Right, which I'm not willing to write him off as just a fluke. His minor league numbers suggest a 700ish OPS is attainable but if it's the way he did it this year that isn't what we want. (4 pretty bad months and 1 ridiculously good month isn't what you want in an everyday starter)

The fact that he can play a position defensively is the real boon to this year. It at least allows us to try him out.

#32 glunn

glunn

    Head Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,082 posts
  • LocationBeverly Hills, CA

Posted 01 October 2012 - 11:06 PM

The big stretch was an obvious fluke in comparison to what he has done prior and in comparison to almost very other hot streak by any other player.

It makes no sense to discuss weather it was a fluke or not. Of course it was... He was way too hot.

However... Power numbers like that... at the same time suggests Power period... We could use some of that.

The guy chases and it hurts him. If he gets it under control. The power will still be there and we will all be smiling.

He starts in 2013 and I won't bet against him being decent and i think he will be starting in 2016 as well.

I also won't bet anything important that he's a lock.

5 bucks I'll do... Here's to Plouffe... Go get em.


This makes a lot of sense to me. He will be very valuable if he can get the power under control and be more consistent.

#33 Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 18,562 posts

Posted 02 October 2012 - 06:06 AM

I think we found Lev's man-crush! For realsies though, there should be a consensus that the Twins need to go into next season with their eyes open. For Lev to argue that his hot streak has tainted his numbers, you also should keep in mind he has played hurt which has hurt his numbers. How much? I don't think any of us know, but injuries like that do have a negative effect.


Right, which I'm not willing to write him off as just a fluke. His minor league numbers suggest a 700ish OPS is attainable but if it's the way he did it this year that isn't what we want. (4 pretty bad months and 1 ridiculously good month isn't what you want in an everyday starter)

The fact that he can play a position defensively is the real boon to this year. It at least allows us to try him out.


On the other hand, players who neither walk nor hit for average tend to be very streaky hitters. The downside is that for a good portion of the year, they are average or slightly below average players. The upside is that they can carry the team for a month or more when they get hot.

I'm not a fan of players in the mold of Plouffe but given his hot streak this season and the organization's lack of competing players at third base, I think he has a spot on the roster for the foreseeable future.

#34 stringer bell

stringer bell

    WAR? What is it good for?

  • Twins Mods
  • 7,883 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 02 October 2012 - 08:23 AM

Two thoughts: Plouffe drew a lot of walks before he started his ridiculous power streak. I think he can be selective and, of course, getting ahead on some counts will give him more BP fastballs. I don't think he'll ever hit for a high average, but I can see an OPS over .800 with plenty of dingers.Cleveland doesn't need Jack Hannihan with Chisenhall healthy. Hannahan is a LH hitting 3B. I know he played a couple innings at SS against the Twins, but he is basically a 3B only. I wonder if the Twins would be interested in picking him up. His rep is that he's a plus defender.

#35 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 02 October 2012 - 03:05 PM

On the other hand, players who neither walk nor hit for average tend to be very streaky hitters. The downside is that for a good portion of the year, they are average or slightly below average players. The upside is that they can carry the team for a month or more when they get hot.


Well, part of the issue there is that the months that Plouffe wasn't a rockstar - he was worse than "slightly below average". I can handle average with surges - that's a good ballplayer. Putrid most of the year a Ruthian stretch is not what I want in an everyday player. In part, because it isn't very reliable.

#36 Oxtung

Oxtung

    If at first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence of tryin

  • Members
  • 1,820 posts

Posted 02 October 2012 - 03:12 PM

On the other hand, players who neither walk nor hit for average tend to be very streaky hitters. The downside is that for a good portion of the year, they are average or slightly below average players. The upside is that they can carry the team for a month or more when they get hot.


Why would that be? To me they are just like any other player except they reach base less overall. You'll find streaky hitters with exceptionally bad streaks and others who are just consistently poor with little variation in their output. I have no data to support my conclusion so if you have seen studies I would be interested in reading about it.

