35% more pitches feels pretty egregious to me.It seems reasonable to assert that the more pitches you throw, the longer it takes your arm to fully recover (after all, starters go at minimum 3 days in between appearances, and that's almost exclusively reserved for extraordinary circumstances).Therefore, I think we can safely say a pitcher being used more often, and for longer stretches, is being more "worked", so while think Rogers, until recently, was being borderline overworked, it seems pretty clear that both Reed and Pressly were definitely overworked at this point last year.
It feels like that should be the case -- but in this specific case, I'm not sure there's even correlation here, much less causation.
Reed threw 265 pitches over the first 40 days of 2016; he threw 281 over the first 40 days of 2017. And you think we can say he was definitely overworked by throwing 270 over the first 40 days of 2018? There's nothing to suggest that 200 pitches over 40 days should be any kind of baseline, much less than 270 over 40 days is particularly egregious.
There's so much randomness and noise about player performance and injuries, it's almost impossible to judge based on the kind of information we have here. Mind you, I'm not saying there's no limit, but you can't get too fine in these judgements. Egregious usage, to me, would have to be something rare -- a reliever throwing 50 pitches in a game when he hasn't done that in forever; a high-stress 40-pitch inning; some amateur throwing 130+ pitches every other day in a tournament somewhere.