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Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/7): Larnach Lift-Off

trevor larnach bryan sammons miguel sano kohl stewart brent rooker
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#21 Vanimal46

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 11:01 AM

If it all correlates, then the same direct line that runs through the proper amount of rest and his effectiveness should also run through what is a velocity that is capable of success, which when he was rested last year appears to be 92 MPH. Since rest is pretty arbitrary and his effectiveness can't be determined until after the fact, shouldn't we just determine if we want to go forward with him based on his velocity which has already shown to be an effective gauge of his success?


I'm right there with you Nick. The only thing I care about during his rehab stint is velocity readings. Getting AAA hitters out shouldn't be much of a challenge for an 8 year MLB vet... I don't think his outcome is a good indicator whether he's ready or not. If the velocity doesn't come back, I'm afraid we have another Phil Hughes situation. Reed's secondary offerings aren't good enough to overcome a straight 90 MPH fastball.
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#22 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 11:05 AM

If it all correlates, then the same direct line that runs through the proper amount of rest and his effectiveness should also run through what is a velocity that is capable of success, which when he was rested last year appears to be 92 MPH. Since rest is pretty arbitrary and his effectiveness can't be determined until after the fact, shouldn't we just determine if we want to go forward with him based on his velocity which has already shown to be an effective gauge of his success?

Yes. Good point. We’ve seen that drop in velo really hurt some guys’ effectiveness. I wouldn’t want to see Reed right away in a big leverage spot if he’s not at max with his fastball yet (or ever).
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#23 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 11:18 AM

As of this date last year, Reed had faced 70 batters; Pressly 73. Rogers has faced 71 so far in 2019. Do you think he has been overused? I guess Rogers has 2 less appearances, so that's a few less warm-up pitches. But I'd hesitate to draw any direct lines about these usage patterns.

For this discussion, yes I would consider game appearances more meaningful than batters faced (or innings, pitches, or whatever). I am also trusting the “sixth sense” of folks who followed the games last spring, day after day, and thought Reed was being overused at that time. I do not think Rogers has been overused this year, though there have been some concerns about that too.

#24 spycake

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 11:34 AM

 

For this discussion, yes I would consider game appearances more meaningful than batters faced (or innings, pitches, or whatever). I am also trusting the “sixth sense” of folks who followed the games last spring, day after day, and thought Reed was being overused at that time. I do not think Rogers has been overused this year, though there have been some concerns about that too.

May and Hildenberger have as many game appearances in 2019 as Reed and Pressly had at this point in 2018 too. Is that meaningful? Is -2 appearances over ~40 days meaningful for Rogers?

 

Also, I don't think anyone has a "sixth sense" about these issues, that they can divine meaning from these minor variations in usage patterns. Their conclusions are probably just following the larger narratives of the time -- that the 2018 team and Molitor were disappointing, the 2019 team is surprisingly good, etc.

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#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 11:54 AM

 

Yes. Good point. We’ve seen that drop in velo really hurt some guys’ effectiveness. I wouldn’t want to see Reed right away in a big leverage spot if he’s not at max with his fastball yet (or ever).

 

I'd be more open to giving 2nd chances and rolling the dice if the team wasn't in 1st place.

 

I don't feel compelled to cross my fingers that the team can wring more value from the contract. If they were in the tank and I thought even at a long shot Reed could regain a bit of trade value come July 31, then I might say let's see what he's got.

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#26 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:06 PM

May and Hildenberger have as many game appearances in 2019 as Reed and Pressly had at this point in 2018 too. Is that meaningful? Is -2 appearances over ~40 days meaningful for Rogers?
 
Also, I don't think anyone has a "sixth sense" about these issues, that they can divine meaning from these minor variations in usage patterns. Their conclusions are probably just following the larger narratives of the time -- that the 2018 team and Molitor were disappointing, the 2019 team is surprisingly good, etc.

First paragraph: Yes I believe it is.

Second paragraph: speak for yourself :)

#27 Monkeypaws

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:15 PM

Classic small sample size, but through 4 games Nick Gordon is doing quite well: .421 BA, 1.108 OPS, 4 2B, 3SB.

 

It would be nice to see him reposition himself as a top prospect.

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#28 JLease

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:29 PM

I'm ok with Kohl Stewart getting tapped for the doubleheader start; Thorpe has been a little inconsistent and I'd prefer him to come up when he's more likely to stay a while rather than do his MLB debut on the ol' Rochester shuttle. Stewart has a little more experience and is less likely to get wobbly just on nerves.

 

Nice to see some of the hitters warming up a bit. Would very much like to see Wander Javier at Cedar Rapids to see what he can do.

 

agree it's a super small sample size, but still nice to see Nick Gordon get out of a fast start coming off injury and a tough year. If it gives him confidence, all to the better. I'd love for him to have a year where we can feel like he's a real option to play 2B next year if Schoop doesn't work out/wants to move on/gets a stupid ton of money to play elsewhere on a long-term deal.

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#29 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:43 PM

 

Nearly every player looks good if you throw out their bad months and only count their good months.

 

Just like every player looks bad if you throw out their good months and only count their bad months?You stated he wasn't good before his injury.I provided a number that demonstrates that not to be true (to at least some extent).In no way did I cherry pick--I looked at a timeframe in which you said he wasn't good, and provided evidence that, actually, he was.

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#30 nater79a

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:48 PM

Must say I wasn't initially impressed with the return (Forsythe/Raley/Smeltzer) in the Dozier trade to the Dodgers last summer. Happy to say that the production of Raley and Smeltzer early this year is changing my mind in a big way.