Of course none of that has to do with your larger point about Plouffe, who is a streaky hitter, I understand.

#37 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 11,087 posts

Posted 02 October 2012 - 04:47 PM

[quote name='Brock Beauchamp'][quote name='TheLeviathan'][quote name='Badsmerf']I think we found Lev's man-crush! For realsies though, there should be a consensus that the Twins need to go into next season with their eyes open. For Lev to argue that his hot streak has tainted his numbers, you also should keep in mind he has played hurt which has hurt his numbers. How much? I don't think any of us know, but injuries like that do have a negative effect.[/QUOTE]

Right, which I'm not willing to write him off as just a fluke. His minor league numbers suggest a 700ish OPS is attainable but if it's the way he did it this year that isn't what we want. (4 pretty bad months and 1 ridiculously good month isn't what you want in an everyday starter)

The fact that he can play a position defensively is the real boon to this year. It at least allows us to try him out.[/QUOTE]

On the other hand, players who neither walk nor hit for average tend to be very streaky hitters. The downside is that for a good portion of the year, they are average or slightly below average players. The upside is that they can carry the team for a month or more when they get hot.

I'm not a fan of players in the mold of Plouffe but given his hot streak this season and the organization's lack of competing players at third base, I think he has a spot on the roster for the foreseeable future.[/QUOTE]

I think what's being overlooked is Plouffe's "after-month" approach at the plate after that ridiculous streak in June The clubs were catching on that throwing "up and in" to him was playing right into Plouffe's strength. In late June and into July, Plouffe got a constant diet of low and away pitches. Plouffe reacted correctly by going with the pitch-away to the right field gap, yielding him a 314/352/480 slash in late June/July- after the bulk of the unconscious run he maintained through most of June, his homers went way down but he did show decent discipline as a hitter during that stetch.

Given the Twins other more-pressing needs that must be addressed this off-season, the best solution is one I've advocated all along, platooning Plouffe and Mauer at 3B, cutting back on Plouffe's appearances against tougher righties, especially when he's in one of his bad streaks (this would also save Plouffe to give Gardy a RHPH option in many games when his usual PH-candidates have usually only been Butera and Casilla).

#38 StormJH1

StormJH1

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 473 posts

Posted 03 October 2012 - 01:18 PM

I think he's a legit MLB 3rd baseman, and a guy with offensive upside we would have killed for in the days of Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Tony Batista....

But realistically, I think he's a .250 hitter with about 20-25 HR power. And that's good enough to make nowhere near among our major "problems" heading into next year.

#39 stringer bell

stringer bell

    WAR? What is it good for?

  • Twins Mods
  • 7,883 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 04 October 2012 - 04:32 AM

Interesting that Ryan wasn't afraid to be critical of Plouffe during the in-game interview by DickBert during the final game. He pretty much dismissed Trevor from the outfield (fine) and pointed out his inconsistent play at third and highlighted his "lateral mobility" issue as well.

Plouffe played better than I ever expected in the field (the bar was set pretty low) and produced power, a commodity that the Twins really lack. If he can pick up the "D" and OPS in the .700s, I don't think the Twins have a real problem at third base.

#40 IdahoPilgrim

IdahoPilgrim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,424 posts

Posted 04 October 2012 - 05:26 AM

Interesting that Ryan wasn't afraid to be critical of Plouffe during the in-game interview by DickBert during the final game. He pretty much dismissed Trevor from the outfield (fine) and pointed out his inconsistent play at third and highlighted his "lateral mobility" issue as well.

Plouffe played better than I ever expected in the field (the bar was set pretty low) and produced power, a commodity that the Twins really lack. If he can pick up the "D" and OPS in the .700s, I don't think the Twins have a real problem at third base.


I agree - if he can improve both offensively and defensively, he'll be a better player.;)