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Take Advantage of the Banked Wins

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#41 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 04:20 PM

 

FiveThirtyEight has the Twins now winning 90 games.

Even the most reactionary, knee-jerk fan, has nothing on these stats services.

 

"Oh, suddenly the Twins are good?" :)

 

 

edit: not an anti-538 post

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco, 30 April 2019 - 04:22 PM.

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#42 nicksaviking

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 04:49 PM

Well, Bumgarner isn't even 30 years old yet, so you figure there would be some chance of a renaissance. Although we wouldn't need him to be an ace to be valuable.


I feel better about renaissance pitchers when they have plus velocity and/or strikeout potential.

But like I said, I’d take a chance on Bumgarner.

#43 ashbury

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:12 PM

I’m certainly jiggy wit’ it...

"Dad, don't. Just ... don't." -- Everybody's daughter or son

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We laugh at gypsies, fortune tellers, and horoscopes, yet we trust baseball prospect lists.


#44 jorgenswest

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:30 PM

I think they would lose their third highest pick. Is that their second round pick overall number 54?

Just looked up the history of pick 54

Top 5 below

Scott Sanderson
Randy Wolf
Brett Tomko
Tommy Hunter
Steve Ontiveros

There were no significant pick 54s but I think it is about a 2% chance you land on a truly great player in that range.

I will take the greater certainty of Kimbrel for a few years without a second thought.

Edited by jorgenswest, 30 April 2019 - 05:30 PM.

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#45 jtkoupal

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:37 PM

 

Even the most reactionary, knee-jerk fan, has nothing on these stats services.

 

"Oh, suddenly the Twins are good?" :)

 

 

edit: not an anti-538 post

Pretty sure 538 had the Twins winning 85 games on Opening Day. Their team rating hasn't gone up much, but they assume neutral luck and have already surpassed their expected win total by a few games to this point. I, myself, am skeptical of that. I still think 90 is a tad lofty. I'm still in a "wait and see" mindset. But hey, ya never know! It's fun to get excited from time to time, unlike last year when it was pretty much over at this point.

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#46 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:55 PM

Pretty sure 538 had the Twins winning 85 games on Opening Day. Their team rating hasn't gone up much, but they assume neutral luck and have already surpassed their expected win total by a few games to this point. I, myself, am skeptical of that. I still think 90 is a tad lofty. I'm still in a "wait and see" mindset. But hey, ya never know! It's fun to get excited from time to time, unlike last year when it was pretty much over at this point.

Completely Agree! Not disputing the models, just trying to tweak some noses. It’s a long season. A lot will change between now and then. Great to be a fan right now.
He measured the achievements of others by what they had accomplished, asking of them that they measure him by what he envisaged or planned.
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#47 ashbury

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 06:36 AM

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

We laugh at gypsies, fortune tellers, and horoscopes, yet we trust baseball prospect lists.


#48 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 06:56 AM

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?


Sure, it's one game.
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#49 ashbury

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:18 AM

it's one game.

Of course. But that one game had a lot of texture to it, if you look.

We laugh at gypsies, fortune tellers, and horoscopes, yet we trust baseball prospect lists.


#50 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:29 AM

Of course. But that one game had a lot of texture to it, if you look.


Meh, I don't get caught up in the daily aspect of this team anymore. They're still 7 games over .500 at the end of April and banked a few wins this month.
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#51 Tomj14

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:38 AM

 

I think they would lose their third highest pick. Is that their second round pick overall number 54?

Just looked up the history of pick 54

Top 5 below

Scott Sanderson
Randy Wolf
Brett Tomko
Tommy Hunter
Steve Ontiveros

There were no significant pick 54s but I think it is about a 2% chance you land on a truly great player in that range.

I will take the greater certainty of Kimbrel for a few years without a second thought.

But you get say how great of prospect that pick is, until he isn't.