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#31 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:49 PM

 

As of this date last year, Reed had faced 70 batters; Pressly 73. Rogers has faced 71 so far in 2019. Do you think he has been overused? I guess Rogers has 2 less appearances, so that's a few less warm-up pitches. But I'd hesitate to draw any direct lines about these usage patterns.

 

Except through May 7 this year Rogers has thrown 206 pitches.Through May 6 last year, Reed had thrown 277, which is the equivalent of almost 4 more appearances.Pressly had thrown 281.I think it's pretty clear Reed and Pressly were getting quite overused last year, and you can't dismiss that as a factor in Reed's decline.

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#32 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 12:52 PM

 

Must say I wasn't initially impressed with the return (Forsythe/Raley/Smeltzer) in the Dozier trade to the Dodgers last summer. Happy to say that the production of Raley and Smeltzer early this year is changing my mind in a big way.

 

Especially given Brian's 69 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR so far this year.


#33 spycake

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 01:30 PM

Except through May 7 this year Rogers has thrown 206 pitches. Through May 6 last year, Reed had thrown 277, which is the equivalent of almost 4 more appearances. Pressly had thrown 281. I think it's pretty clear Reed and Pressly were getting quite overused last year, and you can't dismiss that as a factor in Reed's decline.


Another poster just said games was a more important factor than innings or pitches. +70 pitches over 40 days might be completely meaningless in terms of "overuse" depending on their distribution.

There is so much noise and randomness, unless something is really egregious, I don't think we can confidently point to usage as much of a factor in most situations.

#34 spycake

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 01:37 PM

Must say I wasn't initially impressed with the return (Forsythe/Raley/Smeltzer) in the Dozier trade to the Dodgers last summer. Happy to say that the production of Raley and Smeltzer early this year is changing my mind in a big way.


Smeltzer has been way more impressive than Raley so far. Although even then, impressive minor league pitching performances may not mean much -- remember Littell's incredible run in 2017?

Until one of these players becomes a contributor at the MLB level, I am not sure anything should really change our view of the trade. (And mind you, I don't think it was a bad trade at all.)

#35 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 03:09 PM

Just like every player looks bad if you throw out their good months and only count their bad months? You stated he wasn't good before his injury. I provided a number that demonstrates that not to be true (to at least some extent). In no way did I cherry pick--I looked at a timeframe in which you said he wasn't good, and provided evidence that, actually, he was.


On which date was he injured? Or are you just assuming that he only started to pitch poorly after the injury?
Or are you saying that there was a snippet of the season that he was good, which technically came before the injury?

#36 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 03:11 PM

Just like every player looks bad if you throw out their good months and only count their bad months? You stated he wasn't good before his injury. I provided a number that demonstrates that not to be true (to at least some extent). In no way did I cherry pick--I looked at a timeframe in which you said he wasn't good, and provided evidence that, actually, he was.


I'm not throwing out any months though. I'm using the assumption that he was healthy when he was on the field. Unless you have explicit evidence that the team, the medical staff, and himself all allowed him to pitch while injured.

#37 birdwatcher

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 03:31 PM

 

Must say I wasn't initially impressed with the return (Forsythe/Raley/Smeltzer) in the Dozier trade to the Dodgers last summer. Happy to say that the production of Raley and Smeltzer early this year is changing my mind in a big way.

 

 

The most dramatic gain from the Dozier sell is the opportunity gain derived from the decision to forego signing him to a long and illiquid contract.

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#38 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 09 May 2019 - 09:05 AM

 

Another poster just said games was a more important factor than innings or pitches. +70 pitches over 40 days might be completely meaningless in terms of "overuse" depending on their distribution.

There is so much noise and randomness, unless something is really egregious, I don't think we can confidently point to usage as much of a factor in most situations.

 

35% more pitches feels pretty egregious to me.It seems reasonable to assert that the more pitches you throw, the longer it takes your arm to fully recover (after all, starters go at minimum 3 days in between appearances, and that's almost exclusively reserved for extraordinary circumstances).Therefore, I think we can safely say a pitcher being used more often, and for longer stretches, is being more "worked", so while think Rogers, until recently, was being borderline overworked, it seems pretty clear that both Reed and Pressly were definitely overworked at this point last year.


#39 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 09 May 2019 - 09:09 AM

 

On which date was he injured? Or are you just assuming that he only started to pitch poorly after the injury?
Or are you saying that there was a snippet of the season that he was good, which technically came before the injury?

 

I have no idea on what date he was injured, although I think we should also clarify that injured and hurt are not necessarily mutually inclusive.I'm not assuming an injury or hurt is the sole cause of a decline in Reed's 2018 performance, but nor do I think, based on his March/April stats, which he then repeated in September, that an injury or hurt can be ruled out so casually and completely as you did when you stated in blanket terms, "Reed was not good before his injury".I was simply debating your original, sweeping assertion, which was easy to at least partially refute.


#40 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 09 May 2019 - 09:13 AM

 

I'm not throwing out any months though. I'm using the assumption that he was healthy when he was on the field. Unless you have explicit evidence that the team, the medical staff, and himself all allowed him to pitch while injured.

 

Using the assumption that every player on the field is healthy is severely flawed in my opinion.Just last year, we saw Byron Buxton pressed into service when he was not healthy.If I remember correctly, Logan Morrison also played much of the year not truly healthy.Is it really so hard to believe that Reed either didn't disclose being hurt (not necessarily injured), or he was simply going out at 80-90% (which I'm sure many players do on a regular basis), and that simply erased his margin for error?Or do you have explicit evidence that the team, the medical staff, and himself all did NOT allow him to pitch while injured?




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