#52 Tomj14

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:43 AM

 

 

Meh, I don't get caught up in the daily aspect of this team anymore. They're still 7 games over .500 at the end of April and banked a few wins this month.

don't forget the night before they had a shut out.

Mejia has been terrible all year, and if they switched him (a relief pitcher from another team or a current FA) out like everybody has begging for that makes the bullpen much much better.


#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 08:10 AM

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?


Does it matter? If they are two, getting one gets them closer.

When does the FO act like they think this is a winning team? Because they haven't yet, imo. If they want better attendence, maybe the team should act like they are trying their hardest to win, at the FO level.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#54 howieramone2

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 09:58 AM

 

Does it matter? If they are two, getting one gets them closer.

When does the FO act like they think this is a winning team? Because they haven't yet, imo. If they want better attendence, maybe the team should act like they are trying their hardest to win, at the FO level.

If they want better attendance all they have to do is wait for it to warm up. Also the Cruz signing was a big win-now move. They are still evaluating their current bullpen arms, and yes mid-market teams never stop evaluating. Harper is likely gone and Magill is not helping his case. I would not be surprised to see Mejia and board favorite May disappear. They will make plenty of moves at the deadline.

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#55 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 10:02 AM

If they want better attendance all they have to do is wait for it to warm up. Also the Cruz signing was a big win-now move. They are still evaluating their current bullpen arms, and yes mid-market teams never stop evaluating. Harper is likely gone and Magill is not helping his case. I would not be surprised to see Mejia and board favorite May disappear. They will make plenty of moves at the deadline.


They'll probably get more walk up sales as it warms up, but the number of season ticket holders is what it is. I assume the 12k number that keeps popping up is the amount of season ticket holders.

People who actually purchase the tickets would know more than me... Don't they have to commit to another season by December/January? The decrease in ST holders could be a result of this FO making their moves in March instead of December/January.
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#56 howieramone2

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 10:17 AM

 

They'll probably get more walk up sales as it warms up, but the number of season ticket holders is what it is. I assume the 12k number that keeps popping up is the amount of season ticket holders.

People who actually purchase the tickets would know more than me... Don't they have to commit to another season by December/January? The decrease in ST holders could be a result of this FO making their moves in March instead of December/January.

I'm not a season ticket holder, but go to 15-20 games per year, only when it's warm. I played college baseball in North Dakota and I'm still thawing out.

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#57 yarnivek1972

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 11:32 AM

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?


Sure, if that pitcher is Sandy Koufax.
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#58 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 11:35 AM

 

If they want better attendance all they have to do is wait for it to warm up. Also the Cruz signing was a big win-now move. They are still evaluating their current bullpen arms, and yes mid-market teams never stop evaluating. Harper is likely gone and Magill is not helping his case. I would not be surprised to see Mejia and board favorite May disappear. They will make plenty of moves at the deadline.

 

I'm not interested in more building for the future anymore....so I hope they are buying at the deadline, not selling.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#59 howieramone2

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 11:55 AM

 

I'm not interested in more building for the future anymore....so I hope they are buying at the deadline, not selling.

I'm sure they will sell some of the expiring contracts for prospects, but they will make win-now moves. No reason you can't do both. Reed and Castro will probably not yield major league ready pitching, but presumably have trade value if healthy. 

 

Depending on who they decide to retain, we should be able to get pen arms for Gibson, Pineda, and/or Ordirizzi. 

Edited by howieramone2, 01 May 2019 - 11:56 AM.


#60 jkcarew

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Posted 01 May 2019 - 12:15 PM

 

After yesterday's 11-0 debacle, does anyone still think we're one pitcher away?

I don't. And didn't. At least in terms of being good in the context of the league. So, I'm with you there.

 

Club is only beating one type of team. Bad ones. Non-divisional opponents that are not Baltimore...record 5-9; run differential...62-83.

 

Thing is, in 2019, you can win an AL Central with that. Sometimes punting is the right thing to do...but it's going to be awkward if the FO finds themselves in a position of punting on a division title.

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